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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#311

Post by wtvanhest »

lozenge wrote: post #282
edouard-harris wrote: post #239

Here is a rule of thumb that will be familiar to many who manage risk in a professional capacity: The time to get creative is when you face a capped downside on the one hand, and an uncapped upside on the other. The time to get conservative is when you face the opposite condition. The reason for this rule is that creative policies almost never work; but when they work, they have a much higher chance of working extrao…

(warning: conspiracy theory, but at least an original one) I'm thinking this only makes sense in the context of Brexit. Brexit will be a massive hit to the competitiveness of British businesses... somebody in government is hoping to counteract this by taking an approach different to the rest of Europe. If the UK's approach works, it will end up economically ahead of all the other European countries, something like th…

That seems like the exact gamble. IMO, the US has taken the right approach. Keep things going until it starts to replicate in the community, then get aggressive before the hospitals are overrun.

Some communities will have too many cases, but most will hopefully be ok. And we will have a first step of Hurd immunity, concentrated on people most likely to transmit later like package delivery, restaurant workers, drivers etc.

The US should have had testing procedure set up early to relieve stress for citizens.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#312

Post by Engineering-MD »

kgwgk wrote: post #241
bonzini wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The UK plan is effectively to get as many people as possible that are young, and thus at a super low risk of needing hospitalization to get infected The risk is already not that low at 55-65. These are people that are working and thus very likely to catch it.

51% of patients requiring intensive care in Italy are in the 50-70 range. 12% are younger than 50.

What is your source for those figures? I haven’t been able to find the breakdown.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#313

Post by milansm »

edouard-harris wrote: post #239

Here is a rule of thumb that will be familiar to many who manage risk in a professional capacity: The time to get creative is when you face a capped downside on the one hand, and an uncapped upside on the other. The time to get conservative is when you face the opposite condition. The reason for this rule is that creative policies almost never work; but when they work, they have a much higher chance of working extrao…

But how can anybody be sure that conservative policy (lockdown, I assume) would work for UK (or any other nation beside China)? They probably have to factor in the chance of success. They can fail in implementing conservative option (which might not be so conservative after all), and ruin the economy as a side effect. I imagine this as a choice between these: - long struggle with uncertain outcome in terms of life lost but with certain economic ruin - short struggle with uncertain outcome in terms of life lost, with small economic ruin

I’m neither epidemiologist nor politician in power, so I can entertain myself with these thought experiments. In the end, I have little choice (and knowledge or firepower), but to do as instructed by local authorities.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#314

Post by hellofunk »

arcticbull wrote: post #245
hellofunk wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve seen this attitude quite a lot among younger people lately, it’s just super irresponsible and arrogant. In a situation like this, the responsibility must be shared, no one should consider themselves free from the responsibilities of stopping the spread this virus.

Again, if you don't come into contact with the vulnerable (or anyone else who does) then you aren't putting anyone at risk and you are developing herd immunity which will in time likely end the virus.

While you probably don’t realize it, you have just underscored my point.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#315

Post by luckylion »

Animats wrote: post #118
beaunative wrote: post #85

It looks like to me just a comfort pill for the public. They basically acknowledged that they can't handle the crisis already. So what they gonna do? They want it to appear to be an advice from expert, to persuade the public, rationalize a forced decision. The uncomfortable truth is, the British government have weighted cost and benefit, and they have decided, the death of thousands or more is not worth the cost of n…

The uncomfortable truth is, the British government have weighted cost and benefit, and they have decided, the death of thousands or more is not worth the cost of near-absolute lockdown of a country, It might lead to total breakdown of the economy, full-recession, and that may cost more lives anyway. And so begins the Great Reaping. Get rid of the old and the sick, so the nation can move on, freed of the burden of car…

That's not quite the point though, is it? The point is total breakdown of the economy, full-recession, and that may cost more lives anyway. The idea seems to be that you can decide: do you want thousands of deaths, or do you want thousands of death and an economic collapse?

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#316

Post by cynusx »

cirrus-clouds wrote: post #135

Here is a discussion on Channel 4 on the approach taken by the UK government. https://youtu.be/C98FmoZVbjs?t=590 Debating are: - John Edmunds: a professor in the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - Tomas Pueyo: his modelling of the pandemic has gone viral on the web: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop... During the debate,…

Well, they are both in agreement that we need to reach herd immunity at minimal cost. They also agree to keep the rate of new infections below NHS's capacity to handle.

They disagree on:

- adherence to lockdown measures over a longer time

- actual rate of spreading the disease

I agree with John Edmunds on these two points, however I am frankly disappointed a third approach is absent from the debate which is to lockdown aggressively now and deliberately infect healthy-age adults to achieve herd-immunity in the healthiest (most active) population.

These types of organized "corona parties" if you will could be medically supervised and coordinated with the NHS's ability. In that case you have controlled (accelerated) spread with 0 viral coefficient and uncontrolled general population spread with a viral coefficient.

That said, it would only be ethical if the government believes it could manage the capacity of the NHS. I think more realistically it's a foregone conclusion that the country health systems will be overrun and that drastic lockdown measures only make sense for a few weeks to make sure herd immunity comes at effectively half the cost in human lives.

If they don't believe they can manage the NHS capacity then the UK governments' policy is by all means the most human and economically effective way to manage it

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#318

Post by thefounder »

lozenge wrote: post #282
edouard-harris wrote: post #239

Here is a rule of thumb that will be familiar to many who manage risk in a professional capacity: The time to get creative is when you face a capped downside on the one hand, and an uncapped upside on the other. The time to get conservative is when you face the opposite condition. The reason for this rule is that creative policies almost never work; but when they work, they have a much higher chance of working extrao…

(warning: conspiracy theory, but at least an original one) I'm thinking this only makes sense in the context of Brexit. Brexit will be a massive hit to the competitiveness of British businesses... somebody in government is hoping to counteract this by taking an approach different to the rest of Europe. If the UK's approach works, it will end up economically ahead of all the other European countries, something like th…

Yeah, it will make Britain Great Again as it gets rid of the old population and increases its competitiveness. It almost feels natural that after getting rid of the migrants it's time to get rid of some less desired locals as well.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#319

Post by roenxi »

pjc50 wrote: post #264
pmontra wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A more cynical question: can a PM win the next elections or politically survive the next weeks if a lot of people die and he just shrugged his shoulders, when the rest of the world did their best to keep people alive, successfully or not? I bet he'll have to change course pretty soon.

Yes, if the Tory press back them up. Brexit has shown that the narrative can be spun in their favor.

The impacts of Brexit are relatively abstract; COVID-19 is piles of dead bodies and 1 in 20 families losing a grandparent. Spinning that positively is mighty challenging.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#320

Post by protrate »

arcticbull wrote: post #158
aberoham wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

^^^ 2000% this, a large proportion can't change their ways, is not paying attention or simply doesn't care. It's shocking to still tonight walk past a packed pub on a Saturday night

Personally, I'm 30, have no contact with folks over 65, have no co-morbid conditions and so I have no reason to keep away from folks. I'm at zero risk. In fact if I get it now and develop an immunity, all the better. I have to assume the same is true of the folks at the pub -- otherwise it's them who are being irresponsible, not me.

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