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Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

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Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#301
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So humans have a level of knowledge, understanding, and reasoning ability that LLMs simply don't have. I'm writing a response to you right now, and I "know" a certain amount of information about the world. That knowledge has limits, and I can expand it, I can forget it, all sorts of things... "Hallucination" is a term that works well for actual intelligence - when you "know" something that isn't true, and has no path…

What you're describing is very close to what the thought experiment of Chinese Room ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room ). But yes, it's unfortunate that when the next tokens are joined token and laid out in the form of a sentence it appears "intelligent" to people. However if you instead lay out the individual probabilities of each token instead then it'll be more obvious what ChatGPT/LLMs actually do.

What do you think your brain does when deciding the next word to speak? It is scoring words based on the appropriateness considering context and all the relevant known facts, as well as your communicative intent. But it is not obvious that there is nothing like communicative intent in LLMs. When you prompt it, you are engaging some subset of the network relevant to the prompt that induces a generative state disposed to produce a contextually appropriate response. But the properties of this "disposition to contextually appropriate responses" is sensitive to the context. In a Q&A context, the disposition is to produce an acceptable answer, in a therapeutic context, the disposition is to produce a helpful or sensitive response. The point is that communicative intent is within the solution space of text prediction when the training data was produced with communicative intent. We should expect communicative intent to improve the quality of text prediction, and so we cannot rule out that LLMs have recovered something in the ballpark of communicative intent.

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#302
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I explained all it could do, and I felt I was doing great. But the moment I mentioned that it can get things wrong and sound totally confident, pretty much the conversation was me trying to justify why it’s still useful and I didn’t get anywhere beyond that. I was shocked because I felt that being occasionally wrong would be a foot note, but to the person I was talking to its entire usefulness hinged on it being full…

Computers are not supposed to get stuff wrong. Being right some of the time just isn't good enough for people who expect their calculator to always give them the right answers. I think we can all agree that LLMs, as they stand today, are useless for anything apart from "creative tasks" where accuracy and facts simply don't matter. So things like writing fan fiction it is great at, but for anything meaningful it is ut…

They’re useful for tasks that are easy to verify but hard to generate, and code is one meaningful example. It seems trite to say after so many others, but I built a web app in one day by pair coding with GPT-4, which I am sure would have taken weeks, mostly learning the quirks of the various frameworks involved by sifting through the noise of the web. The LLM wasn’t correct 100% of the time, but I could iterate with it when there was a problem and debug. It probably helps that I was using hugely popular libraries, but I think this means there’s a ton of promise in fine-tuning these models on internal codebases/docs.

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#303
Definitely mixed opinions in this discussion. I am actually curious whether the hard skeptics in the tech circle actually gave ChatGPT and other tools a fair shot. I was into AI/DL before the rise of ChatGPT and thought that it's way overhyped and too unreliable at first, that meant I only played with several toy examples. Across the last few months though, I have increasingly found greater uses for LLMs.

Not saying that it's still not overhyped, but maybe the AI skeptics among the tech community are in their own echo chamber too?

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#304
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True. But they also aren't $30,000.00.

Anymore. At the top of bubble they were way more than bitcoin has ever been >e best of tulips cost upwards of $1 million in today’s money (but with many bulbs trading in the $50,000–$150,000 range https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market...

right, but now a great tulip is $15

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#305
YouGov did a poll[0] of 1500 US adult citizens, and it reflects what a lot of people in this thread have said anecdotally. 43% say they have never used AI tools, with only 24% reporting they "very often" or "somewhat often" use them.

Interestingly, there's a big age component in this poll, and rather than being a smooth grade like most tech, there's a very strong divide at 45yo—those younger than 45 are over 4x as likely to report they often use AI tools than those over 45.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ifywkae5dt/econTabReport.pdf#pag...

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#306
post #92

FWIW I have the exact opposite experience: people around me, who are _NOT_ in tech, keep talking about AI and lately especially ChatGPT, whereas serious (not only senior) IT professionals don't really. Besides the science behind it, currently it feels like the same hype as crypto a couple years before.

Similar experience; a lot of laypeople seem to be viewing it as world changing magic, whereas that view is far more niche in tech. This feels like a common pattern; a few years back many of my non-tech friends believed self-driving cars were coming imminently, whereas ~no-one working in tech believed that.

People working in tech believed this. Hell, people directly working on the tech seemed to think this a few years ago, and are only now admitting reality.

Of course, one tends to be optimistic of these things when they work on them.

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#307
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>puts it in a similar tier as crypto Comparisons between AI and crypto are horribly misguided IMO. Is AI overhyped? Sure. However - AI/ML is creating utility everywhere in our lives - speech to text, language translation, recommendation engines, relevancy ranking in search, computer vision, etc. and seems to be getting embedded in more and more processes by the day. Crypto never amounted to anything beyond a currency…

I'm not necessarily arguing that they're the same, but let's be honest with ourselves - crypto said the _same_ things as it was ramping up. Just replace all the applications of AI you listed with the many hypothetical use-cases crypto-pushers were listing out. As always, sounds cool. Actually do some of it and then let's talk more.

Crypto pushers pushed two contradictory messages: 1. hodl, don't sell, don't spend! 2. Try to replace fiat with crypto in your life!

No wonder that its adoption for legal purposes didn't go anywhere.

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>puts it in a similar tier as crypto Comparisons between AI and crypto are horribly misguided IMO. Is AI overhyped? Sure. However - AI/ML is creating utility everywhere in our lives - speech to text, language translation, recommendation engines, relevancy ranking in search, computer vision, etc. and seems to be getting embedded in more and more processes by the day. Crypto never amounted to anything beyond a currency…

This—100%. The AI revolution with LLMs is creating a new type of interface with computers—the AI interface. Will it kill us all? Eh, probably not. Will it completely change human civilization forever? Eh... maybe not? (But also maybe). But what it already has begun to do, and will continue to do is change the way we interact with computers. The era of having a personal voice assistant that is capable, adaptable, and…

This is a perfect example of an AI-hype comment.

You’re treating it as a fact that LLM are going to replace existing products, at some unknown future date.

“In 5 years, all code will be written by AI”

“In 5 years, LLM will replace Siri and Alexa”

“In 5 years, AI will replace [sector of jobs]”

The thing that frustrates me about these statements is that you don’t know what AI technology is going to look like in 5 years, so stop treating it like a fact. It’s possible LLM are useful in all of these places, but we don’t know that yet.

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>puts it in a similar tier as crypto Comparisons between AI and crypto are horribly misguided IMO. Is AI overhyped? Sure. However - AI/ML is creating utility everywhere in our lives - speech to text, language translation, recommendation engines, relevancy ranking in search, computer vision, etc. and seems to be getting embedded in more and more processes by the day. Crypto never amounted to anything beyond a currency…

Everywhere?? That’s exactly the hype talk that’s going to burst this bubble. Here’s tech’s dirty little secret. Despite all the screams about automation and universal basic income… the exact numbers where job replacement would show are in the labor productivity numbers. If GDP stays flat or grows while the number of jobs is reduced… bingo… you’d see that number climb. Productivity has actually stayed flat or gone dow…

The missing productivity paradox is something that should interest everyone in tech! Like any macroeconomic observation, there is plenty of uncertainty in both the measurements (GDP ain't perfect) and the context (2 financial crises and a pandemic). But even pro-status-quo institutions like Brookings agree that Something Is Up. Their 2021 review on the topic is both a decent summary and a good source of further refs [1].

My favorite explanation is that many new technologies end up redistributing wealth rather than creating it, which certainly tracks with both subjective and quantified growth in inequality on the same time period. However, a slightly more optimistic take is that tech is aligning production better with people's preferences, so that the same productivity enables people to live more distinct lifestyles that suit them.

[1] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-to-solve-the-puzzle-o...

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#310
> He’s a millennial & a white collar worker and smart

If I have to anthropomorphise the gpt3.5 prompt, "it" is an average intelligence intern who can only google up to 31st of march 2021 and has several insecurities and character flaws. It is unable to follow a plan, needs guidance at every step, needs to repeat itself constantly and sometimes makes things up as it goes.

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