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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#351

Post by jariel »

csomar wrote: post #338

Thinking about it from where I am right now, I don't think it is crazy. Let's think about it again: China, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan. They are countries which are very connected to each other; and yet, somehow, they managed to contain it. It's 'herd responsibility'. The people are applying social distancing and hygiene rules, that's why it's working. It's possible, as a knowledgeable politician, that y…

"that's why it's working"

It's only 'working' while the country is on lockdown, and FYI the country spirals towards economic meltdown.

If they come out of 'lockdown', then 'it stops working'.

See the paradox here?

I really have no clue: maybe we'll develop therapies, a better understanding, maybe a vaccine, but possibly this 'herd immunity' idea at least on some scale. I really don't know.

But coronavirus is not going to disappear in a few weeks, we know that.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#352

Post by tzs »

arcticbull wrote: post #186
enraged_camel wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is very wrong. While you yourself may not have contact with old people, you can still act as a vector and spread it to someone who does.

Indeed, which is why it's on them not to go out. So long as nobody who has contact with old folks goes out, we're basically doing the UK plan ad-hoc. The rule shouldn't be "nobody go out" the rule should be "nobody with exposure to the vulnerable should go out" -- and if they do, they're being totally irresponsible. I, however, am not, and I'm supporting the local economy.

Old people need groceries and medicine, which in many cases they will have to go out for. (Not everyone has delivery available, or can afford delivery). On those trips they are likely to encounter younger people, including the workers at the grocery stores and pharmacies.

Young people also need groceries and medicine, and through the grocery store and pharmacy they are then one step from people who are one step from older people.

It only takes a handful of steps for your "nobody with exposure to the vulnerable" to be close to an empty set.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#353

Post by roenxi »

milansm wrote: post #346
roenxi wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economy is a tool to get people goods and services. It is less important than life & death on a mass scale. 0.1% to 1% of the population unexpectedly dying is huge . If the government was implementing a plan that they had considered and prepared over a number of years, carefully assessed the evidence and weighed the options? Costs and benefits have been weighed and it is hard to ask for more. Government has no id…

I agree with what you just wrote. But, the premise is wrong, I think; We don’t know if lockdown now vs lockdown later (in UK’s case) will result with 0.1% vs 1% of life lost, respectively.

COVID-19 is rapidly becoming the centre of attention for the entire global medical community and every government on the planet. It threatens the wealth of billionaires and the power of the powerful. I have a remarkable amount of faith that progress on treatments and medical practices will be swift and impressive.

Delaying the pain by a month or two could well be an extremely good move.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#354

Post by radicalbyte »

tenpies wrote: post #309
lozenge wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(warning: conspiracy theory, but at least an original one) I'm thinking this only makes sense in the context of Brexit. Brexit will be a massive hit to the competitiveness of British businesses... somebody in government is hoping to counteract this by taking an approach different to the rest of Europe. If the UK's approach works, it will end up economically ahead of all the other European countries, something like th…

Counter-point: is Brexit Britain actually going to be worst off than post-pandemic EU or what's left of the EU? I don't think the risk of this pandemic approach is worthwhile, especially given how poorly the EU is doing in general. Terrible economy, catastrophic pandemic response, and the symbolism of countries closing borders on fellow EU states are all quite telling. By contrast Britain almost seems like it dodged…

Only the EU economy has been doing pretty well - much better than the UK has been.

I think that their strategy is more smoke and mirrors - they're looking for the massive uproar so that the public understands that what we're facing is the real deal and will accept the harsh restrictions to freedom better once they have to be made.

The damage caused by an extra day or two of waiting will be small in comparison to the benefits of good compliance.

Plus don't forget that it's the weekend. No schools. The schools won't be open on Monday.

Dominic Cummings and his team are sharp and extremely good at manipulating the exact group of unthinking idiots who would otherwise ignore curfews and restrictions..

I should also add: all of the other Western countries are doing the same thing, UK included. Do whatever is possible to keep the health system working until. Eventually you get herd immunity either via people getting it or a vaccination.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#355

Post by eli_gottlieb »

lozenge wrote: post #282
edouard-harris wrote: post #239

Here is a rule of thumb that will be familiar to many who manage risk in a professional capacity: The time to get creative is when you face a capped downside on the one hand, and an uncapped upside on the other. The time to get conservative is when you face the opposite condition. The reason for this rule is that creative policies almost never work; but when they work, they have a much higher chance of working extrao…

(warning: conspiracy theory, but at least an original one) I'm thinking this only makes sense in the context of Brexit. Brexit will be a massive hit to the competitiveness of British businesses... somebody in government is hoping to counteract this by taking an approach different to the rest of Europe. If the UK's approach works, it will end up economically ahead of all the other European countries, something like th…

I don't think killing a larger portion of Britons than of Continental Europeans is going to be good for the British economy.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#356

Post by lallysingh »

mirimir wrote: post #335
lallysingh wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

.. fewer elderly to take care of?

Although I'm personally offended, being unimaginably (for me) old, this does make some sense. After all, many countries have been angsty about demographic inversion. And SARS-CoV-2 could resolve that within a decade or less.

Apologies for the offense, but I was being serious for the reason you mentioned.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#357

Post by TeMPOraL »

btilly wrote: post #267

The UK government is criminally insane to the point that they should be locked up and shot. For every person who would die in the normal course of the disease, around 3 more needed hospitalization. The Wuhan experience showed that when hospitals are overwhelmed and cannot put them on ventilators, the fatality rate roughly doubles. The UK course of action is guaranteed to overwhelm local hospitals. At which point even…

> The UK government is criminally insane to the point that they should be locked up and shot.

This plan may end up with a coup once the body count starts racking up and people get angry.

BTW. this new plan reminds me of the plot of "V for Vendetta" movie.

(spoiler below)

In it, a fascist government took over by causing an epidemic that killed a hundred thousand people, used that to get itself into power, and promptly buried the evidence.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#358

Post by TheGallopedHigh »

knzhou wrote: post #227
ubercow13 wrote: post #212

Modelling disease spread seems like the kind of scientific endeavour that one can dedicate one's whole life to becoming an expert in, and many people presumably do. Considering that, why should anyone give much credence to a random medium article on the topic by a 'silicon valley tech executive'? (lol) There are 10's of thousands of scientific research papers [1], by scientists, on COVID-19 already, and this guy is j…

Because the models the government's epidemiologists are using explicitly don't account for all possible actions. Back when this was taking off in China, a bunch of epidemiologists came out and said it was completely uncontrollable there. They were wrong, because they hadn't accounted for the extreme actions the Chinese government was willing to take; it was not even a possibility in the models. The same story repeate…

You don’t think professional epidemiologists have not thought of these? There are many papers in the literature that discuss this.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#359

Post by brrrrr1 »

Jabbles wrote: post #348
brrrrr1 wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

may be a conspiracy theory, but as the uk gov is injecting only 30 bil in the economy while germany is injecting 600 billion shows the uk is financially in a weak position. if the country stops working the economy is bust. the uk _needs_ to be ahead of europe to stay afloat, so that these measures as a state of war, in which economic sovereignty can be lost unless some people die on the battle front.

You're confusing two different measures. The UK government has increased spending by £30B, £12B to be spent on tackling COVID 19. The Bank of England has suggested lending £190B to businesses in need. The roughly equivalent numbers appear to be 12B and 600B (Euros) for Germany. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/11/budget-2020-... https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2020/march/boe-measures... https://www.c…

thanks for the clarification, still a pretty small number considering. all i am saying is these numbers might explain the logic behind going against all scientific advice.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#360

Post by netsharc »

mschuster91 wrote: post #134
akerro wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Killing older population will provide £350M/weekly for the NHS and decrease financial gap between generations.

Good god, making the choice of killing people for saving on pension borders on Nazi-level eugenics.

It seems the UK bureaucracy, 2019, is very capable of that...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windrush_scandal

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