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Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

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Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#31
If you're ok with a video format, I'd really recommend the TLDR News UK. (https://www.youtube.com/c/TLDRNews) It's fairly accessible but not dumbed down. The last 4 or so videos relate to the problems since Truss. If you want to dig deeper they also have daily summaries and podcasts diving deeper into specific issues.

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#32
post #2

In a few words, PM Truss's first economic measures indicate that she's ideologically-driven and has no idea what she's doing. Namely, cutting taxes for the rich in hope that maybe some economic boost will "trickle-down" to the middle class and the poor. This idea is utterly discredited in economic circles. The UK central bank, the BoE, is forced to take measures to counteract what Truss and her government are doing !…

The bigger problem is the energy-price guarantee that Truss has announced that will put a ceiling on fuel price for consumers, with the difference born by the UK treasury - estimated outflow is more than 100 Billion pounds. This outflow is planned to be funded by borrowing, which has resulted in a weaker pound.

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#33
post #3

The pound is low against the dollar, as is the Euro low against the dollar. The pound dropped in value a few days ago, but the price has recovered since then. The media chooses to focus on the drop rather than the recovery, because the drop coincided with a government announcement of some pro-growth economic policies that mainstream pundits disagree with. If you speak to people in the U.K. many would agree that payin…

Quite frankly, you are hugely privileged to be earning at that level. The median average salary in the UK is just under £26k. Also, when you are that income level, there are a number of tax benefits you can enjoy - for example the first £40k you put into your pension is before tax - so it effectively reduces your salary (for tax purposes) by £40k. SO if you are doing the sensible thing and putting money into a pensio…

Yes I do pay plenty into my pension.

It's not my "privilege" to earn at that level. I was born into an average economic background. I worked really hard at school and university, and then over a period of seventeen years, I worked really hard in responsible jobs.

If all people from average backgrounds took the attitude that only "privileged" people get good careers, then unfortunately it would be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Luckily there are plenty of aspirational people in the UK looking to better their family's situation by advancing their careers.

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#34
post #12

Led by the US, the entire world is in a debt spiral, and just like many of the systems that sustain modern civilization, the global economy itself is in various stages of unraveling from its unsustainable path [1] [1] - https://lookingglasseducation.com/whats-a-debt-spiral-and-is...

A little to coarse, since OP asked about the UK. But Obama already acknowledged that the US will never pay back all their debt, "even if they get 10% GDP increase per year for every single year" if I am not mistaken about that non-verbatim quote.

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#36

The UK imports large amounts of energy and other things essential to its prosperity. The UK has a current account deficit which means it does not have enough of the dollar to cover for its imports. It has solved this problem over the years by borrowing and becoming a haven for investment to cover up the shortfall. Now we have a bat shit government that says we need to lower taxes and borrow a boat load of money to ti…

> One way to stop this is to raise interest rates and pull pounds out of circulation but the government is terrified of popping the real estate bubble.

I'm pretty sure i'm being naive here but... why?

House ownership has become a huge problem for recent generations in the UK, I still haven't engaged with the market because it's so hard to get a foot in the door unless you have masses of disposable income. Popping the bubble would help a lot of people in the UK to begin a more healthy long term financial life (i.e compared to pouring a huge chunk of your income into the pockets of landlords instead of a house you end up owning).

Is it that at a market scale there would be repercussions outweighing the obvious benefits to citizens? Or are they just protecting the rich who want to maintain the value of their "assets".

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#37
post #10
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For that reason I chose to quit my job as a software team manager in an investment bank and instead went to work as a developer in a startup. > I decided there’s no point in working long hours in a responsible job helping other people advance their careers if I keep less than 40p of every pound I earn at that point. I may as well do less responsible work that I enjoy instead. This is an extremely funny takeaway in…

Oh yes, you're not wrong. Many people on the left see tax as an appropriate punishment for wealth. In their worldview, wealthy people are demonised and dehumanised. The left are convinced that wealthy people are parasitic on society. This leftwing ideology seems peculiar to me, having seen the data on who's funding public services, and who's benefiting from public services.

>This leftwing ideology seems peculiar to me, having seen the data on who's funding public services, and who's benefiting from public services.

The thing is, even people who pay $100,000 a year in taxes actually gain far more value than that from a properly functioning society with strong public services and social safety nets. It's hard to put a proper price on personal safety or the opportunity cost of having to spend time, energy and money on securing your family and belongings rather than just being able to generally trust the people around you.

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#38
post #2

In a few words, PM Truss's first economic measures indicate that she's ideologically-driven and has no idea what she's doing. Namely, cutting taxes for the rich in hope that maybe some economic boost will "trickle-down" to the middle class and the poor. This idea is utterly discredited in economic circles. The UK central bank, the BoE, is forced to take measures to counteract what Truss and her government are doing !…

Well, Truss was not elected because of her economic (or any other) competence, but because of her hardliner course against Russia.

Rishi Sunak was a better choice in every category, but had two problems:

1. he is not "white"

2. he is not anti-Russian enough

EDIT: By "elected" I meant "elected by her own party".

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#39
post #2

In a few words, PM Truss's first economic measures indicate that she's ideologically-driven and has no idea what she's doing. Namely, cutting taxes for the rich in hope that maybe some economic boost will "trickle-down" to the middle class and the poor. This idea is utterly discredited in economic circles. The UK central bank, the BoE, is forced to take measures to counteract what Truss and her government are doing !…

I think the old adage “correlation is not causation” applies somewhat. It’s probably true that the market got worried about the UKs ability to service its long term debt, but Truss’ announcement came in the middle of the worst bear market in bonds for well over a decade. Also, e.g. the Swedish crown (SEK) has lost about as much against the US dollar as the pound has, completely unrelated to Truss and her announcement.

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#40

In simple terms, the Bank of England and UK Gov are pursuing conflicting economic policies, BoE trying to take money out of circulation through hiking up interest rates, whilst UK Gov is putting money into circulation by proposing massive debt funded tax cuts. The obvious incoherency of this then led to the markets losing confidence in the UK economy, crashing the value of the pound, which in turn makes the planned U…

Between the tax cuts and the energy-price guarantee, the bigger problem is the energy-price guarantee that has been announced by the government. It will put a cap on fuel prices for consumers and the resulting deficit is planned to be funded by the treasury. The deficit is estimated to be more than 100 Billion pounds, and it is planned to be funded by government borrowing. This has resulted in a weaker pound.
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