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Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

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Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#31

Post by rjtavares »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #28
oDot wrote: post #19

The only school that has any explanation for this is the Austrian School of Economics. Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened. Mises and Hayek wrote big and hard to read books about it, but two that explain this to the layman are "Meltdown" b…

> Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened. A prediction without timing is no prediction at all.

Also, I fail to see how an economic theory can predict a depression caused by a pandemic...

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#32

Post by Tangokat »

The markets and the economy move so fast now I prefer content which updates very regularly. A lot of material is simply outdated.

Real vision[0] has some really good content. It's not super easily digestable for someone not in professional finance but I think finance is just too complicated to simplify and not lose a lot of nuance. I'm trying to learn and have to look up a lot of stuff but it has been fun. I think they have 1 month trial for $1. I recommend Raoul Pal's recent video "The Unfolding" as a starting point.

I also think Macro Voices[1] podcasts are very solid. Again not very easy content but experts in various fields help to make sense of the bigger picture. You can choose a bit depending on what you're interested in (gold, bitcoin, bonds etc).

It's worth noting that NOBODY knows what is really going to happen, all you can do is try to get informed opinions and set probabilities. If you're looking for investment advice trying to time the market or sectors, I would stop looking. The uncertainty does not favour amateurs in my opinion.

[0]https://www.realvision.com/tv/home

[1]https://www.macrovoices.com/

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#33

Post by oDot »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #28
oDot wrote: post #19

The only school that has any explanation for this is the Austrian School of Economics. Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened. Mises and Hayek wrote big and hard to read books about it, but two that explain this to the layman are "Meltdown" b…

> Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened. A prediction without timing is no prediction at all.

It definitely is. The Austrians are very prepared for this crisis, and it seems like it was useful to some people shorting in 2006-2008.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#34

Post by ace32229 »

oDot wrote: post #19

The only school that has any explanation for this is the Austrian School of Economics. Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened. Mises and Hayek wrote big and hard to read books about it, but two that explain this to the layman are "Meltdown" b…

> they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing

What does this mean?

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#36

Post by ace32229 »

oDot wrote: post #33
IAmGraydon wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened. A prediction without timing is no prediction at all.

It definitely is. The Austrians are very prepared for this crisis, and it seems like it was useful to some people shorting in 2006-2008.

The Austrian school predicted a disease-related economic crisis?

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#39

Post by oDot »

rjtavares wrote: post #31
IAmGraydon wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened. A prediction without timing is no prediction at all.

Also, I fail to see how an economic theory can predict a depression caused by a pandemic...

This crisis was not caused by the Corona virus. It is only the pin that burst a bubble that was already there, and if no virus would have happened, something else would have burst it. Austrians see the depression as a necessary correction, and the bubble as a problem.

I actually sat down for a few hours to calculate what would have happened if this pandemic happened in the 50s, and no one could work (especially true since there was no internet). Seems like people saved enough for a year at home, on average. Today people are so levered up not only do they not have savings, they have to pay back debt.

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