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Ask HN: 2011 Predictions

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Re: Ask HN: 2011 Predictions

#31

Post by atamyrat »

cryptoz wrote: post #29
atamyrat wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Year of the Linux desktop? I'm just curious about actual numbers now. Did it reach 1% already?

Does the desktop really matter, though? 2010 is clearly the Year of Linux on the Computer that Fits in your Pocket. Android's gains in smartphone share are nothing short of phenomenal. I think something like 25% of Q3 smartphone sales worldwide were Android...that's incredible. Linux is actually important in the consumer space, right now .

His prediction was specifically about Ubuntu brand, which is mainly known for Desktop.

I really want to see the Bug #1 resolved, but I am not that optimistic.

Re: Ask HN: 2011 Predictions

#32

Post by russell »

aristidb wrote: post #20
chailatte wrote: post #3

Next year austerity and rising interest rate will take root in major economies, forced by runaway inflation in food, gas and commodity prices - caused by massive printing by US/Europe/Japan/China. This will result in money in flight from risky investments (emerging countries, startups, expansions) to safe investments, which will cause job losses in many of those sectors. Healthcare and Food industries will grow. Ente…

My prediction: Overall price inflation in the USA will remain low.

I am curious to know your reasoning. In a post in this thread I was leaning towards inflation in a few years, with the other possibility being a long recession or Japanese style stagflation. The downside would come from an austerity program hitting the middle class.

Re: Ask HN: 2011 Predictions

#34

Post by russell »

jules wrote: post #19

A new paradigm / abstraction in programming languages, like macros, OOP, closures, will be adopted by early adopters in the industry. Will improve coding productivity by 50%.

The curious thing is that they are already here, e.g. Python/Ruby vs Java. According to Clayton Christensen it takes a paradigm shift of over 5x improvement before anyone notices.

I dont think the shift will be programming language based because the decision makers dont pay attention to programmers. (I'm speaking the enterprise world here, not startups.) But I hope you're right, not me. :-)

Re: Ask HN: 2011 Predictions

#37

Post by jules »

russell wrote: post #34
jules wrote: post #19

A new paradigm / abstraction in programming languages, like macros, OOP, closures, will be adopted by early adopters in the industry. Will improve coding productivity by 50%.

The curious thing is that they are already here, e.g. Python/Ruby vs Java. According to Clayton Christensen it takes a paradigm shift of over 5x improvement before anyone notices. I dont think the shift will be programming language based because the decision makers dont pay attention to programmers. (I'm speaking the enterprise world here, not startups.) But I hope you're right, not me. :-)

Right, I'm thinking that X will happen to Python/Ruby like Python/Ruby happened to Java.

A 5x improvement is a lot to ask for...I don't think that Python/Ruby offers 5x over Java, and to get 5x over Python/Ruby will be very hard. Even describing software in reasonably precise English probably doesn't offer 5x over the state of the art.

On the other hand, 50% is definitely feasible. The form this will take is a combination of, among other things:

- Moving away from the dynamicism of Python/Ruby: by sacrificing just a little bit of the dynamicism (like assigning to a variable by string name) you can gain a lot in terms of what IDEs can do and what compilers can do to optimize.

- New constructs that replace the dynamic metaprogramming in Ruby/Python with static metaprogramming, like Lisp's macros and F#'s type providers.

- Merging OOP with functional programming by unifying FP's abstract data types and pattern matching with OOP's classes and runtime dispatch. The resulting system will be something like multimethods or predicate dispatch.

- Testing tools will get more powerful. Randomized testing will play a more important role. We'll get statistical analysis in IDEs that can sometimes pinpoint the line that's causing a bug by running the randomized tests and computing the correlation of "line n was executed" with "the test failed".

- Last but not least, the days of ASCII based programming are over.

> I dont think the shift will be programming language based because the decision makers dont pay attention to programmers. (I'm speaking the enterprise world here, not startups.) But I hope you're right, not me. :-)

I agree. As usual the enterprise world will lag a few years behind...around the time they adopt Python/Ruby/F#/etc, the startup world will have new languages and tools.

Re: Ask HN: 2011 Predictions

#38

Post by pdelgallego »

chailatte wrote: post #12
_b8r0 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your thoughts about inflation are interesting, as I've been expecting them year after year. I'm now convinced there's an effort to spin plates for want of a better word on a more or less global scale. If one major economy goes down it would drag others down with it. I don't think we'll see hyperinflation in the conventional sense, but to put it into perspective we have seen massive inflation in specific targeted area…

That reminds me: there will likely be a default by a major country next year that will drag every economy in the world along with it. My belief is that it will be Ireland, which will affect UK tremendously, since a lot of the Irish debt is held by UK.

I will bet on Portugal, dragging down Spain in it fall.

Re: Ask HN: 2011 Predictions

#40

Post by Keyframe »

tocomment wrote: post #23
Keyframe wrote: post #11

I expect something big from Microsoft - something really really big.

I don't understand why you say that. If the last ten years are any indication then nothing big will come from ms.

Last ten years are indication to me that something big should happen right about now, or else... the spiral from the top down continues.

All of the competition aside (across various spectra in competes in), let's just look at Microsoft itself. It's a beast with huge muscles that lost focus. It's numerous heads are biting all over, but with lost focus and strength. It needs to toughen up and straight it's shit together, and now is the time more so than ever.

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