Are there any interesting Long Bets being made about the future success or failure of the metaverse? I could imagine making some money on the following: “by 2030, the number of VR users of the metaverse will be less than 1% of the number of users of other social media apps”. (Unless they pull some definitional stunt like saying “you used AR once on the Facebook app therefore we are counting you as a metaverse user”).
Ask HN: How is the “metaverse” concept different from the Second Life boom?
321–330 of 381 posts
Re: Ask HN: How is the “metaverse” concept different from the Second Life boom?
#322It’s simple really, and most commenters don’t “get” what is going on with all this. Remote communication tools like video conferencing fail to deliver what academics call “social presence”, which is the feeling of being together in unmediated communication. VR and AR have the necessary capabilities to do so, and deliver social presence on par with face to face. With a fully immersive experience, you can feel like you…
> That is the core capability that will disrupt all industry, it is more a matter of when not if.
Sure, but the "when" is trying to be forced down our throats. The media is perplexed by it in the same way they are about autonomous vehicles. We know its the future but tech oligarchs are trying to slam something down our throat with marketing/pr BS because they're scared shitless they'll lose their position on top of the throne. Most revolutionary tech has come from underdogs (Apple's iPod and iPhone come to mind, Zoom for video conferencing) and not from already established firms saying "this is the future, take this now".
Re: Ask HN: How is the “metaverse” concept different from the Second Life boom?
#323Earlier quoted context omitted.
Until we can see each other's faces in VR, this won't work for social presence. Shrinking everything down to contact lenses (even sunglasses get in the way of social contact) is likely to be beyond us for quite some while if ever. I'd rather not put something in my eye anyway. Further, VR does not work well for switching - you can't be in VR and scribble notes at the same time. AR might be an improvement, but not by…
What you’re posting here is “common knowledge”, but it is actually in conflict with social presence research. VR beats video conferencing even without any facial tracking, and the abject failure of video conferencing in the pandemic to replace most of the feeling of face to face communication should be enough to convince people there is merit to the studies that have been done showing it scores poorly. In VR you mult…
In what terms does it "beat it"? I still have Zoom meetings where people just dial-in, have crappy video, etc. In other words, video conferencing is still being adopted decades after it was introduced.
> In VR you multitask by bringing the computing environment into the virtual environment.
Multi-tasking isn't a real thing. The overhead from context switching is real and no amount of technology will improve this human deficiency.
Re: Ask HN: How is the “metaverse” concept different from the Second Life boom?
#324The metaverse tech (I.e. immersive VR) can create the illusion of being in the same room as another person.
The next iteration of the phone, radio, tv, internet, which each shrunk the world in turn.
Re: Ask HN: How is the “metaverse” concept different from the Second Life boom?
#325Earlier quoted context omitted.
Never say never. A “stuff” import seems like the kind of feature that would have to be copied by other platforms as soon as one does it, but there’s a chicken and egg aspect. I disagree with the whole “value of ownership” thing. Making knock off nfts is trivial, so this relies on people caring enough about provenance to police this and shame people that have knock offs in their virtual environment. Digital goods can…
> shame people that have knock offs in their virtual environment Because the bullying at school for having non-brand clothing or things wasn't enough. You'll need Supreme(TM) nfts, or become a digital pariah?
Re: Ask HN: How is the “metaverse” concept different from the Second Life boom?
#326Earlier quoted context omitted.
BAYC is light years beyond everything else in the NFT space. The way they've built a community and played up their cool factor to make you want to be a part of it all is impressive. Their parties this last week in NYC for NFT week pretty much locked them as the model to strive for. I don't know if others can do it, but they've set the standard.
> played up their cool factor C'mon. This is very "rich nerds desperately trying to be cool", it's not an actual thing that normal people will ever care about. We already have status symbols that you can show off in the real world.
Re: Ask HN: How is the “metaverse” concept different from the Second Life boom?
#327Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wouldn't use a non-FOSS platform or experience for non-corporate reasons. My employer wants me to use a particular hardware? Fine, but I'm not using my money for it, I won't like it, and I'll break it every chance I get. The idea that I will work and play in the metaverse is forever and eternally blocked by which particular group of assholes is trying to wrangle me. If it's a group that allows me the same access th…
I respect your opinion and completely understand where you are coming from, but I think you should also consider the amount of technical effort, organization and money required to build something like an open platform/protocol for the metaverse + all the advanced hardware required. It would be awesome if a group of strangers from the internet were able to band together and build this, but let's face it, they will hav…
Re: Ask HN: How is the “metaverse” concept different from the Second Life boom?
#328Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wouldn't use a non-FOSS platform or experience for non-corporate reasons. My employer wants me to use a particular hardware? Fine, but I'm not using my money for it, I won't like it, and I'll break it every chance I get. The idea that I will work and play in the metaverse is forever and eternally blocked by which particular group of assholes is trying to wrangle me. If it's a group that allows me the same access th…
I respect your opinion and completely understand where you are coming from, but I think you should also consider the amount of technical effort, organization and money required to build something like an open platform/protocol for the metaverse + all the advanced hardware required. It would be awesome if a group of strangers from the internet were able to band together and build this, but let's face it, they will hav…
Re: Ask HN: How is the “metaverse” concept different from the Second Life boom?
#329Earlier quoted context omitted.
I honestly don't know a single person with a oculus. Many with the PlayStation or the HTC one. I also barely know people that use Facebook. And many that are not willing to create a FB account for whatever reason. It's just anectotal. But I don't see how this walled garden will find any widespread use around here. Just as I know no one who uses Apples walled garden chats, simply because apple never reached a critical…
I think you may already be living in an alternate reality!
Re: Ask HN: How is the “metaverse” concept different from the Second Life boom?
#330Earlier quoted context omitted.
I honestly don't know a single person with a oculus. Many with the PlayStation or the HTC one. I also barely know people that use Facebook. And many that are not willing to create a FB account for whatever reason. It's just anectotal. But I don't see how this walled garden will find any widespread use around here. Just as I know no one who uses Apples walled garden chats, simply because apple never reached a critical…
Lol. Look up some statistics. Quest has a 75% market share, Facebook has more than 2 billion users, and there are more than 1 billion iPhone users.
Switzerland may is different, but also representative of a wealthy kinda smart economy.