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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#371
A few from me:

* The US economy will maintain the post war status quo. The decade will feature no more than two but probably one recession which will have been trigger by an "X bubble" where X is something everybody uses (e.g. housing or tech). Rich people and "corporations" will be blamed, but no meaningful economic reforms will be passed. UBI will remain a fringe idea, and not be implemented federally or in any of the 50 states, though it will remain quite popular on the internet and in the Democratic primary. The labor force participation rate will drop as boomers retire, but not precipitously, and the rate of drop will slow by 2030. However, this drop will also lead to sustained growth in real (inflation adjusted) wages. Recessions will feature unemployment around 10% and non-recessions will feature unemployment around 5%. Many tech nerds will still regard 80% of jobs as useless and not producing any value.

* Britain will leave the EU fully, but not significantly decline as a worldwide power.

* Global warming will continue and remain basically unsolved.

* The CCP will continue to rule China as an authoritarian regime.

* Mexico will still be controlled by cartels

* India will still be struggling to describe itself as a "modern nation" but will periodically experience various scandals that seem decidedly third world.

* The middle east will still be a mess of competing militias funded by external empires (China, US, Russia), however the US will not formally invade any country with the intention of displacing their government (a la Iraq/Afghanistan).

* The last nuclear bomb used in a war will continue to be 1945/WW2.

* Another WACO or similar domestic terrorist - FBI/DEA/TLA standoff will occur and catch headlines, leading to the fringe group mostly being killed by the government, which will result in many angry words in the press but no meaningful changes.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#373

* Moore's law stays dead. Having a lightweight laptop that does nothing more than provide a portal to more powerful machines enters the consumer field (Stadia already exists, but other uses will appear). Probably offered by an existing cloud provider first. * Recession happens this decade. * Someone becomes the US democratic nominee with a UBI platform. * The US gets single payer healthcare. * Zoning laws become an e…

> Recession happens this decade. After any other decade, nobody would bother to say that, because of course there would be a recession (if not more) in the next decade. It is amazing that the 2010s didn't have one. But, as you say, amazing usually doesn't continue forever...

Recessions happen roughly once a decade so it’s a pretty safe prediction.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#374
Here's some

1. Civil war in China

2. A new, significant non iOS/Android OS in mobile

3. Uber/Lyft will gradually shift to a unionized, national taxi company

4. Nothing significant will be done about Climate Change, and it won't matter. Some new environmental issue will be talked about instead.

5. A third political party will become significant in the US

6. There will be a major Christian missionary movement from the global south to Europe

7. VR gaming won't be much of a thing (ie like 3d movies)

8. Tesla will go out of business

9. Commonplace purchases will increasingly be made with point-of-sale loans and/or monthly leases. This will increase economic disparity (rich people will buy stuff / get better rates, poor people will rent things / can never get ahead)

10. Software development will still be a relatively specialized, niche field, with most people not knowing much about it. It won't be more "diverse"

11. Health insurance, higher education, housing and tax preparation will all still be crazy complex and expensive in the US

12. You'll finally be able to pump your own gas in New Jersey

13. Most churches will lose their tax exempt status

14. Texas will have more people than California

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#375

* Moore's law stays dead. Having a lightweight laptop that does nothing more than provide a portal to more powerful machines enters the consumer field (Stadia already exists, but other uses will appear). Probably offered by an existing cloud provider first. * Recession happens this decade. * Someone becomes the US democratic nominee with a UBI platform. * The US gets single payer healthcare. * Zoning laws become an e…

"Having a lightweight laptop that does nothing more than provide a portal to more powerful machines enters the consumer field"

Ah, the return of the X Terminal, dinosaur of the 1980s and early-mid 1990s. If that, because it barely even lived.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#376
1. Sustainable electricity will dominate and the cost of electricity will shrink to near zero.

2. Manufacturing will catch a second wind. As software principles and cheap electricity take effect, the cost of experimentation will fall and we will become agile at creating physical products, from smart devices to city blocks.

3. Automobile traffic will get worse.

4. At the end of the decade, cities will begin a redesign phase with the intention of solving human problems. This will be hastened by major gains in manufacturing and improved understandings in biological science.

5. We will see the first generation of children growing up with primary personal computers that don’t rely on visual interfaces.

6. Depression and mental illness will become an increasingly major political focus.

7. Olfactory “AR” will offer a consumer product breakthrough involving near-direct emotional and memory manipulation.

8. China will begin mass application of genetic modification of humans.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#378
• Bay Area real estate will drop

• At least one tech giant will be broken up due to antitrust proceedings. Privacy legislation will dramatically increase

• Data blackmarkets will grow substantially. (Now they are just known as markets)

• The deep web will grow, as more legitimate businesses move there to prevent censorship from other companies. Investigative journalists will also flock to the deep web for the same reasons, and for reasons of physical safety

• WebAssembly will grow, creating competition that will usurp javascript's market share

• A wasm-based framework will become popular and power cross-platform native apps

• YC companies will reach $1T aggregate in value

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#379

Here's some 1. Civil war in China 2. A new, significant non iOS/Android OS in mobile 3. Uber/Lyft will gradually shift to a unionized, national taxi company 4. Nothing significant will be done about Climate Change, and it won't matter. Some new environmental issue will be talked about instead. 5. A third political party will become significant in the US 6. There will be a major Christian missionary movement from the…

One more:

1. The advent of an artificial womb will toss a wrench in the abortion debate

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#380
- USA experiences a massive moral alignment, much like Victorian England. A number of things considered normal in 2020 will be "immoral" and illegal, much like how swearing on TV was illegal in the 1970s

- This new morality, invented almost whole cloth with very little taken from religions, will cause widespread unrest in heavily religious areas

- Civil war happens as major coastal cities with new morality laws grow more distant from the central plains population

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