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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

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Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#381

Post by philwelch »

Teever wrote: post #301
ChadNauseam wrote: post #247

Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…

I'm going to piggyback on your comment by saying that preimplantation polygenetic testing is only the start of what I feel is broader impending reproductive revolution. Not only are we going to be able to start modifying zygotes like you've mentioned, we're going to be able to start generating them from any genetic material available[0], and bringing them to term in an artificial womb[1]. This is going to fundamental…

> Not only are we going to be able to start modifying zygotes like you've mentioned, we're going to be able to start generating them from any genetic material available[0], and bringing them to term in an artificial womb[1].

And then you can bypass the entire “we don’t know which genes do what” problem because we can just clone people who have whatever qualities we want.

Well, maybe. It turns out your first citation has been validated in mice, and if that was the gold standard, we’d be able to put people into suspended animation (this totally works with mice but not larger mammals) among 1000 other things that never panned out.

If you go back a little bit, there are a ton of things (like suspended animation) that briefly seemed extremely promising and never panned out, and they outnumber the things that actually panned out by about 10:1.

I honestly think that even if this sort of thing was possible, it might be politically regulated out of existence or even out of being developed. We cloned a sheep in the 1990’s, but still no human.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#383

Post by colinmhayes »

rgrieselhuber wrote: post #375
colinmhayes wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rich people already have children that are more attractive than average. Being attractive is the biggest signal for generational wealth which reinforces the need for trophy spouses which reinforces the signal and so on.

Of the truly rich today, can you honestly say that they are more attractive than average? I’m not seeing it. I’m not talking Hollywood level but much higher, generational wealth levels. I realize that it’s hard to get data on this but just anecdotally, there aren’t many examples that come to mind.

Depends on what you mean by “truly rich” I guess. Most of the tech billionaires come from upper middle class families. They don’t generally have trophy spouses. I do believe that the old money people i interact with are generally more attractive than average, yes.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#384

Post by dereg »

Teever wrote: post #301
ChadNauseam wrote: post #247

Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…

I'm going to piggyback on your comment by saying that preimplantation polygenetic testing is only the start of what I feel is broader impending reproductive revolution. Not only are we going to be able to start modifying zygotes like you've mentioned, we're going to be able to start generating them from any genetic material available[0], and bringing them to term in an artificial womb[1]. This is going to fundamental…

To provide a counterpoint to a couple of the examples you provided:

> Imagine the shock to paternity law once some unscrupulous individual obtains a celebrities DNA through some discarded water bottle and generates children from it to demand child support payments with.

This already happens with women who try to sabotage condoms and/or collect the specimen after the fact. The rapper Drake has put the phenomena in the spotlight. If this becomes an actual problem, court systems will likely adjust to the times and require a higher burden of proof for paternity claims.

> This already happens How will organized sports handle genetically modified players being vastly superior to ungenetically modified?

China already does extensive genetic modification by way of selective reproduction. Basketball player Yao Ming was the product of a forced marriage between two tall, Chinese basketball players. He was a truly great player until he became plagued by injuries, likely due to overwork. I don’t think that anybody raised any objections due to the (un)fairness of his provenance. In the future, I think that social stigmas will provide an effective barrier to excessive over screening.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#385

Post by mattbrewsbytes »

throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

I would love to see some company produce components someone could purchase and replace an ICE engine with to make it an EV. I'm not talking 300 mile range EV with fancy software, etc. just basic stuff like a battery pack sized to replace a gas tank, electric motor and other components, etc. Some kit that you could take a modern-ish Corolla/Civic and turn it into a 100mi range EV which could satisfy a ton of households that have 2nd/3rd cars. Would be really neat to have them be more like PC components than proprietary.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#386

Post by marcus0x62 »

maverick74 wrote: post #237
throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

What amazes me is how little we talk about hydrogen (H2) fuel cell vehicles. Because, unless we get a tremendous breakthrough in the next 5 years, electric battery vehicles will be a very big pain. -Batteries are terribly expensive (and prices are not going down as fast as expected) -Batteries degrade too fast -Batteries take too long to charge -Electricity prices are already going up terribly fast to take advantage…

> Can we bet a little more on the most abundante substance on the universe?

One of those problems is there is no abundant source of hydrogen in isolated form here on earth. You have to use a catalytic agent or an energy-intensive process like electrolysis to get usable hydrogen for your fuel cell.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#387

Post by trgn »

I'll propose a more utopian future. The end of modernism and a return to humanism. A realization in the West that fetishizing technology has turned people into widgets. A genuine bottom-up counter movement that already exists today, but will be the mainstream. Man will yet again be measure of all things, rather than adapt to the measure. In practice; things like the triumph of the walkable city; more home schooling; disappearance of wage labor and more unionization, cooperative work-arrangements, stock-compensation; the extended family as the main arrangement to raise children; bans on social media and pornography; more GDPR and privacy-laws, ...

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#388

Post by s1artibartfast »

CakeEngine wrote: post #310
ChadNauseam wrote: post #247

Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…

This is only a problem is there's a clear mapping from detectable genetic feature to an expressed macro-feature like intelligence. My (admittedly limited) understanding is that each detectable genetic feature has a whole panoply of effects, some of which wont' be apparent at birth. Selecting for intelligence through specific genes is like to also be selecting for weak bones, reduced longevity, or other unpredictable…

This has been out of the box already for a while. You can literally have your embryo commercially screened for intelligence, height, and other complex traits today

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#389

Post by Sargos »

Lordarminius wrote: post #42
sacrosanct wrote: post #4

Clean Energy, Water Desalination, Nigeria's crackdown on anonymous SIM cards, Monkeypox, Separation of Church & State in a post-Roe world, Computer chips made out of light, The managed decline of Britain, Crackdowns on E2E encrypted messaging apps, Quantum-resistant cryptography, Tesla cars charged by burning coal.

>...Nigeria's crackdown on anonymous SIM cards Nigerian here, also an opponent of the present government, but why would a crackdown on anonymous SIM cards be an issue for debate ?

> Nigerian here, also an opponent of the present government, but why would a crackdown on anonymous SIM cards be an issue for debate ?

It's a very authoritarian move to threaten privacy and prevent people having free access to the internet. It hurts people at a minimum and causes the deaths of the most vulnerable in society at worst. Definitely up for debate and probably not one the Nigerian government can win in a fair debate.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#390

Post by bilsbie »

CalRobert wrote: post #152
philwelch wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we have to introduce population control it will be to increase the population. All developed countries are below replacement.

Is that bad? Surely we can manage with fewer than 8 billion people. A gradual reduction should be welcomed.

The more people we have the more specialization we can have. Do you want 1000 people designing a jet engine or 20?

What problems could we solve if we doubled the scientists and engineers working on it?

Plus every new birth is a lottery ticket for our civilization getting the next Einstein.

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