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Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

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Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#301

Post by BaronSamedi »

sergiosgc wrote: post #75
BaronSamedi wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I liked Taleb's "The Black Swan" but find his Twitter persona grating. He displays an attitude of, "anyone who doesn't agree with me is dumb". I think the opposite is needed now. Complex and difficult issues are better approached with humility, and a frank and open discussion of uncertainty.

I don't mind arrogance on public personas[^] who are very good at what they do. Think Steve Jobs arrogance. Think José Mourinho "I'm the special one" in 2004. I read it as putting your (reputational) neck on the line. "I'm so sure of this assertion that I'm risking my reputation here.". Taleb is one such brilliant mind. The downside to arrogance is that it will tank your reputation if you fail. This may be too early…

A perhaps more important downside to arrogance is that hubris leads to blindness. One can be so blinded by the light of one's own brilliance that one fails to see beyond it. Intellectual humility, therefore, is the recognition of our limitations and helps us remain open to new information.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#302

Post by vertak »

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #220
fanzhang wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Austrian School seems to have been wrong about the last 15 years' money printing causing inflation. In particular, the general Austrian school would have predicted a lot more inflation by now. The prediction on this has fared so poorly that the last 15 years has given rise to a school nearly diametrically opposite to the Austrian school: modern monetary theory. (My understanding of the Austrian response to this i…

I think there is a lot of inflation if you measure it properly. We say inflation is low because we adjust for quality. So they say sure, a car costs more now than in 2000 but it has more features so if you adjust for quality it is cheaper. Same goes for other goods like computers, smartphones, etc. The problem is, the cheaper versions of these goods don't exist anymore, because the more expensive version is effective…

I recently read of an alternate measure of inflation called the "Cost of Thriving Index" which aimed to capture the astute point you're making. See page 18 of this document:

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/t...

I'm not economist but I've found this captures the feeling that although we're more productive and wealthier, it still feels harder to get ahead and live an average life.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#303

Post by m0llusk »

Start with some basic reading such as Mandelbrot's Misbehavior of Markets and Taleb's books, then move on to articles and recent video interviews with Nouriel Roubini, Raoul Pal, and Neil Howe, and finally be sure to take in some modern thinking from the likes of Venkatesh Rao at RibbonFarm.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#304

Post by [deleted] »

jazzyk wrote: post #293
sanderjd wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are missing my point: this has always been their editorial stance. It may have always been a reason not to read them if you're not into it, but it's not a new reason.

As I mentioned I had been a subscriber for 30 years. And no, I am not missing your point. There was a clear change in direction a few years ago - as I mentioned, I sensed it, but was not aware of the ownership change at the time. You either did not notice or you just started reading them - good for you. Enjoy.

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#305

Post by sanderjd »

jazzyk wrote: post #293
sanderjd wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are missing my point: this has always been their editorial stance. It may have always been a reason not to read them if you're not into it, but it's not a new reason.

As I mentioned I had been a subscriber for 30 years. And no, I am not missing your point. There was a clear change in direction a few years ago - as I mentioned, I sensed it, but was not aware of the ownership change at the time. You either did not notice or you just started reading them - good for you. Enjoy.

You may be right, but I don't see it. I have been reading since about 2005 and I don't recall seeing a strong stance against outsourcing at any point in that time. It would have struck me as surprising if I had, since they are broadly in favor of free trade, and outsourcing clearly fits the bill (even if you put it in scare quotes).

I don't really disagree with you about any of the points you're making, which means I often or usually don't agree with the Economist on these points, I just think it's a weird critique of the Economist to accuse them of being globalist, free trade, neoliberals; to me it's like, yeah, they are the Economist... It seems like accusing Jacobin of being socialist.

Maybe this change happened before 2005? I'd be interested in seeing some receipts. Are there some anti-outsourcing articles from way back that I've missed?

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#306

Post by oso2k »

DanielBMarkham wrote: post #57

Making sense in what fashion, to what end? Investment opportunities? Proposed public policy changes? Where to look for a job? To a large degree the economy is unknowable. That's why you can get two economists in a room and receive seven opinions. Don't get me wrong; there's good value there. It's just that economics is an odd mix of philosophy and math. On my more cranky days I call it astrology for people who know c…

   It's just that economics is an odd mix of philosophy and math.
   On my more cranky days I call it astrology for people who know calculus.
This is the quote of the year, as far as I'm concerned.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#307

Post by _curious_ »

jldugger wrote: post #281
dacohenii wrote: post #244

Not reading per se, but I've listened to Marketplace podcast [0] almost daily for years at this point, and I find it invaluable for economic news and interpretation -- especially now. Also recommend Marketplace's podcast Make Me Smart [1], which is an informal deep dive on a single subject. It's nominally a weekly podcast, but they're now releasing a 10-minute daily version. Finally, NPR's Planet Money [2] and their…

Honestly, I find Marketplace's obsession with politics annoying. IDK if they just have an easier time sourcing interviews from government officials because public radio or something, but it feels like even in times of non-distress they lean heavy on policy and lean on actual markets. Look at the non-COVID Make Me Smart topics as an example: - Housing policy - Corporate social responsibility - food policy to fight glo…

"I find Marketplace's obsession with politics annoying" Same - seems shallow.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#308

Post by ekianjo »

downerending wrote: post #264
ekianjo wrote: post #35

Thomas Sowell - he has many great books about economical principles - "Basic Economics" itself is extremely educational, and is regularly updated with examples of recent History.

Haven't read his econ book, but really loved Cosmic Justice . The guy is brilliant. Beyond that, if you want something kind of fringe but real time, ZeroHedge is interesting. Lots of chaff, but some of the wheat is insightful.

Thanks for the recommendation of Cosmic Justice, I was not aware of that book of his. Will definitely have a look!

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#309

Post by rv-de »

dredmorbius wrote: post #288
rv-de wrote: post #228

reddit.com/r/collapse ... only half joking.

I'd recommend Collapsademic as far higher S/N. Mod is a former /r/collapse mod. Pesimistic, but not a loon. https://old.reddit.com/r/collapsademic/

I'll check it out. But I must say that the crowd on collapse is actually on average surprisingly critical and will expose and discuss flawed information or unfounded theories. It's not a bunch of conspiracy nuts as one might expect.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#310

Post by _curious_ »

jonahbenton wrote: post #299
jotakami wrote: post #146

Where to begin? I’ve been reading about economics for about 15 years, and I have to say that this crisis has brought a level of clarity about certain economic truths that I never would have seen otherwise. First: accounting. I got an MBA five years ago and accounting was my favorite subject because it is behind everything that a business does. Accounting is the instrumentation that allows humans to organize their act…

Should be the top comment. Accounting is everything. It is the physics of the economy. There is a common fiction to money matters that everyone has to share- whether or not they know it- and the language in which that fiction is written is accounting.

"There is a common fiction to money matters that everyone has to share- whether or not they know it- and the language in which that fiction is written is accounting."

Poetic.

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