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Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

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Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#31

Post by dokein »

javajosh wrote: post #21
Alex3917 wrote: post #13

For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%. And short of them dying, their business isn't going anywhere because keeping a SaaS startup online doesn't cost anything -- if you have the skills to do it yourself. Whereas the odds of a venture backed startup shutting down at any point over the next ten years is something like 30%. So from a r…

IANAA (I am not an actuary) but surely this can't be the entire computation. Death is only one reason a solo SaaS might fail. The real problem is mental noise, and the fact that large organizations have the positive side-effect of averaging out that noise to produce coherent, predictable actions. (The humanist wants to point out the "noise" is sentiment, artistry, beauty, and the coherent behavior is that of a profit…

I don't think one needs to be an actuary to appreciate that comparing the mortality rate of solo founders with the failure rate of VC backed companies doesn't make sense.

When he is asked to defend it, he clarifies that he's only talking about companies that solve a major pain point, have no other competitors, and a low cost of implementation. (Obviously the failure rate of VC-backed companies with amazing PMF and amazing operating margins is much lower than 30%!)

His comment is the highest voted in this thread (assuming HN sorts that way) -- this is a classic example of 'this person says something I want to believe and has some numbers so I'll upvote it without even a rudimentary interrogation!'

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#32

Post by rob_c »

This is like asking do I trust a loan shark. Yes some are probably just in it for a 10% return and will be on their way and some want your first born to work for them.

As with borrowing any money or taking any investment. Do some research about the investor and if in doubt try to reach out to an independent expert for an opinion on an offer in principle. If they're offended you do this you probably don't want to risk working with them.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#33

Post by quickthrower2 »

It depends on the nature of the dependency being taken.

(Startups are roughly in the same bucket. As is Google X where X is less than 5 yo)

If you are a pingdom clone then sure! I will easily be able to move to another pingdom clone.

If you send my emails, I can move too bit with a bit more pain and maybe some spam reputation issues.

If you organise all my teams work that is more of a headache to move off of.

If you provide a very specific breeof cloud platform, like a Firebase clone, and I am coded up to the eyeballs with a tight coupling to your api, I would be way more wary. If you go down so do I for quite some time.

But if your cloud is just a faster PostgreSQL then maybe that is not so bad.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#34

Post by Alex3917 »

alcio wrote: post #26
Alex3917 wrote: post #13

For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%. And short of them dying, their business isn't going anywhere because keeping a SaaS startup online doesn't cost anything -- if you have the skills to do it yourself. Whereas the odds of a venture backed startup shutting down at any point over the next ten years is something like 30%. So from a r…

> For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2% The real figure is more 2.1% (source: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html )

Fair, I was just going by the risk of fatal cardiovascular events: https://www.cvriskcalculator.com/

I feel like the indie hacking lifestyle doesn't really attract people who are at high risk for most other common causes of death at that age, in the same way that, say, raising venture capital seems to be an attractive option for people already at risk of suicide or drug overdose.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#35

Post by yakshaving_jgt »

throwoutway wrote: post #30
alcio wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2% The real figure is more 2.1% (source: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html )

Which is about the same rate that airlines lose luggage. (Unrelated comparison but analogies can help)

I've experienced an airline losing my luggage, but I haven't experienced death yet.

Maybe I'm immortal :)

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#36

Post by yawnxyz »

considering even "real" companies drop the ball (and entire product features and customers) willy nilly (e.g. Twitter API, Brex ...) I don't really trust anyone — always have a backup plan if a service goes away.

Same thing with clients if you're a contractor — don't rely on that client to pay 60%+ of your income — you'll be in for a world of hurt if something happens with that relationship.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#37

Post by p0nce »

My products have no copy protection so that you can use them / backup in the event I die. Besides that, the bias against "small" is so strong, that the end users just don't need to know how small the actual team is. Customers will, again and again, judge things differently depending on branding, and bigger brands tend to win out. Trust is also earned by being dependable, long-lived and focus on quality, and that's what "we" do. Saying you're solo can easily be an excuse for not competing.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#38

Post by zmxz »

If I can carry on with my business and use your software in the event in which you cease to exist, then yes.

Cease to exist = any event that deletes you from the equation from bankrupcy to the worst case scenario - death.

If you're the bus factor of 1, then I would never use your software (speaking from organisation POV).

If there's a contingency in place, and your software solves the problem I have (speaking from organisation POV), then yes.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#39

Post by darkerside »

yakshaving_jgt wrote: post #35
throwoutway wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is about the same rate that airlines lose luggage. (Unrelated comparison but analogies can help)

I've experienced an airline losing my luggage, but I haven't experienced death yet. Maybe I'm immortal :)

Literal survivorship bias :-D

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#40

Post by formvoltron »

alcio wrote: post #26
Alex3917 wrote: post #13

For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%. And short of them dying, their business isn't going anywhere because keeping a SaaS startup online doesn't cost anything -- if you have the skills to do it yourself. Whereas the odds of a venture backed startup shutting down at any point over the next ten years is something like 30%. So from a r…

> For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2% The real figure is more 2.1% (source: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html )

I guess most entrepreneurs are not dying from drugs or guns as they are simply too busy!
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