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Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

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Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#31

Post by deviantfero »

drstewart wrote: post #19
kstenerud wrote: post #13

It's your typical pandemic response: - denial - placating measures - minor lockdowns - major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason) - total quarantine - life slowly returns to normal China is now on the final stage (restaurants and stores reopening, etc), with the rest of the world between 2 and 3 months behind. Most people are unable to comprehend exponential growth, so…

Total quarantine isn't happening in any western country

It is close to happening in El Salvador

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#32

Post by pmoriarty »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #22

It's a good question. I've been thinking of it this way; If we have an "unlimited" (by which I mean we manufacture them faster than we consume them) number of test kits with a turnaround time of People who test positive go into quarantine to be re-tested weekly until they are immune. People who test immune are allowed to resume work movement while keeping good practice (washing hands, coughing into elbow, Etc.) Peopl…

Regarding immunity, there is evidence that such immunity (if it exists) is short-lived, and after a little while recovered individuals are susceptible to being infected again.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#33

Post by tmpz22 »

drstewart wrote: post #19
kstenerud wrote: post #13

It's your typical pandemic response: - denial - placating measures - minor lockdowns - major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason) - total quarantine - life slowly returns to normal China is now on the final stage (restaurants and stores reopening, etc), with the rest of the world between 2 and 3 months behind. Most people are unable to comprehend exponential growth, so…

Total quarantine isn't happening in any western country

Rumors are it's about to happen in France

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#34

Post by DoofusOfDeath »

smoyer wrote: post #18
smacktoward wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught. This has already happened. “Flatten the curve” takes it as written that most people will be exposed to the virus, and thus aims instead to just spread those exposures over a long enough period to avoid overwhelming the health care system.

I saw a statistical analysis of the flatten the curve idea but assuming we couldn't ramp up the number of intensive care beds, it took 3600 days to fit everyone in under the "available health care" line. It's still a good strategy for right now because it gives us some extra time to ramp testing and healthcare up.

How would that analysis change if we (optimistically) assume that in 2 years, we have a vaccine that's 90% effective?

I would assume that under that scenario, the backlog would disappear shortly after the 2-year mark.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#36

Post by tuna-piano »

The economic loss of a lockdown is just extraordinary. Just think about how many people and resources are idle... Literally trillions of dollars in lost economic potential (let alone the harder to quantify human+health consequences).

So it's crazy to me how little, relative to the hard economic costs of the virus, is being spent on mitigation.

I'm a totally uninformed lay-person, but the below seems reasonable:

Huge testing effort, something like 5% of the country's population gets tested every day (once every 20 days per person). Manage electronically. If positive, quarantine that person and known contacts.

Huge contact tracing and small lockdown strategy (found 10 cases in Omaha, Omaha lockdown for 2 weeks).

Seems that would be doable, cost billions and billions, but enable economic activity and minimize health+human consequences. Would be a great RoI.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#37

Post by dgb23 »

aaron695 wrote: post #24

How long did the HIV vaccine take? Use that as a yard stuck. A lockdown isn't 'successful' it does little, except drag society into the dirt while a little time is bought to work things out. Time China bought us but we squandered. If you're lucky it's a winter desease so it'll become summer and it'll die off. But that's coin flipping a little. Treatments might be found but it's hard to know how fast, especially while…

> A lockdown isn't 'successful' it does little, except drag society into the dirt while a little time is bought to work things out.

Slowing down the spread is useful to soften the blow on medicinal infrastructure.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#38

Post by notyourday »

Leary wrote: post #3

Resume work after countries have the capacity to test everyone who has a fever. Maintain strong hygiene and social distance if possible. Firefight clusters of outbreaks where they occur. Wait for treatment and vaccine.

> Wait for treatment and vaccine.

Isn't this a virus? There's not a single virus that we have a treatment for - we know how to deal with bacteria but not viruses.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#39

Post by phkahler »

smoyer wrote: post #18
smacktoward wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught. This has already happened. “Flatten the curve” takes it as written that most people will be exposed to the virus, and thus aims instead to just spread those exposures over a long enough period to avoid overwhelming the health care system.

I saw a statistical analysis of the flatten the curve idea but assuming we couldn't ramp up the number of intensive care beds, it took 3600 days to fit everyone in under the "available health care" line. It's still a good strategy for right now because it gives us some extra time to ramp testing and healthcare up.

If it's drawn out slow enough, the spread should nearly stop without lockdown once 20-25 percent of the population has recovered. Assuming prior infection offers immunity of course.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#40

Post by tonyedgecombe »

pmoriarty wrote: post #32
ChuckMcM wrote: post #22

It's a good question. I've been thinking of it this way; If we have an "unlimited" (by which I mean we manufacture them faster than we consume them) number of test kits with a turnaround time of People who test positive go into quarantine to be re-tested weekly until they are immune. People who test immune are allowed to resume work movement while keeping good practice (washing hands, coughing into elbow, Etc.) Peopl…

Regarding immunity, there is evidence that such immunity (if it exists) is short-lived, and after a little while recovered individuals are susceptible to being infected again.

Do you have a reference for that as I keep hearing it repeated but I'm yet to see any real evidence for it.
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