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Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

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Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#31

Post by nostrademons »

Throwawayaerlei wrote: post #20
version_five wrote: post #3

> Cold War 2.0 is coming This would be a blessing. I think we can trace most of our problems back to the end of the cold war. If we have some common thing to fight against we stop fighting each other (see Watchmen- ironically though it was about ending the cold war but a level down it works) More realistic is a 1984 style "continuous but meaningless war" that lets the various parties pursue their ideological aims wit…

"I think we can trace most of our problems back to the end of the cold war. If we have some common thing to fight against we stop fighting each other...." That never happened during the Cold War from what I've read, and from what I observed starting in the early 1970s it steadily got worse.

Note that the 1970s was a time of detente in the Cold War, so it supports the OPs point. As we started to forget about the Russians, we started to fight each other. The 80s is often held up as a time of renewed national unity, and it corresponds with heightened Cold War fears.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#32

Post by scarface74 »

jesuscript wrote: post #25

Why did the west even go to China in the first place? Cheaper labor. China can’t go do what the West does by meta colonizing (economically colonizing) South America, India, Africa and South East Asia because their people need the low wage jobs too. The West will just go elsewhere. If China and Russia don’t want the business, someone else will. And when suddenly those other someones become the growth story, China/Russ…

How much do you actually know about manufacturing in China? China is not where comps it’s go for “cheap labor”. Companies aren’t building clothing factories in China.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#33

Post by givemeethekeys »

nostromo wrote: post #15

This only really matters if you live in China or Russia. Everyone else will do just fine or better as manufacturing in China plateaus or declines and Russia’s sphere of influence recedes to its own border. The US will continue to grow modestly but steadily with decent governance, lots of resources, and a growing population.

I keep wondering who'll work in all the factory jobs. How much will the jobs pay and how much will the rest of the people need to be able to make in order to afford Made in America things.

Would appreciate insight into this.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#35

Post by pg_bot »

It's highly unlikely that we will enter a sustained period of low growth. It is too advantageous for all parties to continue interconnecting economies. Any country that chooses to isolate themselves from the rest of the world will find that it is much more difficult to be self sufficient than they imagined.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#36

Post by hyperhopper »

givemeethekeys wrote: post #33
nostromo wrote: post #15

This only really matters if you live in China or Russia. Everyone else will do just fine or better as manufacturing in China plateaus or declines and Russia’s sphere of influence recedes to its own border. The US will continue to grow modestly but steadily with decent governance, lots of resources, and a growing population.

I keep wondering who'll work in all the factory jobs. How much will the jobs pay and how much will the rest of the people need to be able to make in order to afford Made in America things. Would appreciate insight into this.

We need legislative changes to make that lifestyle sustainable, because at the current rate it will become less and less so.

In the long long term, probably will only end with legislation, revolt, or dystopian outcomes.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#38

Post by jesuscript »

scarface74 wrote: post #32
jesuscript wrote: post #25

Why did the west even go to China in the first place? Cheaper labor. China can’t go do what the West does by meta colonizing (economically colonizing) South America, India, Africa and South East Asia because their people need the low wage jobs too. The West will just go elsewhere. If China and Russia don’t want the business, someone else will. And when suddenly those other someones become the growth story, China/Russ…

How much do you actually know about manufacturing in China? China is not where comps it’s go for “cheap labor”. Companies aren’t building clothing factories in China.

Clothing factories is how it started. They weren’t exactly talking a whole lot of shit as we kept investing in that trade partnership up until they got to this advanced point.

So, if this is the end of the line, we simply have to start again from zero in other economies. Start with the Nike sneakers all over again in some other part of the world, and don’t ever let it get so far where they also make your technology.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#39

Post by bombcar »

I guess there are two questions:

1. Will we have hyperinflation at some point?

2. Will we have all-out war?

Everything else can be answered by the standard "don't spend more than you make, invest in a broad-market index, keep your reserves available".

But if you have those things covered, you may want to consider thinking about what you could do to mitigate 1 and/or 2. You don't have to go bunker-prepper, but you can do things that could help in those cases (and even in boring emergencies like hurricanes) - for example, change your eating habits to always have 2 weeks-6 months of food on stock, rotating through it, things like that.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#40

Post by knewter »

lordentropy wrote: post #24

I wish it was just a cold war. It has turned into a real fucking disaster. Despot Putin does not seem to be backing off, and perhaps will destroy all of Ukraine's vital infrastructure no matter the cost. If Ukrainians still stand still, he will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons.

"Putin will not hesitate to nuke his neighboring country"

I frequently wish people could read their words but with my reactions to them

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