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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

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Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#301

Post by Teever »

ChadNauseam wrote: post #247

Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…

I'm going to piggyback on your comment by saying that preimplantation polygenetic testing is only the start of what I feel is broader impending reproductive revolution.

Not only are we going to be able to start modifying zygotes like you've mentioned, we're going to be able to start generating them from any genetic material available[0], and bringing them to term in an artificial womb[1].

This is going to fundamentally alter society (for the wealthy at first as you mention) because we will be able to do away with the health burdens that are placed on women who go through pregnancy and we will be able to eliminate huge swaths of genetic abnormalities.

Imagine the shock to paternity law once some unscrupulous individual obtains a celebrities DNA through some discarded water bottle and generates children from it to demand child support payments with.

How will organized sports handle genetically modified players being vastly superior to ungenetically modified?

It's going to be huge, it'll make the pill seem quaint and I feel it's just around the corner, like 2030's sort of thing and no one is talking about.

[0] https://www.timesofisrael.com/from-just-skin-cells-israeli-l...

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/jun/27/parents...

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#302

Post by monodeldiablo »

throwaway787544 wrote: post #239
SamuelAdams wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also note that “half of all new cars sold” does not mean half of all vehicles on the road. People will keep using their ICE cars for 10-20 years after their manufacture date. I’m curious to see the actual projections of cars on the road that are electric vs ICE. My guess is, by 2040, it might be 25% (in the USA).

About 1/4 of cars on the road globally will be electric but Europe and China will have a larger share than USA. Still, that means something like 25% of gas stations and parking lots worldwide having fast chargers. If they can't make that number, imagine the impact on driving when 1/4 of drivers are frustrated and their trips unrealistic. Passenger car ownership itself may fall, which would both hit the auto industry…

... or charging infrastructure companies would simply expand their offerings to meet demand, since expansion for them is comparatively cheap.

That, at least to me, seems to be the more likely scenario.

Also keep in mind that fueling behavior for EV owners is different than for ICE vehicle owners. Fast chargers are useful for road trips, but unnecessary and expensive for day-to-day driving. Most commuters will simply charge at home/work/the store/etc, where the raw inputs to charging infrastructure (car-adjacent space and electricity) are already in place and slower, cheaper charging is sufficient.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#304

Post by rdtwo »

dont__panic wrote: post #278
jasonwatkinspdx wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think I speak for a lot of people when I say the last thing I want is for my local power grid to become a low regulation real time market. We've seen the flaws of the Texas approach, and doubling down on it with a sprinkling of IOT tech on top is not gonna go anywhere good.

Not to mention the fact that IoT consumes lots of unnecessary power and stuff like Nest that tries to "conserve energy with AI" ends up consuming more power for an ultimately shittier experience than simply manually managing the system. I suspect since there's money to extract and profit for the power companies, this will happen anyway in the next 5-10 years across the USA. I'm already bracing for the internet provid…

We need to stop thinking about power and bandwidth on a per unit basis. There are times when it’s free someone’s you might even get paid to burn it and others when it’s super expensive. As for nest I agree it’s a shit experience and actually ends up peak loading the grid.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#305

Post by Workaccount2 »

pavlov wrote: post #198
baobob wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like this definitely needs to be expanded. What makes you think that? Their currency is stronger than before the war (despite internal fragility) They have the entire continent of Europe by the balls on oil/gas They've made an absolute killing in the energy sector this year due to the fear and scarcity they have created. They're making steady gains in their war in Ukraine They have the ear and economic heart o…

All of these are illusions. The currency is propped up by the government because it's not freely exchanged anymore. Europe is making a massive turn away from Russian energy despite the medium-term pain. The Russian military has achieved very little in five months of warfare. And China genuinely doesn't care about Russia. If the Russian Federation were to balkanize into smaller states, the Chinese leaders certainly wo…

Russia controls the most valuable portion of Ukraine right now. Going after Kiev was a win/win for Russia because it allowed them to capture the southern coast and maybe even gave them the country (it didn't).

Unless Ukraine retakes the southern coast, Russia will have achieved their main objective.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#306

Post by CharlieDigital »

bko wrote: post #213
throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

> By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely. Do you believe this? I know its a stated goal, but is there anything to hold the company's accountable or is this just a promise? I can't imagine them giving up a cash cow and something they've been doing for decades. EV sales in the USU are 5.6% of the market. I just find the claim that these companies will just s…

> Do you believe this?

There are a lot of built-in incentives for manufacturers to switch to electric once the market demand exists.

Less moving parts to warranty means potentially less long-tail costs for parts as well as less capital allocation for potential warranty service claims paid to dealerships. Less moving parts that can fail. Less parts in general. AWD in electrics is typically done with a front and rear motor configuration versus using moving parts to transfer power from the front to the rear.

More opportunities to upsell with lower capital costs. Model stratification by power output in ICE typically means more complex engineering (forced induction) or larger engine; both of which require significantly more R&D, testing, and validation. Once you sink capital investments into an ICE engine and manufacturing line, you need to reuse it over many years across a large range of vehicles to recoup the cost.

Model stratification in electrics is via bigger battery packs (stuff more of the same cells in there) and multiple motors.

Basically, electric cars are fiscally better for manufacturers in every way -- so long as consumers are willing to pay the premium AND willing to live with the inconveniences (less infrastructure for refueling, longer refueling, range anxiety).

What Tesla did was de-risk the market by showing that consumers will buy the product despite its flaws.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#307

Post by Flatcircle »

There’s a real possibility housing prices might go down or sideways for a decade or more.

Between high interest rates, depopulation, government intervention regarding foreign investment, and new housing tech that makes older houses worth less, there may be a new normal in which residential real estate doesn’t appreciate for a long time.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#308

Post by dont__panic »

contingencies wrote: post #181
CalRobert wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How will transport work? One of the big issues with homes built in distant areas is the expectation of roads (and car dependency in general)

Fixed wing drones are becoming super cheap , and are far simpler than their copter-classed counterparts. While handover needs smoothing out, delivery will thus be easy for items of daily use. Less so for furniture, appliances, etc. However, if you are willing to deal with foam furniture, earth building or felling a couple of trees on site, robotics could still have you covered.

Do you foresee fixed wing drones also displacing cars? Would be awfully nice to no longer need to build highways and roads...

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#309

Post by jasonwatkinspdx »

dont__panic wrote: post #278
jasonwatkinspdx wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think I speak for a lot of people when I say the last thing I want is for my local power grid to become a low regulation real time market. We've seen the flaws of the Texas approach, and doubling down on it with a sprinkling of IOT tech on top is not gonna go anywhere good.

Not to mention the fact that IoT consumes lots of unnecessary power and stuff like Nest that tries to "conserve energy with AI" ends up consuming more power for an ultimately shittier experience than simply manually managing the system. I suspect since there's money to extract and profit for the power companies, this will happen anyway in the next 5-10 years across the USA. I'm already bracing for the internet provid…

Yeah, where I'm at my choices are basically Comcast and Century Link, both of them not companies I'm eager to do business with.

Comcast has been playing games around overage charges for a few years now. It's pretty transparently calibrated to ding you if you have more than one person regularly streaming 4k video.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#310

Post by CakeEngine »

ChadNauseam wrote: post #247

Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…

This is only a problem is there's a clear mapping from detectable genetic feature to an expressed macro-feature like intelligence.

My (admittedly limited) understanding is that each detectable genetic feature has a whole panoply of effects, some of which wont' be apparent at birth. Selecting for intelligence through specific genes is like to also be selecting for weak bones, reduced longevity, or other unpredictable side-effects.

Maybe one day it will be possible but there's a chasm between here and there which can only be crossed by extensive testing on real people. Is that even crossable?

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