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Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

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Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#31

Post by obscurette »

trabant00 wrote: post #12

As long as the war in Ukraine lasts I don't think we are going to see any improvement. A lot of money is going there and so the value of the money remaining for investing, development, spending, is diminished. As for the war I initially guessed 3-5 years, now I'm guessing 10. So I'm quite pessimistic about the near future.

As someone living nearby and having relatives in Russia ... I don't see a way Russia is able to fight years. They just don't have resources for that. The war in Donbas since 2014 was a tiny and very different one compared to the war since 2022.

This doesn't mean that Ukraine will stop to get resources from West if war is over though. Ukraine needs a lot of help years and even decades after the war is over.

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#32

Post by marcinzm »

trabant00 wrote: post #12

As long as the war in Ukraine lasts I don't think we are going to see any improvement. A lot of money is going there and so the value of the money remaining for investing, development, spending, is diminished. As for the war I initially guessed 3-5 years, now I'm guessing 10. So I'm quite pessimistic about the near future.

The US sent something like $100 billion to Ukraine last year which comes out to a grand total of 1.5% of the US budget and 0.4% of the US GDP. Large in absolute terms but not relative terms.

That is also about how much the US spent on Afghanistan per year and that was sustained for over 20 years.

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#33

Post by Tepix »

waihtis wrote: post #30
Macha wrote: post #22

Can't speak for startups, not a big employer in my market (possibly this is the cause of the mitigated impact here), but as for job seekers: 2021/2022 were insane here. Recruiters trying every angle to get your attention, companies doubling in size. It feels like here (Ireland) though, the retreat was much less pronounced. It feels more like 2019/2020 than any kind of crash. I know people who have been laid off, they…

Europe-based companies probably did a lot less junk hires and that's why things appear to be more stable here.

Indeed the DAX (german stock index) is at an all-time high.

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#34

Post by Tade0 »

It's too early to say - we will have to wait for September, when the backlog of recruitment targets from two quarters will have to be flushed.

In any case over here in Poland - a fairly popular outsourcing destination - FAANG have been hiring all this time.

Basically some jobs permanently moved to where employers can get away with paying 50-70% of what they used to.

Recruitment is also being increasingly outsourced - your standard corporate drone contracts are handled by people who don't speak the local language.

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#36

Post by saargrin »

Macha wrote: post #22

Can't speak for startups, not a big employer in my market (possibly this is the cause of the mitigated impact here), but as for job seekers: 2021/2022 were insane here. Recruiters trying every angle to get your attention, companies doubling in size. It feels like here (Ireland) though, the retreat was much less pronounced. It feels more like 2019/2020 than any kind of crash. I know people who have been laid off, they…

wait till full impact of reasonably capable AI coding engines hits

juniors will be basically unhireable :/

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#37

Post by marcinzm »

obscurette wrote: post #31
trabant00 wrote: post #12

As long as the war in Ukraine lasts I don't think we are going to see any improvement. A lot of money is going there and so the value of the money remaining for investing, development, spending, is diminished. As for the war I initially guessed 3-5 years, now I'm guessing 10. So I'm quite pessimistic about the near future.

As someone living nearby and having relatives in Russia ... I don't see a way Russia is able to fight years. They just don't have resources for that. The war in Donbas since 2014 was a tiny and very different one compared to the war since 2022. This doesn't mean that Ukraine will stop to get resources from West if war is over though. Ukraine needs a lot of help years and even decades after the war is over.

The US economy alone is over 10x that of Russia. The US can fairly easily send enough military aid to Ukraine that matching it would eat more than all of Russia's yearly GDP growth. In other words they'd slowly strange Russia's economy over time. And it'd cost the US about as much as they spent on Afghanistan pet year and that was sustained for over two decades.

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#38

Post by phreeza »

saargrin wrote: post #36
Macha wrote: post #22

Can't speak for startups, not a big employer in my market (possibly this is the cause of the mitigated impact here), but as for job seekers: 2021/2022 were insane here. Recruiters trying every angle to get your attention, companies doubling in size. It feels like here (Ireland) though, the retreat was much less pronounced. It feels more like 2019/2020 than any kind of crash. I know people who have been laid off, they…

wait till full impact of reasonably capable AI coding engines hits juniors will be basically unhireable :/

Why? If anything, they will become instantly more productive, so they may even be more in demand?

Re: Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

#39

Post by ownagefool »

benreesman wrote: post #11

One anecdote here: for me personally the job/funding market collapsed in maybe December of 2022. In November I got ~10 inbound pings from credible recruiters or HR folks at credible shops a week, and that was typical of probably the last 5 or 10 years. In December it was zero and has stayed zero until this month when I’ve had 2. Outbound resumes and pinging the network was pretty much “I wish I could help you” all ye…

Similar here, but in the UK.

I got some decent prospects post Dec 2022, but wasn't actually on the market until Dec where it was just dead, and of the few that do pop up, they money is way down, and the competition is high.

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