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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#301

Post by Engineering-MD »

I feel really torn about this.

The intuitive way of managing this is to try all possible containment methods as long as possible. The benefits of this is that it will give maximum chance for containment, and failing that, maximum time for therapies/vaccines to emerge. What are the chances of this? Containment thus far has already failed. The asymptomatic period make this hard to contain, and even in China with drastic measures new infections are occurring. Even if this worked, it would only take one area not doing this effectively to allow reinfection of these other areas once measures are lifted. The other issue is that an effective vaccine is not going to appear for at least a year. Other repurpose therapies are being trialed, and initial results will be released this month. I’m not aware of any other completely new therapies which may change outcomes. So, it appears the benefit is limited. The main risk of this approach is that containment is initially successful, but then fails in Autumn (fall), leading to a peak in the winter when the health system is already under a large amount of stress. This would be a disaster, and may well be what happens to other countries who try this. So, the UK approach of making occur in summer may make sense for the UK. How appropriate this course of will obviously depend on level of seasonal variability in health care needs. Therefore countries like Indonesia or Singapore will do well to stick to containment initially, as they dont risk a peak occurring in winter.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#302

Post by EnderMB »

It's hard to say, especially when you consider that the NHS has had its funding cut for years, and that even with a full lockdown it is likely to struggle even with a modest rise in patients over time.

This might sound dark, but as others have said, it feels like the government would rather see the country overwhelmed over a short amount of time, compared to a prolonged battle where their failures in healthcare will be highlighted.

I won't pretend to be a virologist, but one thing I will say is that it is wishful thinking to assume that the elderly are going to go into lockdown as the rest of the population builds an immunity. There is a level of arrogence and entitlement, mixed with regular doses of misinformation, that will ensure that the UK public will "keep calm and carry on" throughout this entire mess if there is no enforced lockdown.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#303

Post by lallysingh »

lozenge wrote: post #282
edouard-harris wrote: post #239

Here is a rule of thumb that will be familiar to many who manage risk in a professional capacity: The time to get creative is when you face a capped downside on the one hand, and an uncapped upside on the other. The time to get conservative is when you face the opposite condition. The reason for this rule is that creative policies almost never work; but when they work, they have a much higher chance of working extrao…

(warning: conspiracy theory, but at least an original one) I'm thinking this only makes sense in the context of Brexit. Brexit will be a massive hit to the competitiveness of British businesses... somebody in government is hoping to counteract this by taking an approach different to the rest of Europe. If the UK's approach works, it will end up economically ahead of all the other European countries, something like th…

.. fewer elderly to take care of?

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#304

Post by [deleted] »

cirrus-clouds wrote: post #135

Here is a discussion on Channel 4 on the approach taken by the UK government. https://youtu.be/C98FmoZVbjs?t=590 Debating are: - John Edmunds: a professor in the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - Tomas Pueyo: his modelling of the pandemic has gone viral on the web: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop... During the debate,…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#306

Post by pmlnr »

arcticbull wrote: post #158
aberoham wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

^^^ 2000% this, a large proportion can't change their ways, is not paying attention or simply doesn't care. It's shocking to still tonight walk past a packed pub on a Saturday night

Personally, I'm 30, have no contact with folks over 65, have no co-morbid conditions and so I have no reason to keep away from folks. I'm at zero risk. In fact if I get it now and develop an immunity, all the better. I have to assume the same is true of the folks at the pub -- otherwise it's them who are being irresponsible, not me.

You are and idiot.

Yes, I know I shouldn't leave a comment like this on HN according to the rules, but I'm tired of people like this one.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#307

Post by foobarbazetc »

cirrus-clouds wrote: post #135

Here is a discussion on Channel 4 on the approach taken by the UK government. https://youtu.be/C98FmoZVbjs?t=590 Debating are: - John Edmunds: a professor in the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - Tomas Pueyo: his modelling of the pandemic has gone viral on the web: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop... During the debate,…

There is no “UK strategy”, just like the number of cases in the US is much higher than the stats say but there are no tests for ordinary people.

The “UK strategy” is “let old people die”.

That “strategy” will be scrapped in the next day or two. Because it’s dumb.

It’s like some “theoretical” thing that ignores what’s actually happening and what has happened before.

Everyone is going to be Italy. Unless they’re China or South Korea and get it under control.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#308

Post by iateanapple »

lozenge wrote: post #282
edouard-harris wrote: post #239

Here is a rule of thumb that will be familiar to many who manage risk in a professional capacity: The time to get creative is when you face a capped downside on the one hand, and an uncapped upside on the other. The time to get conservative is when you face the opposite condition. The reason for this rule is that creative policies almost never work; but when they work, they have a much higher chance of working extrao…

(warning: conspiracy theory, but at least an original one) I'm thinking this only makes sense in the context of Brexit. Brexit will be a massive hit to the competitiveness of British businesses... somebody in government is hoping to counteract this by taking an approach different to the rest of Europe. If the UK's approach works, it will end up economically ahead of all the other European countries, something like th…

> I'm thinking this only makes sense in the context of Brexit. Brexit will be a massive hit to the competitiveness of British businesses

Bad theory. This virus could have been used as an excuse to lock down borders while the rest of Europe got economically destroyed by the virus.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#309

Post by tenpies »

lozenge wrote: post #282
edouard-harris wrote: post #239

Here is a rule of thumb that will be familiar to many who manage risk in a professional capacity: The time to get creative is when you face a capped downside on the one hand, and an uncapped upside on the other. The time to get conservative is when you face the opposite condition. The reason for this rule is that creative policies almost never work; but when they work, they have a much higher chance of working extrao…

(warning: conspiracy theory, but at least an original one) I'm thinking this only makes sense in the context of Brexit. Brexit will be a massive hit to the competitiveness of British businesses... somebody in government is hoping to counteract this by taking an approach different to the rest of Europe. If the UK's approach works, it will end up economically ahead of all the other European countries, something like th…

Counter-point: is Brexit Britain actually going to be worst off than post-pandemic EU or what's left of the EU?

I don't think the risk of this pandemic approach is worthwhile, especially given how poorly the EU is doing in general. Terrible economy, catastrophic pandemic response, and the symbolism of countries closing borders on fellow EU states are all quite telling.

By contrast Britain almost seems like it dodged a bullet - although they seem to have jumped in front of a train instead with their pandemic gamble.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#310

Post by tigershark »

m0zg wrote: post #169
thaumaturgy wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wuhan disagrees with your argument much more than it supports it. The Chinese response in Wuhan -- after the failure of the initial attempts to suppress any news of the virus -- were swift, draconian, and competent. They locked everything down, heavily restricted travel, erected 16 temporary hospitals (just for that region alone), and pumped a ton of medical supplies in to it. So the argument that follows from that i…

Which is something I explicitly pointed out. Shit like this isn't going to fly even in the UK, let alone in the US, so they seem to be acknowledging this simple fact and thinking of what they realistically can do in the absence of such "draconian" lockdown abilities. Which I think is smart. Especially if you consider that _any_ lockdown can't last for very long for economic reasons. A month or two at most, after whic…

So in your opinion voluntarily causing in the best case close to 1M deaths is smart. I’m sure hitler would probably agree completely with you.
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