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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#321

Post by qphe »

These are conservative predictions

- Software engineers will continue to get paid more and more.

- The bay area will not solve its infrastructure problem, leading to large amounts of remote work.

- China's housing bubble will pop and take down the global economy. However, China will emerge the strongest from this recession.

- China soft power will increase significantly and will cause the average American to question liberal democracy.

- ML will continue to drive big profits for the bigcos but not be a source of new significant startups

- AR/VR will not have mass adoption this decade but will have a strong POC (think smartphones in 2010).

- We will have L4 autonomy, but drivers will have to take over fairly often.

- >50% of new cars sold will be electric by the end of the decade

- Bitcoin > $100k

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#322

Post by CalRobert »

Increasing global panic as self-reinforcing feedback loops in Carbon emissions cause people with means to migrate to high ground in cold countries, and people without means to die starving, fighting, or trying to emigrate. Resource wars and a land grab for regions that continue to be arable. Many, many killed, perhaps a few even in wealthy countries. Shock amongst the wealthy that the ocean is coming even for _their_ beachfront homes. Mostly this will be about the realization of what's coming, and that this is the decade for positioning before global food supply chains fail.

This will also serve as the backdrop against which the US loses its status as a republic, as the combination of overweighted rural votes in the senate and electoral college, poor election security (as in terribly insecure evoting tabulation, not dumb voter id laws), and easily bought politicians, judges, etc. lead to a wealthy few dictating the conditions for the many, using the tools of manufactured housing scarcity, medical debt, and student debt (if colleges manage to stay relevant). A massive national dragnet that doesn't even pretend to care about citizens' privacy. The US governing structure will look a lot more like China's.

Some software stuff, new medical breakthroughs for the rich, fascinating art in response to above, etc. But that's less relevant.

Hope I'm wrong!

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#323

Post by I_am_tiberius »

- Bill Gates is president of the United States

- Edward Snowden will be back home. He's still a hero.

- Bitcoin lightning payments are the most common form of payment on the Internet.

- Due to the death of Moore's law a USD 1000 laptop in 2030 is only 3 times as powerful as a USD 1000 laptop in 2020.

- Quantum computers are still not common

- Nosql databases are not commonly used anymore

- Singularity is still 30 years away

- China's and Russia's will have found effective ways to isolate their internet traffic.

- Postgres is the nr 1 database in use

- Hackernews color theme will change from orange to green

- SAP's ERP system revenues will have dropped significantly

- Startup solutions will be more common in corporate environments.

- Matrix will be the most commonly used protocol used for chat software.

- Plasma Mobile will be a successful alternative to Android.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#324

Post by tootie »

kenips wrote: post #313

1. This will be the last time I’m typing my decade prediction on HN 2. AR/VR will be complementary only, travel industry will be bigger than ever; shopping will happen as your travel (product placement in all your experiences) 3. Weather-related disasters to be more rampant and frequent 4. Governments go bankrupt and hyper-inflation in developed countries 5. Disney still owns everything 6. Intel loses leadership in C…

> Governments go bankrupt and hyper-inflation in developed countries

I heard this a lot in 2007. If the financial crisis taught us anything it's that developed world economies are astonishingly resistant to inflation of any kind.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#325

Post by imtringued »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #102
the_jeremy wrote: post #67

* Moore's law stays dead. Having a lightweight laptop that does nothing more than provide a portal to more powerful machines enters the consumer field (Stadia already exists, but other uses will appear). Probably offered by an existing cloud provider first. * Recession happens this decade. * Someone becomes the US democratic nominee with a UBI platform. * The US gets single payer healthcare. * Zoning laws become an e…

> Recession happens this decade. After any other decade, nobody would bother to say that, because of course there would be a recession (if not more) in the next decade. It is amazing that the 2010s didn't have one. But, as you say, amazing usually doesn't continue forever...

I think that this type of behavior is actually delaying the next recession. When you are aware that something bad will happen in the future you will be more careful and try your best to avoid it.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#326

Post by zamadatix »

nlh wrote: post #157

My predictions (writing this before reading others' so I'm not too corrupted yet ;) * The AR revolution starts/takes hold. We move from holding 5" screens in front of us to glasses-mounted or contact-lens based AR devices. * Crystal (the language) gets more popular and Svelte (the framework) gets more popular. * WebAssembly takes shape, languages other than JavaScript become first-class citizens of the web, but ES27/…

Five trillion dollar companies is a bit of a cheap bet considering there are 3 public companies that fit the bill right now and goog/amzn are 95% the way there :p.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#328

Post by k4ch0w »

- Crypto bubble will burst

- China will have huge social reform in favor of citizens

- Bioengineering will become an everyday discussion when thinking about having kids. (Designer babies)

- GCP or Azure will fall off in the cloud game.

- Linux desktop will have a breakthrough and become more mainstream.

- Free education or heavily subsidized college will become real in the US.

- Blocking ADs in browser will not be possible anymore.

- Rust will become C++ and Go will become Java in enterprise environments.

- AMD will dominate the chip market with intel struggling to catch up.

- Gas will be $12 a gallon. Currently ~$3.50 in Seattle

- Streaming services will become like cable tv channels and you’ll need to spend $70 to unlock all the regular channels.

- Drones will become a social problem. Drones stealing packages and spying on neighbors.

- Disney will buy paramount

- Google buys Salesforce

- Oracle buys IBM

- Apple buys Waymo and becomes dominate force in automated driving

- First asteroid is mined

- Another recession like 2008 but worse occurs

- Scotland leaves UK

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#329

Post by tropo »

softwaredoug wrote: post #219

* Demographics does not become not destiny for Western Leftist parties. continued failure of elites to win electorally, and an aging, white, and geographically distributed coalition, that votes reliably, wins most of the time. Immigration has slowed in the US and will continue to slow in other countries. This makes Trump more likely than not to win 2020 Further reading on this POV: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a…

Demographics is destiny, but this does not benefit Western Leftist parties. One political side is producing about 2.5 kids per woman, and the other is producing about 1.5 kids per woman. (numbers for USA) Above 2 is exponential growth, and below 2 is extinction.

The reasonable prediction here is a shift to the right. A few decades may be required before it is dramatic and undeniable.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#330

Post by imtringued »

mgraczyk wrote: post #103

Things I believe will stay the same: * Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple will have roughly the same dominant positions. * Bitcoin will play roughly the same role it plays today (store of value, more like gold than money, similar mkt cap) * Machine learning continues to grow in usage and capability, but there will be no "revolution" in AI. * Nobody on Mars * No serious alternatives to advertisements will emerge for indu…

>* Vim + tmux + make is still the best "IDE" ;)

I don't like this misuse of the word IDE. The entire point of the word is in the I. Combining multiple independent tools is the opposite of an integrated development environment. It's just a regular development environment.

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