Earlier quoted context omitted.
So humans have a level of knowledge, understanding, and reasoning ability that LLMs simply don't have. I'm writing a response to you right now, and I "know" a certain amount of information about the world. That knowledge has limits, and I can expand it, I can forget it, all sorts of things... "Hallucination" is a term that works well for actual intelligence - when you "know" something that isn't true, and has no path…
What you're describing is very close to what the thought experiment of Chinese Room ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room ). But yes, it's unfortunate that when the next tokens are joined token and laid out in the form of a sentence it appears "intelligent" to people. However if you instead lay out the individual probabilities of each token instead then it'll be more obvious what ChatGPT/LLMs actually do.
Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?
301–310 of 755 posts
Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?
#302Earlier quoted context omitted.
I explained all it could do, and I felt I was doing great. But the moment I mentioned that it can get things wrong and sound totally confident, pretty much the conversation was me trying to justify why it’s still useful and I didn’t get anywhere beyond that. I was shocked because I felt that being occasionally wrong would be a foot note, but to the person I was talking to its entire usefulness hinged on it being full…
Computers are not supposed to get stuff wrong. Being right some of the time just isn't good enough for people who expect their calculator to always give them the right answers. I think we can all agree that LLMs, as they stand today, are useless for anything apart from "creative tasks" where accuracy and facts simply don't matter. So things like writing fan fiction it is great at, but for anything meaningful it is ut…
Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?
#303Not saying that it's still not overhyped, but maybe the AI skeptics among the tech community are in their own echo chamber too?
Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?
#304Earlier quoted context omitted.
True. But they also aren't $30,000.00.
Anymore. At the top of bubble they were way more than bitcoin has ever been >e best of tulips cost upwards of $1 million in today’s money (but with many bulbs trading in the $50,000–$150,000 range https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market...
Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?
#305Interestingly, there's a big age component in this poll, and rather than being a smooth grade like most tech, there's a very strong divide at 45yo—those younger than 45 are over 4x as likely to report they often use AI tools than those over 45.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ifywkae5dt/econTabReport.pdf#pag...
Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?
#306FWIW I have the exact opposite experience: people around me, who are _NOT_ in tech, keep talking about AI and lately especially ChatGPT, whereas serious (not only senior) IT professionals don't really. Besides the science behind it, currently it feels like the same hype as crypto a couple years before.
Similar experience; a lot of laypeople seem to be viewing it as world changing magic, whereas that view is far more niche in tech. This feels like a common pattern; a few years back many of my non-tech friends believed self-driving cars were coming imminently, whereas ~no-one working in tech believed that.
Of course, one tends to be optimistic of these things when they work on them.
Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?
#307Earlier quoted context omitted.
>puts it in a similar tier as crypto Comparisons between AI and crypto are horribly misguided IMO. Is AI overhyped? Sure. However - AI/ML is creating utility everywhere in our lives - speech to text, language translation, recommendation engines, relevancy ranking in search, computer vision, etc. and seems to be getting embedded in more and more processes by the day. Crypto never amounted to anything beyond a currency…
I'm not necessarily arguing that they're the same, but let's be honest with ourselves - crypto said the _same_ things as it was ramping up. Just replace all the applications of AI you listed with the many hypothetical use-cases crypto-pushers were listing out. As always, sounds cool. Actually do some of it and then let's talk more.
No wonder that its adoption for legal purposes didn't go anywhere.
Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?
#308Earlier quoted context omitted.
>puts it in a similar tier as crypto Comparisons between AI and crypto are horribly misguided IMO. Is AI overhyped? Sure. However - AI/ML is creating utility everywhere in our lives - speech to text, language translation, recommendation engines, relevancy ranking in search, computer vision, etc. and seems to be getting embedded in more and more processes by the day. Crypto never amounted to anything beyond a currency…
This—100%. The AI revolution with LLMs is creating a new type of interface with computers—the AI interface. Will it kill us all? Eh, probably not. Will it completely change human civilization forever? Eh... maybe not? (But also maybe). But what it already has begun to do, and will continue to do is change the way we interact with computers. The era of having a personal voice assistant that is capable, adaptable, and…
You’re treating it as a fact that LLM are going to replace existing products, at some unknown future date.
“In 5 years, all code will be written by AI”
“In 5 years, LLM will replace Siri and Alexa”
“In 5 years, AI will replace [sector of jobs]”
The thing that frustrates me about these statements is that you don’t know what AI technology is going to look like in 5 years, so stop treating it like a fact. It’s possible LLM are useful in all of these places, but we don’t know that yet.
Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?
#309Earlier quoted context omitted.
>puts it in a similar tier as crypto Comparisons between AI and crypto are horribly misguided IMO. Is AI overhyped? Sure. However - AI/ML is creating utility everywhere in our lives - speech to text, language translation, recommendation engines, relevancy ranking in search, computer vision, etc. and seems to be getting embedded in more and more processes by the day. Crypto never amounted to anything beyond a currency…
Everywhere?? That’s exactly the hype talk that’s going to burst this bubble. Here’s tech’s dirty little secret. Despite all the screams about automation and universal basic income… the exact numbers where job replacement would show are in the labor productivity numbers. If GDP stays flat or grows while the number of jobs is reduced… bingo… you’d see that number climb. Productivity has actually stayed flat or gone dow…
My favorite explanation is that many new technologies end up redistributing wealth rather than creating it, which certainly tracks with both subjective and quantified growth in inequality on the same time period. However, a slightly more optimistic take is that tech is aligning production better with people's preferences, so that the same productivity enables people to live more distinct lifestyles that suit them.
[1] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-to-solve-the-puzzle-o...
Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?
#310If I have to anthropomorphise the gpt3.5 prompt, "it" is an average intelligence intern who can only google up to 31st of march 2021 and has several insecurities and character flaws. It is unable to follow a plan, needs guidance at every step, needs to repeat itself constantly and sometimes makes things up as it goes.