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Ask HN: When do you expect life will get back to “normal”?

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Re: Ask HN: When do you expect life will get back to “normal”?

#31

Post by hither2 »

Tepix wrote: post #22
hither2 wrote: post #19

A few weeks. This is an over-reaction. The push for suppressing entire populations for months and years are coming from those that want to dis-empower these populations the rest of the time. If by "normal" you mean the neo-liberal/neo-marxist agenda "progressing"... that is increasingly unlikely

Hardly an over-reaction with 100.000 expected deaths. Of course earlier actions might have prevented this tragedy.

Yes, earlier actions definitely should have been taken.

Interestingly, there seems to be a collective delusion developing about when the action could of/should of been taken. Late January...early February...really? That long?

Re: Ask HN: When do you expect life will get back to “normal”?

#32

Post by sonicggg »

A lot of people seem to hope the vaccine will lead to the end of the pandemic, but that won't happen necessarily. That's not what ended the Spanish Flu pandemic.

There's a limit on how far pandemics can go, even considering mutations. It's funny that when we try to lecture people about pyramid schemes, we always say : "you'll run out of people on Earth pretty quickly to sustain this scheme", but when it comes to pandemics, we forget this advice.

Re: Ask HN: When do you expect life will get back to “normal”?

#33

Post by hither2 »

atemerev wrote: post #26
hither2 wrote: post #19

A few weeks. This is an over-reaction. The push for suppressing entire populations for months and years are coming from those that want to dis-empower these populations the rest of the time. If by "normal" you mean the neo-liberal/neo-marxist agenda "progressing"... that is increasingly unlikely

“Liberal” and “marxist” in a single sentence... What gives.

At least 150 years of politics.

Re: Ask HN: When do you expect life will get back to “normal”?

#34

Post by Tenoke »

My tentative guess is around June. It seems like the ramp up is slowing down after a while in a lot of countries. Look at the 'New Daily Cases' graphs for separate countries[0]. So maybe another ~1 month or so of ramp-up and then after a while some ramp down. Maybe a bit worse in the US than elsewhere.

Of course, the impact will be felt for a long time.

0. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Re: Ask HN: When do you expect life will get back to “normal”?

#35

Post by Rerarom »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #29

Folks are estimating many weeks, even months. But consider: the doubling time is around 4-5 days. We'll hit 1M worldwide maybe Friday. 40 days after that, we'll hit 1B people. That's about the estimated total that typically get infected by a pandemic. Peak infection. Two or three weeks after that, everybody will be through it. No problem; scars and health issues; death; whatever, it'll be over. So 60 days to do anyth…

Second this.

Re: Ask HN: When do you expect life will get back to “normal”?

#36

Post by blueboo »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #29

Folks are estimating many weeks, even months. But consider: the doubling time is around 4-5 days. We'll hit 1M worldwide maybe Friday. 40 days after that, we'll hit 1B people. That's about the estimated total that typically get infected by a pandemic. Peak infection. Two or three weeks after that, everybody will be through it. No problem; scars and health issues; death; whatever, it'll be over. So 60 days to do anyth…

Ah, but the big question is how much curve-flattening stretches it out in your country of residence.

Some societies will choose such that their medical infrastructure will be at 10x capacity for ten times as long rather than be at 100x capacity.

Others will manage to stamp it out, only to endure subsequent flare-ups.

Unconstrained doubling is only a popular policy among oligarchs in power. To be fair, they do have a lot of power...

Re: Ask HN: When do you expect life will get back to “normal”?

#38

Post by JoeAltmaier »

blueboo wrote: post #36
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #29

Folks are estimating many weeks, even months. But consider: the doubling time is around 4-5 days. We'll hit 1M worldwide maybe Friday. 40 days after that, we'll hit 1B people. That's about the estimated total that typically get infected by a pandemic. Peak infection. Two or three weeks after that, everybody will be through it. No problem; scars and health issues; death; whatever, it'll be over. So 60 days to do anyth…

Ah, but the big question is how much curve-flattening stretches it out in your country of residence. Some societies will choose such that their medical infrastructure will be at 10x capacity for ten times as long rather than be at 100x capacity. Others will manage to stamp it out, only to endure subsequent flare-ups. Unconstrained doubling is only a popular policy among oligarchs in power. To be fair, they do have a…

Evidence to date outside Asia is, zero flattening. Most places. Thus my estimate.

If you want to posit some slight flattening, then 70 day? No more.

The terrible power of geometric growth cannot be resisted for long. You need to change the growth rules entirely to beat it. No half-measures will do it.

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