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Ask HN: Will the US electoral voting system ever change?

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Re: Ask HN: Will the US electoral voting system ever change?

#31

Post by jlangemeier »

chdsbd wrote: post #21
hga wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bingo, and this has been thoroughly analyzed. The election would reduce to 8-10 urban areas, which also makes cheating a lot easier. While we're at it, why don't we remove the other part of the great compromise that gave each state 2 Senators (#electors = #of House of Representative Members + 2) And that's one reason it'll never happen, you won't get enough state legislatures to vote their states out of relevance.

I'm curious. Why do you say this would make cheating easier?

Because you're going directly off of the vote, instead of a representation of that vote via the elector for that area. It's a subtle difference, but one that brings to light some of the fears with direct election.

Re: Ask HN: Will the US electoral voting system ever change?

#32

Post by hga »

tbrock wrote: post #24
exabrial wrote: post #15

I feel like if we eliminated the Electoral College, presidential candidates would only visit areas like La New York City Boston Chicago Atlanta to teach the maximum number of voters. Instead of removing it, are there ways we can improve it?

Instead, today they mostly visit swing states. Is that any better?

For one, it discourages polarization. Yeah, I'm sure many in California are happy it's a near 100% Blue State due to the coastal cities aside from San Diego, but that has consequences in being taken for granted or worse.

And anyway, speaking as someone who lives in a true 100% Red State part of Missouri (Jasper County in the extreme SW), that just changes which election matters, the primaries are were the action is. E.g. this year every county position I could vote for, plus my state house rep, was unopposed a couple of days ago. But that was most certainly not true in our August state primary!

Re: Ask HN: Will the US electoral voting system ever change?

#33

Post by 551199 »

The country is mostly red. Even though Clinton got 200k more votes I'm sure you can see why the the electoral system is in place.

I like to add there is still 4 million votes that are being counted. Projection even from CNN is that Trump wins the popular vote.

[0] https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/geographic-lands.... [1] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-10/trumps-geographic-l....

Re: Ask HN: Will the US electoral voting system ever change?

#34

Post by r_smart »

joeclark77 wrote: post #9

It is meaningless which candidate won the most votes, because the election was not about winning the most votes. If it were, millions more Republicans in hopelessly blue states like California might have voted, and similarly on the other side. We do not know who would have won if it was understood that victory depended on total votes.

This is a really important point. Currently both parties (and voters) strategize based around the rules that are in place. Once the rules change, the strategies will change too. You'll still lose elections, and you'll still end up outraged roughly half the time.

Re: Ask HN: Will the US electoral voting system ever change?

#35

Post by yaks_hairbrush »

LeanderK wrote: post #25
yaks_hairbrush wrote: post #22

A lot of comments here are referencing the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC). If it ever comes to fruition, it would be a rather clever hack to get around needing a constitutional amendment to change/abolish the electoral college. Don't get too optimistic about it going places, though. We've got three types of states these days: red states, swing states, and blue states. Let's look at incentives: Blue…

if i read it right, its really clever but also not very nice to the other states. For the NPVIC not every state has to join it, it comes active when the states that joined the NPVIC have a majority of the electors. Then the electors do not vote according to who won their state, but to who won overall. So if the democratic states and enough swing states all sign the NPVIC to get to 270 electors, they changed the rules…

But where's the NPVIC going to get the 270 EVs from? The blue state contribution is just about maxed out, while swing and red states have no incentive to join it.

Re: Ask HN: Will the US electoral voting system ever change?

#37

Post by joeclark77 »

yaks_hairbrush wrote: post #22

A lot of comments here are referencing the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC). If it ever comes to fruition, it would be a rather clever hack to get around needing a constitutional amendment to change/abolish the electoral college. Don't get too optimistic about it going places, though. We've got three types of states these days: red states, swing states, and blue states. Let's look at incentives: Blue…

What's more: if the shoe were ever on the other foot, say if the popular vote went for the Republican but the electoral vote was due to the Democrat, there isn't a chance in the world that the blue states would keep their end of the bargain. They would immediately sue and block it. The NPVIC is only meant to be binding on red states, and everyone knows it.

Re: Ask HN: Will the US electoral voting system ever change?

#38

Post by ubernostrum »

exabrial wrote: post #15

I feel like if we eliminated the Electoral College, presidential candidates would only visit areas like La New York City Boston Chicago Atlanta to teach the maximum number of voters. Instead of removing it, are there ways we can improve it?

The counterargument is to look at current patterns of candidate visits. They already concentrate a huge amount of time, effort and money on a non-representative sample of the US, because the electoral college system prioritizes that non-representative sample.

Replacing one arbitrary non-representative sample with an arbitrary more-representative sample is not necessarily bad.

Re: Ask HN: Will the US electoral voting system ever change?

#39

Post by samfisher83 »

Its going to be very hard. You need a constitutional amendment. You need to first need 2/3s of congress and the house to approve it and then 3/4ths of the states. Good luck with that ever happening. We have had popular and electoral votes split a few times before and that hasn't changed the constitution.

Re: Ask HN: Will the US electoral voting system ever change?

#40

Post by ubernostrum »

yaks_hairbrush wrote: post #22

A lot of comments here are referencing the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC). If it ever comes to fruition, it would be a rather clever hack to get around needing a constitutional amendment to change/abolish the electoral college. Don't get too optimistic about it going places, though. We've got three types of states these days: red states, swing states, and blue states. Let's look at incentives: Blue…

Imagine telling a Republican "hey, how would you like all those rural Republicans in California to have their vote actually count for once?" Right now there's close to no point for a CA Republican to vote for president, because the state's going for the Democrat no matter what they do. Same is true for many states which go for Democrats: outside of the major cities they have significant Republican populations, who are aware their votes don't matter but suddenly would under a popular-vote system.
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