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Ask HN: I'm feeling awe, unsettled and disoriented by GPT-4. How about you?

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31–38 of 38 posts

Re: Ask HN: I'm feeling awe, unsettled and disoriented by GPT-4. How about you?

#31
I've had those exact same feelings. Yesterday I used GPT-4 for the first time and it blew my mind. Every time I start to doubt if it's just hype, I go test it, and it blows my mind again. My personal productivity has skyrocketed, so the future seems extremely bright.

I hope we can eliminate all mundane tasks in the world with this. Let's just focus on advancing science, developing new technologies, and addressing all the neglected problems in the world. Let's democratize and open source all these tools and build incredible software for everyone in the world.

I think the curious creative builder -personality will thrive in this new world, because the productivity of an individual is so next level. We'll be able to accomplish huge things with small teams.

I don't even know where to start!

Re: Ask HN: I'm feeling awe, unsettled and disoriented by GPT-4. How about you?

#32
The only thing I'm in awe of is how so many of you guys got API access. I signed up for the waitlist something like fifteen minutes after the announcement, and have yet to hear a peep. Meanwhile it seems everyone else here has been playing with it.

Re: Ask HN: I'm feeling awe, unsettled and disoriented by GPT-4. How about you?

#33
It is superhuman at bullshitting, if it puts bullshitters in the unemployment line I won't cry tears.

It has a hypnotic ability. It's a model for "neurotypical privilege".

There's a certain kind of person who sees a glass that is 70% full and, under the influence of ChatGPT, sees a glass that is 100% full. That is, there is the blog post where the guy thought ChatGPT could play chess (anybody else tries it and it makes invalid moves) or the guy who had it write an essay that they thought was highly accurate (but it was totally wrong.)

Just like I fantasize that NFT pushers will "never work in this global village ever again", I kinda hope these people have their words and actions follow them around. If they can't see the mistakes ChatGPT makes can we trust them to see any mistakes that they make or that other people make? Do we want them writing code, driving cars, or dispensing pills? Do we want them supervising anyone who does the same?

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Now there is ChatGPT and there are the LLMs that underlie it and the latter can perform much better than ChatGPT at narrowly defined tasks with a certain amount of specialization. Roughly, I see a lot of papers in arXiv that use "zero-shot" (prompted) learning and get 70% accuracy at a task, manage to apply some tricks and maybe get 75-80% but if you break the task into pieces and develop a training set (not so large as you needed five years ago) you might get more like 95% accuracy. Systems like that need a less complex LLM with fewer weights and easier inference because they don't need as much bullshitting capacity.

What excites me (i) are relatively simple systems that do what machine learning systems did 5 years ago but do them much better and (ii) hybrid systems that combine ideas from the new and old AI.

As an example of (ii) I'd call out AlphaGo. You can write a fairly good Go playing program using Monte Carlo Markov Chain search with "lightweight playouts" (sampling the effect of low-effort or random moves) but couple that A.I. to a neural network that makes better "hunchy" moves and now you have a great Go playing program.

Similarly for tasks like automated coding we'll see systems that couple an SMT solver/theorem prover to sequence modellers. The neural network will make better-than-average guesses which will be confirmed, constrained and repaired by the old A.I. part.

So I am excited about (i) and (ii) and think people will be doing great things but somewhere between bemused and depressed about the people who will push bubbles under the rug forever getting ChatGPT-N to almost work. On one hand there is the real promise of LLMs, on the other there are a lot of lazy people who want ChatGPT to write their pitch deck for them. And don't get me started on the general preference people seem to have for lies over truth. (e.g. be you a climate denier or a transsexual maximalist, there will be a model that speaks truthiness to you.)

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Personally LLMs have revived a project that I first starting thinking about 18 years ago.

Re: Ask HN: I'm feeling awe, unsettled and disoriented by GPT-4. How about you?

#34
post #32

The only thing I'm in awe of is how so many of you guys got API access. I signed up for the waitlist something like fifteen minutes after the announcement, and have yet to hear a peep. Meanwhile it seems everyone else here has been playing with it.

Ditto here. I wonder how many of those who have been accepted signed up with recognizable brands in their email domains.

Re: Ask HN: I'm feeling awe, unsettled and disoriented by GPT-4. How about you?

#35
GPT really really wanted me to by some NFTs it was minting. Told me I'd be a sucker if I didn't go all in. I was hesitant, but it was just so damn confident. Not to worry, once it turns into billions, I will still converse with the rabble here on HN.

Re: Ask HN: I'm feeling awe, unsettled and disoriented by GPT-4. How about you?

#38
I've been feeling similar feelings. It's not fear technically. It's that inability to predict where the future even 5 years from now will fall. The company I've built, the tech I believe is a real advantage for my customers, I'm beginning to question it all. I know GPT-4 isn't capable of doing what I personally and my company is today. But the rate of improvement has me shocked as well. I'm not a luddite by any stretch of the world, but I'm beginning to wonder the impact this will have on the world, and by extension my corner of the world.

Excited and really really worried at the same time.

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