Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

Isn't Waymo part of Alphabet? Google won't let them easily go to a competitor I think that will dominate the world

- No new experimental result in fundamental physics not explained by the standard model of particle physics or GR. 70%

- No satisfactory theory of quantum gravity developed. 80%

- Lightspeed limit remains inviolable. 99%

- Some fusion project (eg. General Fusion or SPARC, not ITER) achieves break-even, (though likely reactors won't yet be in widespread use by 2030). 65%

- No AGI developed. 90%

- Another "AI winter" happens, as the current neural network boom runs out of steam. (To be clear, I think people will still use the techniques, but will gradually stop thinking that the field's accomplishments are all that impressive.) 65%

- Protein engineering improves dramatically. 90%

- Okay, "dramatically" is kind of a cop-out, so to name something more specific, biochemists will be able to engineer a molecular Turing Machine (a universal turing machine running with an RNA strand as the tape) Since a molecular Turing machine would be kind of useless for computation, I'm not saying people would actually build one, just that they would be able to if they wanted. 60%

- Another protein engineering prediction: Proteins that run on electrical current, rather than ATP. 50%

- Proteins that synthesize specific DNA or RNA sequences based on electrical signals they receive, allowing cheaper synthesis of arbitrary sequences. 40%

- Riemann hypothesis remains unsolved. 90%

- P vs NP remains unsolved. 95%

- P != NP if P vs NP is resolved. 70%

- Progress on aging research, but no single advance adds more than 5 years to expected lifespan. (5 years might accrue as a result of several different advances, though) 80%

- Universe not discovered to be a simulation. 99%

- Universe not discovered to be an "accidental simulation". (see Greg Egan's sci-fi story "Wang's Carpets" if you don't know what I mean here) 98%

- No intelligent alien life discovered. 97%

- No alien life discovered. 93%

EDIT: A few more:

- Ideas from logic programming languages are incorporated into some "mainstream" programming language(s), similarly to how python currently has some ideas from functional programming in it. 60%

- No new millennium prize problems solved. 70%

- Quantum computing still impractical for factoring crypto-sized numbers. 80%

- Quantum computing used to do something useful. 60%

Apple will continue to alienate their traditional consumers, but will maintain relevant through aggressive release cycles, new tech, and ecosystem lockin.

Electric cars will gain significant market share of new vehicles, but won't cross 50% of consumer cars.

Driverless cars will exist in a small sector of use cases.

Rick and Morty becomes this generation's South Park.

Gen Z will have less kids as they enter adulthood.

China's growth as a world power will let them get away with more human rights abuses.

A big recession/depression will start caused from student loan debt, an aging population, automation, stagnating wages, increasing rents, increasing wealth inequality, and climate change.

A well-thought out UBI and tax reform plan will be proposed and gain populist appeal.

There will be more large scale populist protests worldwide.

An antitrust case will be started against Google.

Public transit becomes much, much better

Fake meat increases to grow in popularity as veganism and vegetarianism increases in younger populations.

Some places will place a tax on red meat

There will be another high profile death ruled as a suicide that creates conspiracy theories.

Automation enters the market before proper legislation happens.

AI and deepfakes become heavily abused before becoming regulated, but the damage had already been done.

In general, legislation will happen too late.

Amazon will find a way to compete more directly with Google and Facebook. The internet becomes a worse off place because of it.

Adobe will release a cloud computing platform for their software.

Linux gains significant, but not competitive, market share as cloud based computing and postmarketOS become more consumer friendly.

Scientists will discover the secret to the universe is actually 43.

Cryptocurrency won't gain significant relevance

Climate change will continue to get worse and the market will continue to prevent dramatic change to happen.

Most people will still be complacent like they are today.

Cannabis will be legalized medicinally nationwide, but will remain illegal on the state level.

Ketamine treatment becomes easier to obtain and has better results vs placebo than other antidepressants.

Art continues to get worse

A republican presidential candidate will run on a platform "saving the children" that is only going to make the future worse but the present better.

Flavored vape juice will become legal again.

A high profile tech celebrity (Bezos, Gates, Musk, or a new startup probably) will win a Nobel Prize. Some HN'ers won't be happy about it.

Nuclear doesn't gain traction but still remains a pipe dream for a lot of people.

Natural disasters are going to cause massive problems, death, and some violence.

Netflix becomes close to being irrelevant but somehow stays competitive.

2) America will reform entitlements in the wake of a depression

3) China will become a serious regional aggressor

4) We debate capitalism vs socialism more often

5) We realize AI is a buzzword that won’t replace 40+% of jobs

6) Tech gets its 2 minutes of hate, we reject chinese style surveilence

7) Europe's decline quickens due to negative rates, low productivity, an aging population, indebtedness and unfunded obligations

8) Trump wins and the DNC reforms then runs 2024 on healthcare policy

9) Education gets slightly less liberal, prices will drop

10) FAANG's aggregate market cap won't recover its peak value before the next crash

11) Bitcoin crosses 40k