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Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

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Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is just pointless smug contrarianism, I hope you're just in a bad mood and don't really believe or think this way regularly. Mining trucks are excellent candidates for battery electrification, Volvo is already building and selling them. What other things do you think are never happening that are infact already happening?

I really doubt it makes sense to use electric vehicles for mining, but I could be wrong. I guess we'll be able to see in the coming years what fraction of mining vehicles are electric. But what is wrong about what I stated? It's obviously impossible for solar to approach $0 because of the large material costs inherent in manufacturing solar panels and transporting electricity. This is not contrarianism, it's realism.…

> I really doubt it makes sense to use electric vehicles for mining, but I could be wrong. I guess we'll be able to see in the coming years what fraction of mining vehicles are electric.

They're slow-moving, inherently massive and heavy, and travel relatively short distances per round-trip. So they don't care much about battery weight, size or limited range, and appreciate the massive torque from low RPMs.

It's kind of an ideal case for a battery-swapping BEV system. Just wait for the battery costs and energy densities to both improve and this will be a no-brainer. They can charge the drained battery on the grid from cheaper/cleaner sources while the other is busy hauling a load.

Of course if the terrain is such that the mine is on the top of a mountain ascended empty but descended full, you don't even need battery swapping, it'll recharge on the descent.

Nobody wants to spend money owning and operating those diesel engines if they don't have to. When the BEV option is available and makes business sense they'll switch immediately. They'll require little maintenance, and you don't need specially trained technicians to swap batteries and order new ones when they need replacing.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#362
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who's going to pay for it?

As one example, imagine that someone invents a process to manufacture gasoline using carbon extracted from the air, at a price that's cost competitive with gasoline extracted from the ground. Any car running on that as fuel would immediately become carbon-neutral, and it could be produced anywhere on the planet. Almost overnight you could make the entire automotive industry carbon neutral (burning this gasoline would…

There's a tipping point where it becomes unprofitable to keep existing gas stations open. Then due to lack of available fueling options ICE vehicles rapidly decline. The same thing could happen with financing - as soon as lease payments and average electricity costs are less than monthly fuel costs, the incentive to go ICE will rapidly decline. Especially if range is similar to gas. Not quite there yet.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is just pointless smug contrarianism, I hope you're just in a bad mood and don't really believe or think this way regularly. Mining trucks are excellent candidates for battery electrification, Volvo is already building and selling them. What other things do you think are never happening that are infact already happening?

I really doubt it makes sense to use electric vehicles for mining, but I could be wrong. I guess we'll be able to see in the coming years what fraction of mining vehicles are electric. But what is wrong about what I stated? It's obviously impossible for solar to approach $0 because of the large material costs inherent in manufacturing solar panels and transporting electricity. This is not contrarianism, it's realism.…

While I wanted to agreee it's just contrarianism, he has a point. Mine electrification is going to come very, very slowly. There are 2 principal reasons,

1) mines run on a 24/7 schedule. There is not enough down time to charge batteries in a shift and with how completely filthy machines get we need better solutions for battery swapping in mining before that becomes an option, and

2) because (like the mine I am at right now) a non-negligible number of mines are far from grids or clean power sources, a lot of battery power would come from fossil fuels burned near the mine.

There is interest, but most of the actual use seems fairly superficial (public image boosts).

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#365
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who's going to pay for it?

As one example, imagine that someone invents a process to manufacture gasoline using carbon extracted from the air, at a price that's cost competitive with gasoline extracted from the ground. Any car running on that as fuel would immediately become carbon-neutral, and it could be produced anywhere on the planet. Almost overnight you could make the entire automotive industry carbon neutral (burning this gasoline would…

This could start an ice age

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, UiPath's valuation is currently 7B... But yeah. They have an "academy" for training RPA developers, forums/ social presence, big sales teams, a process for developing automation, an "automation framework", a marketplace for automation activities, etc.... all these are stuff outside of the core software (robot/"activity executor", orchestrator, and studio for designing said activities). Maintaining & expanding t…

Right on! Yeah - I would love to learn more about what the bigger guys are doing. Everything you're saying is 100% something I deal with on a day-to-day basis, and ongoing support is a huge struggle to workout with the companies I've implemented software at. Looking at your product offerings made me chuckle - I definitely have versions of a lot of what you do! My robots are called workers, my orchestrator is called a…

A big challenge with the Blue Prism world is getting the people who will lose their jobs to map the processes Robotic processes will automate. Fiddly, tricky and easy to automate a vast number of errors. Only works once extensively tested and results verified. Ignore analyst and sales hype at your peril.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay, how about the copper that transports that electron to somewhere it can do useful work? How about the 1800C furnace that melts sand into the silicon for the solar panel? How about the diesel fuel that the massive mining trucks used to haul the copper ore out of the mine are fueled with (these things are heavy and get something like 8 gallons to the mile (not a typo) good luck running them on batteries)? Those th…

> How about the 1800C furnace that melts sand into the silicon for the solar panel I wonder if a process similar to that used for molten salt batteries, using reflected, concentrated sunlight, could be used to melt sand into what is needed for more solar panels, electronics etc, and use the stored energy while it cools off, essentially combining the processes? And of course for other [s]melting processes powered by f…

Why not just use an electrical furnace and power that with solar power?

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#368
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was going to say. Many companies are already investing heavily in RPA (Robotic Process Automation) these days. It’s not widely known in tech circles but kind of common knowledge in traditional companies trying to automate tedious workflow tasks. When I first saw it, I thought: this looks like a glorified Autohotkey or Automator. But companies like UiPath are doing very well selling this type of automation software.…

> Autohotkey Yep I've had to employ this software to get things done before. Also OCR doesn't need a cloud vs. a beefy computer - I do a lot of that too.

Yes free OCR software itself is pretty simple and can run offline but if your accuracy requirements are high (for critical documents), different algorithms (typically proprietary) are needed and as well as fallbacks to contracted human labor for verification. At some level it makes sense to outsource to a cloud provider.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#369
post #167
post #53

Climate change will create the first trillionaire. Find everything that eats fossil fuels and electrify it. Find everything that requires stable land and predictable weather and put it in a shipping container. Find every infrastructure investment that requires decades to pay off and decentralize it. Instead of water line pipes, pull water out of the air. Instead of copper and fiber optic cables on telephone poles, us…

I'm pessimistic about governments coming together and coordinating an expensive effort to avert climate change. I also think the world is on a course to become increasingly divided and rivalrous, such that collaboration would be less likely, and nations less willing to compromise on their economic competitiveness. I think if there is an effort made (which there will probably have to be), it'll be something cheap and…

It won't be governments that avert climate change, it'll be individuals acting in their own self-interest.

This might be violent (everybody kills their neighbors, reducing the population and hence greenhouse emissions), or it might be economic (as fossil fuel prices rise, renewables become increasingly price-competitive, such that some people end up making a lot of money electrifying the world). Personally I'm rooting for the economic solution.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you go about developing skill in experimental design?

I think the first step is to develop a skeptics mindset. As a scientist, your job isn't to believe, its to address evidence and evaluate whether or to it supports or conflicts with a given hypothesis. A profound influence on my development in the sciences was a older (he was 55+ at the time), physical chemist I shared an office with,'John'. Arguably, he was one of the greatest critical thinkers I had ever had the pri…

How does this apply to ML, beyond the usual train/validation/test split?
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