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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

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Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#351

Post by HideousKojima »

maverick74 wrote: post #237
throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

What amazes me is how little we talk about hydrogen (H2) fuel cell vehicles. Because, unless we get a tremendous breakthrough in the next 5 years, electric battery vehicles will be a very big pain. -Batteries are terribly expensive (and prices are not going down as fast as expected) -Batteries degrade too fast -Batteries take too long to charge -Electricity prices are already going up terribly fast to take advantage…

Biggest problem with hydrogen is the lack of refueling infrastructure. With electric, there's an electrical grid to build chargers on top of and worst case you can charge in your garage etc. With hydrogen we would need to create tons of new gas stations designed for hydrogen as well as the delivery vehicles, refineries, etc. to supply them. I've got a relative who works for Toyota (who are making significant investments in hydrogen) and he said most of their current efforts are on semi truck fleets where they only need hydrogen stations at a few locations along a pre-determined route.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#352

Post by JKCalhoun »

maverick74 wrote: post #237
throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

What amazes me is how little we talk about hydrogen (H2) fuel cell vehicles. Because, unless we get a tremendous breakthrough in the next 5 years, electric battery vehicles will be a very big pain. -Batteries are terribly expensive (and prices are not going down as fast as expected) -Batteries degrade too fast -Batteries take too long to charge -Electricity prices are already going up terribly fast to take advantage…

If in the next five years electric battery vehicles become a very big pain, then I suspect you will hear about fuel cell cars ... or whatever the perceived pragmatic replacement is.

That we don't hear about hydrogen fuel cell vehicles actually suggests to me that they are not a viable option.

I presume, stupidly perhaps, that there are bigger thinkers than me (or certainly people in positions that have a lot more to lose or gain in this field) that have already counted the beans and still see the electric (battery) vehicles as the current future path of least resistance.

At the very least, swapping batteries for fuel cells seems to be a fundamentally simpler step than swapping ICE for electric. Going to electric cars generally, regardless of the source of power is a big move for the auto industry.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#353

Post by throw123123123 »

ChadNauseam wrote: post #247

Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…

Making smarter, healthier and more attractive people is a net good for society.

The moral issue is not "inequality", the moral issue is eugenics - building their behavior to your desire.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#354

Post by jollyllama »

motohagiography wrote: post #287

Reasoning it through, what don't people politely talk about? Sex, money, politics, and religion. Sex: the impact of the normalization of casual sex work on sustainable families, and how specific tech and financial services for managing single motherhood will be huge. Money: financial alternatives to emerging social credit based systems, grey markets, working class capital/savings flight, cyberpunk dystopia. Politics:…

The grey markets are intersecting with the parallel economies which are intersecting with the religious fringes.

I disagree with you on the sex one though, people are already having less sex. This is also intersecting with what you are saying about religion.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#356

Post by derefr »

kanzure wrote: post #344
dont__panic wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[Gattaca]( https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0119177/ ) is about the long term consequences of this exact technology for society. In particular, the consequences for the children born naturally who don't benefit from this tech. They don't get any say in the decision, but end up heavily penalized, barred from certain jobs for "safety" reasons, aren't desirable partners... an underclass of society.

"If the audience is supposed to accept that genetic determinism is true in Gattaca, then no amount of Vincent's hard work should make Vincent a hero. He's just a fraud. If the audience is not supposed to believe that in the world of Gattaca genetic determinism is true (that is, it's false), then it should be interpreted as a story of discrimination, and a story of the underdog's heroic hard work overcoming the negati…

Seems to me that genetic determinism doesn’t have to be “right” or “wrong”, but rather a sometimes-useful model that we other times do not allow to colour our views. I.e. we have weight classes and gender divides for sporting events (genetic determinism), but each person who meets a minimum threshold of competence (e.g. not in prison) gets an equal democratic vote.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#357

Post by neon_electro »

jensneuse wrote: post #23

Managing APIs like dependencies, with a package manager-like developer experience. (npm for APIs). The number of APIs is continuously growing. It's going to be impossible to manually manage API dependencies in the future. I wrote about our approach to solve the problem here: https://docs.wundergraph.com/docs/architecture/manage-api-de... I'm curious what others think of this problem space.

>It's going to be impossible to manually manage API dependencies in the future.

This feels like a significantly important assumption to truly prove out with target customers before relying on this assumption to build a product or business.

I'd love to hear more on what's changing in the future that may make this statement partially or fully true.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#359

Post by jollyllama »

People are aware of Deepfakes and AI generated media, and worried about it being used to generate fake news. I haven't seen a lot of talk about it being used to change our generally accepted histories, but I've been thinking about that for a while.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#360

Post by JKCalhoun »

CharlieDigital wrote: post #306
bko wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely. Do you believe this? I know its a stated goal, but is there anything to hold the company's accountable or is this just a promise? I can't imagine them giving up a cash cow and something they've been doing for decades. EV sales in the USU are 5.6% of the market. I just find the claim that these companies will just s…

> Do you believe this? There are a lot of built-in incentives for manufacturers to switch to electric once the market demand exists. Less moving parts to warranty means potentially less long-tail costs for parts as well as less capital allocation for potential warranty service claims paid to dealerships. Less moving parts that can fail. Less parts in general. AWD in electrics is typically done with a front and rear m…

> once the market demand exists

I suspect that is where many of us can disagree — the when.

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