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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

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Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#291

Post by dont__panic »

pibechorro wrote: post #140
e_joules wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something about this cannot be right, surely? You are saying one can invest in a solar setup and have 7+ years of free electricity, and all that starting after 3.5 years?

I have been living fully off solar (and some wind here and there) for 10 years. Its amazing. Never do I stress powerlines going down, brownouts, etc. You can run a fridge, lights and a laptop 24.7 on about $300 of solar. You can add panels as your needs and budget increases. The biggest cost is the battery.

I'd love to learn more about your setup. I'm very interested in investing in a solar + battery self-sufficient setup for myself, but without electrical engineering experience it's quite intimidating.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#292

Post by rdtwo »

jasonwatkinspdx wrote: post #263
rdtwo wrote: post #155

I think the next big theme right now is energy. From generation to storage to consumption were going to rethink how we deal with it. Right now our pricing model is broken due to government regulation but I think the coming energy crisis will push utilities to use spot rate metering like Texas has already started in places. Spot rate metering will finally make iot (formally known as the internet of shit) actually make…

I think I speak for a lot of people when I say the last thing I want is for my local power grid to become a low regulation real time market. We've seen the flaws of the Texas approach, and doubling down on it with a sprinkling of IOT tech on top is not gonna go anywhere good.

I agree that it’s going to be painful. But it’s going to be painful either way because power plants take too long to build and we have an energy crunch now. We need to get power from somewhere and the only immediate solution is to level load the grid more efficiently. I do not think this is something that will make our lives better but it will make more efficient use of our existing power infrastructure and its something we will all have to deal with

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#293

Post by irthomasthomas »

throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

The quantity of CO2 needing to be dumped in to the atmosphere to manufacture new cars to meet this is going to be astronomical. The majority of the CO2 cost of a car is in the manufacturing. I don't understand why they are doing this?

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#294

Post by personjerry »

One thing I've been thinking about is, how do you scale tourism?

Edit for clarification:

For example, the destruction of local environment is a known problem for places such as Machu Picchu and Venice, to the point where you now need to reserve and pay for a visit to the city of Venice [0]

As population gets higher more and more people want to visit the top destinations, and when a new one gets "found" it gets flooded (see Dubrovnik after Game of Thrones hype)

Because of physical limitations these experiences don't scale - there's a finite number of destinations in the world and an ever-growing population.

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/01/world/europe/venice-touri...

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#295

Post by moooo99 »

elmomle wrote: post #224
blinkingled wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's amazing to me how little talk there is about reduce and recycle - with remote work, better city and public transport planning etc if we could completely eliminate the use of cars for the vast majority of the populace we would not need to mine more for batteries, wonder where and how our electricity is going to come from and how we are going to offset carbon. We literally have no vision for optimization, we just…

The problem is that it's a classic large-scale prisoner's dilemma. Living in a walking city is nicer than living in a driving city. But living in a walking city with a car is even nicer! The only way to fix it is by passing taxes or other restrictive legislation, which has so far been extremely difficult because most voters choose "let's make things a bit easier for you today" over "we should all sacrifice now to mak…

> But living in a walking city with a car is even nicer!

Not necessarily, because it is significantly more expensive (depending on how you implement it). But one way to get people off their cars and onto public transport could be make people pay for their cars. Nowadays, people do pay quite a lot for their cars (insurance, registration fees, vehicle tax, etc), but the payments pale in comparison to the overall costs of having cars as a primary mean of mobility. Putting that cost burden onto the people that produce those costs would lead to many people reconsidering their need for a car.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#297

Post by joshmarlow »

ChadNauseam wrote: post #247

Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…

> If the process is expensive, it will only be available to rich people.

I have trouble believing it will remain expensive unless there is a cultural taboo against it.

In general, once proven out, there should be pretty high demand for the tech - and that provides a lot of opportunity for profit for whomever can get the costs down.

What looks like a bigger blocker to me - AFAIK, IVF is really harsh on the body isn't it? Lots of hormones to force out a lot of eggs. That looks like the real adoption bottleneck to me.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#298

Post by JshWright »

bilsbie wrote: post #162
abetusk wrote: post #28

Energy? I feel like it's been talked about a lot but maybe not? Solar panels are dropping in cost at an exponential rate [0]. As of this writing, consumer "new" panels are $0.75/W and used are at around $0.30/W right now (I won't give a link as a Google search will do). Battery technology is also dropping at an exponential rate. I believe, with a little effort, one can purchase batteries at about $0.08/Wh. Taken toge…

> Taken together, one can purchase a 30KWh (daily) solar panel and battery storage system for about $4,200 I haven’t researched it but I feel like I’d have pay 20-40K for such a system. What gives? Is it all just labor and regulations? Why can’t we solve that?

$4,200 is _very_ optimistic for the panel/battery cost for a 30kWh system. The GP comment also conveniently excluded "labor and extra hardware/electronics". There's a lot more that goes into a solar power system (especially one that has to manage batteries) than just slapping the panels on the roof and dropping the batteries off in the garage. Inverters, chargers, grid integration equipment, etc.

I'm also not sure what you mean by "just" labor. You're talking about a critical system, that has the possibility of seriously injuring someone (including folks outside your house) or causing extensive property damage if not installed correctly. That seems like a thing where skilled (and fairly compensated) installers and some degree of regulation is very appropriate.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#299

Post by jasonwatkinspdx »

baobob wrote: post #176
saberdancer wrote: post #149

Russia will collapse.

I feel like this definitely needs to be expanded. What makes you think that? Their currency is stronger than before the war (despite internal fragility) They have the entire continent of Europe by the balls on oil/gas They've made an absolute killing in the energy sector this year due to the fear and scarcity they have created. They're making steady gains in their war in Ukraine They have the ear and economic heart o…

Re the Russian economy and the Ruble in particular I'd strongly suggest reading the recent Yale paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#300

Post by trgn »

irthomasthomas wrote: post #293
throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

The quantity of CO2 needing to be dumped in to the atmosphere to manufacture new cars to meet this is going to be astronomical. The majority of the CO2 cost of a car is in the manufacturing. I don't understand why they are doing this?

ICE cars pollute the local environment, which is worse imho than their contribution to global warming. ICE cars are noisy, stink, and have unhealthy exhaust. For those reasons alone, an electric car is better.
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