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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

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Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#391

Post by JKCalhoun »

Geee wrote: post #284

General purpose humanoid robots. They're kind of mainstream idea, but very few people talk about them or take them seriously. Humanoid robots will have an absolutely massive impact in very near future. Most people don't realize that with general purpose humanoid robots, labor becomes software. Labor becomes repeateable, testable, simulatable, modular, extensible, verifiable, etc. All things that apply to software wil…

I don't know. When automation began to move into the factories toward the end of the last century I was promised that menial factory labor would be a thing of the past.

Instead, some bean counters figured out it was cheaper to manufacture overseas (where labor was cheaper still than robots?) and now we have no factories or industry to speak of left in the U.S.

Either human labor will always be cheaper than these humanoid robots or robot theft will become very lucrative (and then I suppose the winners are the robot insurance companies).

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#392

Post by abetusk »

aaronblohowiak wrote: post #332
abetusk wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the underlying idea is spot on, if not the specifics. Biology, sequencing, health, bioinformatics etc. is going to be huge business. As of this writing, I believe whole genome sequencing is in the range of $400 with the cost (slowly) dropping exponentially. When the cost of whole genome sequencing gets to be within $100 or below, we'll see a huge influx of whole genome sequencing and all the side effects that…

That $400 isn’t de novo is it?

Nebula genomics claims 30x coverage for $299 [0].

[0] https://nebula.org/whole-genome-sequencing-dna-test/

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#393

Post by polishdude20 »

Spakman wrote: post #377

I'm not nearly educated enough about this subject to try to summarise it, but the research being carried out by Michael Levin's group into how organisms control anatomy growth is completely fascinating and has the feel of a breakthrough. Almost all the talks I've seen are good, for example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-9rLlFgcm0 Creating new species without genetic changes seems wild!

Oh yeah I saw this a while ago on HN. Really mind blowing. I can definitely see us being able to regenerate limbs in the future because of this.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#394

Post by kickout »

markisus wrote: post #342
kickout wrote: post #208

Autonomous machines operating in farm land in the USA. Several billion dollar companies could be spun up. Ripe for the taking right now/

I heard about many companies in this space that have since shut down / become acquihired. Root AI acquired by AppHarvest [1], Abundant Robotics (shut down) [2], Traptic acquired by Bowery [3]. To me, this suggests that the problem is hard. Last I checked, the state of the art in robotic grasping seems similar to the state of many other AI systems before ML hit the scene. It's super-mathematized all to the questionabl…

The higher value crops (fruits, veggies) have different and more difficult problems than maize,soybean,wheat,cotton which are grown in huge fields with known parameters (thanks to precision planting, etc.). Having machines till the space between these rows would be an easy proof of concept. Syncing and coordinating multi machines in one field would be step two. There's 200M acres like this and farmers would be happy to pay between 10-100 _per acre_ depending on frequency and task performed.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#395

Post by thesuitonym »

tristor wrote: post #376
youngNed wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this 'people are rich because they are smart' is not a take i expected to find on HN. Its not quite as damaging as 'people are rich because they work harder' but its really not far off

Okay, rather than being pithy, perhaps you could explain succinctly why people are rich, then? Or perhaps you can admit that in many cases people have achieved moderate to high wealth in democratic free market societies by either working harder or worker smarter than their peers?

People are mostly rich because their parents were rich. Rich people do not come from poverty. Why is that? Do you think it's because impoverished people are not smart?

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#396

Post by spywaregorilla »

ChadNauseam wrote: post #247

Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…

If it starts happening, societies will face an existential threat in gender ratios.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#397

Post by JohnBooty »

colinmhayes wrote: post #383
rgrieselhuber wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of the truly rich today, can you honestly say that they are more attractive than average? I’m not seeing it. I’m not talking Hollywood level but much higher, generational wealth levels. I realize that it’s hard to get data on this but just anecdotally, there aren’t many examples that come to mind.

Depends on what you mean by “truly rich” I guess. Most of the tech billionaires come from upper middle class families. They don’t generally have trophy spouses. I do believe that the old money people i interact with are generally more attractive than average, yes.

I wonder how much of that is genetics and how much of that is lifelong access to excellent health care, nutrition, exercise, clothing, sleep, etc?

Being poor or even lower middle class is hard on the body. And it shows. Big time.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#398

Post by JKCalhoun »

emehex wrote: post #347

I'm not sure enough people are talking about Demographics and population decline, especially with respect to China. Some experts [1] predict that China's population in 2050 will be HALF of what it is today! [1] https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-xi-jinping-economics-...

Would that mean the population then will be much wealthier (as happened after the Black Plague)?

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#399

Post by irthomasthomas »

wenc wrote: post #340
irthomasthomas wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The quantity of CO2 needing to be dumped in to the atmosphere to manufacture new cars to meet this is going to be astronomical. The majority of the CO2 cost of a car is in the manufacturing. I don't understand why they are doing this?

> The majority of the CO2 cost of a car is in the manufacturing Is this true over the life time of the car? Studies indicate this may be a widely believed myth.

Is it a widely believed myth? Every time I mention it I only hear shock and disbelief. I almost never hear it talked about. I'd like to read that paper, though.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#400

Post by philwelch »

youngNed wrote: post #364
philwelch wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rich people already have children who are more intelligent and attractive than average. They do this via mechanisms like “being intelligent enough to get rich, or at least not being stupid enough to go broke” and “being rich enough to marry hot people and have kids with them”. I don’t know if polygenetic testing is going to have a significant effect, but if it does, there is going to be a significant generation gap i…

this 'people are rich because they are smart' is not a take i expected to find on HN. Its not quite as damaging as 'people are rich because they work harder' but its really not far off

Being smart and working hard will both make most people richer than being stupid and lazy. There’s a share of luck, but that washes out in the population-wide statistical analysis. Plus, if you’re stupid and lazy but you max out on luck and win the Powerball, the odds are surprisingly high that you will eventually go bankrupt, and if you don’t, your children will. So even if you are lucky, you need to be smart and diligent enough not to fuck it up.
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