I don’t think there’s going to be much change if any in the next 5 years. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills when I see people say LLMs can replace software engineers. Maybe if you’re writing basic CRUD web apps, but most systems have enough complexity that an LLM cannot currently ascertain. Not to say they’re not helpful - ChatGPT is jawdroppingly good at pointing out bugs in code. They’re going to make people more…
Isn’t that half or more of employed software developers? The complexity that you speak of are poorly refined business requirements or unnecessary abstractions, which are communications problems not a technology problem. Nearly all of those CRUD app developers are replaceable right now, which is striking considering the current immaturity of AI.