Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010) • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#381

Post by Dylan16807 » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 9:03 PM UTC

kempbellt wrote: post #328

Dylan16807 wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm also an innocent bystander! ryacko is perfectly clearly stating that Electron reduces the amount of training that developers need. This is different from making them develop faster. It just makes them more replaceable. I have no idea how to parse twobat's question. The "or" is especially confusing. I'm not surprised that ryacko is baffled by it.

Training is an abstract term these days. Could've meant training an algorithm, or training a person, depending on context. Hence the training for "what" or for "who" not being immediately parseable. Until @ryacko said "Whom do you think I'm talking about?", I wasn't sure either.

Electron gives you a UI and some standard library stuff. That's pretty obviously a totally separate issue from training an algorithm... I think? Am I missing something?

I still think asking "what or who?" with no other elaboration is really confusing. It's such a vague question that you have to guess how to answer, and it's super easy to answer it in a way that doesn't satisfy what the asker actually meant to ask.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#382

Post by Dylan16807 » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 9:05 PM UTC

ianleeclark wrote: post #374

SlowRobotAhead wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s exactly what the lists of “4375 school shootings this year!” are actually made of. Someone in New Jersey shot a rat 2 blocks from a school - school shooting. Drive by between rival gangs near a college - school shooting. Resource officer discharges his gun in his car - school shooting.

Well, they're comprised of that, and, y'know, children being murdered in mass.

Those should not be put in the same category.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#383

Post by maerF0x0 » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 9:42 PM UTC

TulliusCicero wrote: post #54

haunter wrote: post #5

IsaacL nailed it the best https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027093 And surprisingly the WoW one is the most off :D

> - As Moore's Law marches on, dynamic languages that are even slower than Ruby are likely to catch on. They may be to Ruby what Ruby is to Java, trading even more programmer time for CPU time. Interesting how plausible this one is, yet turned out to be terribly wrong: the newer hyped languages that got some uptake were largely compiled ones like Swift, Rust, Kotlin, and Dart.

> Swift, Rust, Kotlin, and Dart

and golang (Go)

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#384

Post by jashmatthews » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 9:46 PM UTC

kragen wrote: post #339

jashmatthews wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google’s marketing for Chrome and V8 was incredibly effective. We’ve basically forgotten that Mozilla, Adobe and Apple were pushing JS perf long before V8 was released. Memory usage of early V8 was atrocious and real world performance was barely improved over Safari and Firefox but Google dominated dev mindshare for a decade.

No, Mozilla and Apple didn't release their JIT engines until after Chrome (though I think at least Apple was working on theirs) and so when Chrome came out JS immediately got about 4x faster, which was a bigger improvement than had happened over the entire previous lifetime of JS. Popular web pages didn't immediately get 4x faster, because they had carefully avoided doing anything in JS if its performance mattered, b…

Apple built the Sunspider benchmarks in 2007, and along with Mozilla, they made dramatic real world performance improvements before Chrome was even publicly announced.

https://webkit.org/blog/152/announcing-sunspider-09/ https://webkit.org/blog/214/introducing-squirrelfish-extreme...

Chrome + V8 was already behind in real world performance, not ahead!

http://www.satine.org/archives/2008/09/19/squirrelfish-extre...

Macromedia (later Adobe) funded a whole bunch of JIT research as the Tamarin Tracing project, which was shared with Firefox as TraceMonkey. The NanoJIT assembly backend was actually shared code.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#385

Post by freehunter » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 9:50 PM UTC

jbigelow76 wrote: post #134

king_magic wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the Microsoft prediction is even more off...

My gut response to his thought of MS pivoting to consulting a la IBM was way off but after thinking about it for a minute you could kind of make a case that Azure is a form of "self-serve operationalized consulting", he was just off on it's impact and success by a factor of 50 or 100.

I heard someone recently describe the value proposition of enterprise cloud like IBM and Azure as “not having to talk to a sales guy as a service”.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#386

Post by jashmatthews » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 9:53 PM UTC

igouy wrote: post #356

jashmatthews wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google’s marketing for Chrome and V8 was incredibly effective. We’ve basically forgotten that Mozilla, Adobe and Apple were pushing JS perf long before V8 was released. Memory usage of early V8 was atrocious and real world performance was barely improved over Safari and Firefox but Google dominated dev mindshare for a decade.

fwiw n-body 2009 10x JavaScript V8 211.76 secs 100x Ruby 1.9 #2 34 min 106x JavaScript TraceMonkey 36 min http://web.archive.org/web/20090705014239/http://shootout.al...

Real world performance was the opposite story, with Safari's super efficient bytecode VM out performing V8s JIT: http://www.satine.org/archives/2008/09/19/squirrelfish-extre...

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#387

Post by SamReidHughes » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 9:53 PM UTC

bjz_ wrote: post #282

guidoism wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm actually pretty amazed at what the Javascript VM people have done in the past decade. It's way more than I ever expected. As far as the carbon footprint, well, yeah, it depends. At Google I remember a friend talking about how he cringed whenever he added more code to the pipeline that ingests the entire internet. He said that he wondered how much extra carbon was release into the atmosphere just because of his st…

> At Google I remember a friend talking about how he cringed whenever he added more code to the pipeline that ingests the entire internet. He said that he wondered how much extra carbon was release into the atmosphere just because of his stupid code. I wish companies were under more financial pressure to actually track and mitigate this. (hint hint, carbon taxes)

If you run your data centers where electricity is cheap, you're using electricity but not emitting very much carbon dioxide.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#388

Post by jonny_eh » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 9:54 PM UTC

SlowRobotAhead wrote: post #369

jonny_eh wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it so bad to make guns as hard to own as a car? Simple licensing would go a long way to reduce the risk of guns. https://www.vox.com/2019/9/11/20861019/gun-solution-backgrou...

> Is it so bad to make guns as hard to own as a car? The ONLY people that say this are the ones that would be (fucking) horrified if we treated guns like cars. Ok. You are proposing I should be able to buy any gun I want whenever I want regardless of size or capacity, automatic, or loud or silenced for cash without any checks or regulations at all? That the only requirement to use it in public is that I need a licens…

> Ok. You are proposing I should be able to buy any gun I want whenever I want regardless of size or capacity, automatic, or loud or silenced for cash without any checks or regulations at all?

What? No.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#389

Post by freehunter » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 9:54 PM UTC

chx wrote: post #201

areis wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair, but OP (DanielBMarkham) was only 2 days off on his prediction that "major changes will happen in Iran."

The way he phrased pointed to an internal change, not something like this.

I remember Iran had very large scale protests in 2009 leading into 2010, so that was probably on their mind, thinking it would lead to some kind of radical change.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#390

Post by jonny_eh » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 9:56 PM UTC

SkyBelow wrote: post #376

jonny_eh wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it so bad to make guns as hard to own as a car? Simple licensing would go a long way to reduce the risk of guns. https://www.vox.com/2019/9/11/20861019/gun-solution-backgrou...

Last I checked, cars do not require any licensing to own. They require special licensing and often times yearly taxes to operate on public roads (but merely possessing them on public roads does not).

You need to register the car, and that often requires proof of insurance, which requires a driver's license. Either way, my point still stands. You're quibbling over semantics. So few people want to buy a car just to not drive it, that we don't even consider it a problem.