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Ask HN: Why is everyone I talk to in the real world so unperturbed by Covid-19?

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31–40 of 48 posts

Re: Ask HN: Why is everyone I talk to in the real world so unperturbed by Covid-19?

#31
I think the reasons are:

1. In most places, the absolute numbers are still very low. If you look at it like "X in a million", X is still low, so it feels like there is no need to panic.

2. Continuing the above, if you compare X to something else, like "getting hit by a car" or something similar, it feels rational to not worry about Corona too much, since you're also not worrying about other things (you're used to the risks).

3. People like Trump are comparing it to the flu.

4. For most healthy, non-smoking people under 50, the risks are relatively low based on the data. Kids seem to be pretty safe from it.

5. Based on official numbers it's contained in China: more people are coming out of the disease than going in, the net number is negative, active cases is declining. [2]

However, 1. + 2. above are only re-assuring if you use the "independent events" mental model, which everyone defaults to. Eg. if you get hit by a car or you get cancer, that doesn't increase my chances. So if the probabilities are low (X in a million), and you and me getting it is independent and the probability is not increasing, then the mental model works, and it's reasonable not to worry. But this mental model is wrong here, because this is viral growth. It's spreading exponentially outside China [1]. So you getting it increases my chances of getting [eventually]. We are not indenependent. It's like the flu in this sense, but it spreads more efficicently and kills more people, so 3. above is also a wrong.

On point 4 above, let's hope this is the case. But, everyone has older/sick relatives..

On point 5 above, it'll be interesting to see how liberal democracies respond, whether they can pull the aggressive measures like curfewing the population that China did. Also, China has a lot of economic resources, not sure how smaller/weaker economies will hold up.

In conclusion, I don't think most people realize that for the next ~3 months (imo for a lot more time), their lifestyles will be drastically different. Until now we were in "1st world yolo" mode, now it'll be: no going to work, no schools, no travel, no socializing, no gym, no events.. A lot of the things we work for, live for, will be put on hold. See China, Italy.

[1] see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/, look for "total cases outside of china", it's a beautiful exponential, the kind that startuppers would kill for... "viral growth"

[2] see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/, look for "active cases in china"

Re: Ask HN: Why is everyone I talk to in the real world so unperturbed by Covid-19?

#32
Because worry is not actionable. Worrying does not achieve anything.

The actions one can take with regards to SARS-CoV-2 are limited. One can avoid being in crowded places close to others when possible, and practice careful hygiene. A minority can work from home. Americans can avoid public transit, but most urban dwellers outside the USA cannot.

Re: Ask HN: Why is everyone I talk to in the real world so unperturbed by Covid-19?

#33
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you "think" you have it? Wouldn't you get quarantined if you were likely to have it?

Vast majority of people who contract the virus just have mild cold or flu symptoms. Very small percentage of infected people end up going to hospitals.

What makes you think you have contracted coronavirus and not for example the common cold?

Re: Ask HN: Why is everyone I talk to in the real world so unperturbed by Covid-19?

#34
News fatigue probably. I no longer take news seriously. I know they are trying to make me worry, that's how they make money. Whatever they say is probably grossly exaggerated.

Someday it'll be like in "the boy who cried wolf", but what can I do.

Re: Ask HN: Why is everyone I talk to in the real world so unperturbed by Covid-19?

#37
I think it has largely to do with people not understanding the power of exponential growth.[0] It doesn't help that the U.S. President ambiguously referred to the coronavirus as "the new hoax".[1] Nor does it help, in my mind, for the U.S. President, Surgeon General, and countless public health officials to compare the current deaths due to COVID-19 to flu deaths.[2]

[0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/10/coronavir...

[1] https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trump-and-the-new-hoax/

[2] Check their official twitter accounts, press conferences, etc.

Re: Ask HN: Why is everyone I talk to in the real world so unperturbed by Covid-19?

#39
post #11

I looked at reported mortality rates and infection rates. Looks just like the regular flu so far. Do you have some data that indicates otherwise?

Low end estimates for mortality rate of covid-19 are ten times higher than regular flu.

So either: You didn’t actually look Or you looked and came to the conclusion that an order of magnitude higher mortality rate was not significant.

So what number would make you think this is worse?

Re: Ask HN: Why is everyone I talk to in the real world so unperturbed by Covid-19?

#40
post #2

It's because they're still in the denial stage. The panic stage will follow very shortly. It's just a matter of social contagion. See also: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/four-thing...

Not really. Some people like to stock up on bottled water and toilet paper so they can play zombie apocalypse, but taking appropriate safety measures to prevent it from spreading is a sufficient response.

Some people like to stock up on bottled water and toilet paper so they can play zombie apocalypse,

And some people on the internet like to feel strong by putting down others for taking reasonable precautions against the prospect of forced quarantines or neighborhood lockdowns.

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