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Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#31

Post by methusala8 »

Animats wrote: post #20

- The Great Dieoff near the equator. Large parts of India and the Middle East become uninhabitable. Hundreds of millions die. The countries further from the equator do not let them in. World population will be lower than it is now. Most of the dieoff will be older people. - US loses Miami and New Orleans to sea level rise, but otherwise does OK. - "Machines should think, people should work" - computers will be doing…

-Large parts of India and the Middle East become uninhabitable

Any particular data/research to support this particular assertion?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#33

Post by kalesh »

We might have a cure to most diseases available to all or only a few would be able to afford good healthcare & rest will have shorter lifespans.

Economic inequality would increase manifolds. There will be less poverty but a whole lot of people struggling for basic healthcare & jobs.

Automation, Robots & AI will be an integral part of society.

Virtual worlds might be as important as real ones. Virtual real estate might be worth more than physical real estate.

People will be dumber as no real problems or creative jobs to work on.

E-sports might be more popular than actual sport.

Some cities might be lost due to sea leval rise.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#34

Post by perfunctory »

werber wrote: post #4

I'm hopeful for a more cooperative human centric future. I think we have the technology to replace old systems and ideas. Things are getting better more then they're getting worse for so many people and I really want to see that pattern accelerate to the point all preventable disease is addressed and access to medical care is universal, there is no risk of famine due to technology advances in food production, there i…

> costal town for the few remaining rich people who have replaced the need for the lower classes by automation

In this scenario there will be no industry left to speak of to support the automation. The remaining people, regardless of their initial wealth, will not be rich.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#35

Post by KnightOfWords »

methusala8 wrote: post #31
Animats wrote: post #20

- The Great Dieoff near the equator. Large parts of India and the Middle East become uninhabitable. Hundreds of millions die. The countries further from the equator do not let them in. World population will be lower than it is now. Most of the dieoff will be older people. - US loses Miami and New Orleans to sea level rise, but otherwise does OK. - "Machines should think, people should work" - computers will be doing…

-Large parts of India and the Middle East become uninhabitable Any particular data/research to support this particular assertion?

Certainly not within 50 years, but this is based on projected wet-bulb temperatures around the equator. The limit for human survivability is the equivalent of 35C at 100% humidity.

"A sustained wet-bulb temperature exceeding 35 °C (95 °F) is likely to be fatal even to fit and healthy people, unclothed in the shade next to a fan; at this temperature our bodies switch from shedding heat to the environment, to gaining heat from it. Thus 35 °C (95 °F) is the threshold beyond which the body is no longer able to adequately cool itself. A study by NOAA from 2013 concluded that heat stress will reduce labor capacity considerably under current emissions scenarios.

A 2010 study concluded that under a worst-case scenario for global warming with temperatures 12 °C (22 °F) higher than 2007, the wet-bulb temperature limit for humans could be exceeded around much of the world in future centuries. A 2015 study concluded that parts of the globe could become uninhabitable. An example of the threshold at which the human body is no longer able to cool itself and begins to overheat is a humidity level of 50% and a high heat of 46 °C (115 °F), as this would indicate a wet-bulb temperature of 35 °C (95 °F)."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature#Wet-bulb_...

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#37

Post by Abishek_Muthian »

Music(Songs) at-least in English language would be largely, completely machine generated.

Reasoning: songs leading the charts are mostly written by same lyricists, music is largely dependent on auto tunes, repetitive sections, machine learning algorithms for audio processing is growing at a fast rate.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#38

Post by virgilp »

True story: inspired by some dude on the internet, I thought I'd try my hand at "predictions". I made a post with my technology predictions for the next 10 or 15 years (not 50, I'm not THAT naive).

I don't have a personal website, so I placed that post on Google+, to have it for future reference. Boy, do I suck at predictions.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#39

Post by Jaruzel »

Nothing will change significantly over the next 50 years, despite people constantly predicting otherwise.

My personal take is that we've reached peak humanity. Without some large shock to the global eco-system there will be no significant progress in anything meaningful. The 20th century only resulted in major advances in many fields of research due to two world wars. War is the driver for change.

If you want a better human race, have another war.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#40

Post by timonoko »

Nothing of real significance will happen. I know this for a fact this because in 1967 I wrote about 2017. Nothing become true, Finland does not have Space Forces, cars do not fly, lasers do remove space junk from orbit etcetc.

The Lasering of space junk was part of Finland's 100 year celebration, instead of fireworks the worn-out space-vessel "Kokko" was destroyed with lasers.

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