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Ask HN: What is the future of the entry-level software engineering job?

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31–39 of 39 posts

Re: Ask HN: What is the future of the entry-level software engineering job?

#31

I don’t think there’s going to be much change if any in the next 5 years. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills when I see people say LLMs can replace software engineers. Maybe if you’re writing basic CRUD web apps, but most systems have enough complexity that an LLM cannot currently ascertain. Not to say they’re not helpful - ChatGPT is jawdroppingly good at pointing out bugs in code. They’re going to make people more…

> Maybe if you’re writing basic CRUD web apps,

Isn’t that half or more of employed software developers? The complexity that you speak of are poorly refined business requirements or unnecessary abstractions, which are communications problems not a technology problem. Nearly all of those CRUD app developers are replaceable right now, which is striking considering the current immaturity of AI.

Re: Ask HN: What is the future of the entry-level software engineering job?

#32

I don’t think there’s going to be much change if any in the next 5 years. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills when I see people say LLMs can replace software engineers. Maybe if you’re writing basic CRUD web apps, but most systems have enough complexity that an LLM cannot currently ascertain. Not to say they’re not helpful - ChatGPT is jawdroppingly good at pointing out bugs in code. They’re going to make people more…

> Maybe if you’re writing basic CRUD web apps, Isn’t that half or more of employed software developers? The complexity that you speak of are poorly refined business requirements or unnecessary abstractions, which are communications problems not a technology problem. Nearly all of those CRUD app developers are replaceable right now, which is striking considering the current immaturity of AI.

You might be underestimating how quickly a basic CRUD web app turns into a very complicated CRUD web app. I don't see AI code tools slowing this down.

Re: Ask HN: What is the future of the entry-level software engineering job?

#33

If entry-level software jobs are being eliminated by AI or other means, how will people gain the experience necessary to become more senior developers?

Side projects, especially those that are popular (open source) or profitable.

Re: Ask HN: What is the future of the entry-level software engineering job?

#34

If entry-level software jobs are being eliminated by AI or other means, how will people gain the experience necessary to become more senior developers?

I think there's a good chance of there being some really bad bugs/system failures in about 25 years because of this.

"AI can do code" -> less experienced engineers -> no one has deep understanding of the whole system -> boom.

But it will take 25 years before this series of events plays out.

Re: Ask HN: What is the future of the entry-level software engineering job?

#35

Prompt engineering will become an important skill -- i.e., finding the right words and ways to harness the power of generative AI. Learning to stitch together AI tools (using the output from one tool as an input into another tool) seems like it will be in demand as well.

At some point, hopefully we'll also figure out how to get AI to catch itself when it makes bugs. This will also be an important skill.

Or otherwise to recognize what type of bugs the AI will make -- like the way you know what type of bugs junior engineers will make.

Re: Ask HN: What is the future of the entry-level software engineering job?

#36
post #34

If entry-level software jobs are being eliminated by AI or other means, how will people gain the experience necessary to become more senior developers?

I think there's a good chance of there being some really bad bugs/system failures in about 25 years because of this. "AI can do code" -> less experienced engineers -> no one has deep understanding of the whole system -> boom. But it will take 25 years before this series of events plays out.

My guess is that software quality will get slightly worse. We already have enough people copy-pasting from stackoverflow... Now they just copy paste from LLM... Which might or might not have had any human eyes to up and down vote...

Re: Ask HN: What is the future of the entry-level software engineering job?

#37

Prompt engineering will become an important skill -- i.e., finding the right words and ways to harness the power of generative AI. Learning to stitch together AI tools (using the output from one tool as an input into another tool) seems like it will be in demand as well.

The point about stitching together resonates.

Taping together might be a better analogy. Duct tape ... mumble mumble ... Rube Goldberg machines ... mumble mumble ... whack-a-mole, er, whack-a-bug ...

Re: Ask HN: What is the future of the entry-level software engineering job?

#38

Prompt engineering along with being able to describe problems exceptionally well will become important. Just the other day I needed to write a complex script using a library I knew very little about. I knew "what" I wanted to do and that the library could solve the issue, but did not know enough about the lib to to solve it. I wrote pseudo-code and ChatGPT was able to generate a working script on the first shot. I pr…

My experience has been... if you are competent enough to write a good prompt, you were probably good enough to write the code to being with. LLM copilots simply make that writing faster by 1.5x to 2x

With the same or higher ratio of bugs?

Re: Ask HN: What is the future of the entry-level software engineering job?

#39

I don’t think there’s going to be much change if any in the next 5 years. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills when I see people say LLMs can replace software engineers. Maybe if you’re writing basic CRUD web apps, but most systems have enough complexity that an LLM cannot currently ascertain. Not to say they’re not helpful - ChatGPT is jawdroppingly good at pointing out bugs in code. They’re going to make people more…

Thanks for the perspective. Any predictions on how long before junior roles open up again / what are you seeing at your employer?

If I had to guess, it'll be spring/summer 2025 until hiring freezes fully go away and non-senior role open up. Maybe start of 2025. These may be conservative estimates. More optimistic guesses would be fall 2024.

I say this because Interest Rates will be most likely lower than what they're at right now, which will cause money to flow into companies through VC and public investment.

Just a guess though, could easily be wrong. Keep an eye on startup investment and public ipo activity as a potential indicator of things.

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