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Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

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Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#281

Not reading per se, but I've listened to Marketplace podcast [0] almost daily for years at this point, and I find it invaluable for economic news and interpretation -- especially now. Also recommend Marketplace's podcast Make Me Smart [1], which is an informal deep dive on a single subject. It's nominally a weekly podcast, but they're now releasing a 10-minute daily version. Finally, NPR's Planet Money [2] and their…

Honestly, I find Marketplace's obsession with politics annoying. IDK if they just have an easier time sourcing interviews from government officials because public radio or something, but it feels like even in times of non-distress they lean heavy on policy and lean on actual markets.

Look at the non-COVID Make Me Smart topics as an example:

- Housing policy - Corporate social responsibility - food policy to fight global poverty - the equal rights act - facebook and US elections - regulating the internet with section 230 - an interview with a senior politico editor about the school-skills-jobs pipeline - why private equity needs to be regulated

That said, I do appreciate the Marketplace interviews with 'regular small business owners' Marketplace has been doing lately. Ranchers, Mississippi freighters, factory operators, etc.

In terms of other podcasts, Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast[1] is a nice long form podcast with subject matter experts. Their guests also likely have a political agenda, but you at least get exposed to the inner workings of a market. A recent pair of podcasts provides a good example: a few months ago they talked with a guest about an unusual feature of Korean retail banking, the structured note. They provide investors--primarily retirees--a fixed 7.8 percent return if the market doesn't drop by a huge margin. Otherwise, investors are stuck with the return of the underlying benchmark (which is down a huge margin). Well, last month exactly that exact tail risk scenario triggered, and they brought the guest back on to further discuss how this compares with previous bank crisis episodes.

[1]: https://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts/odd_lots

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#282
post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's be a bit more specific here before people get the wrong idea. Economics doesn't work for predicting the stock market. Other than that, it works just fine. The principals of supply and demand and huge host of other issues are just fine and work great. It just doesn't translate to predicting equities.

It doesn't translate to predicting anything, stock market included. Economics is an art, not a science. Society is the petri dish on whch experiments are carried out, and even in the smallest experiments, you can't really isolate environmental variables like you can in say in a physics experiment. Every economic theory is prefaced with "all other things remaining equal", which should invalidate them right then and th…

> You can't really isolate environmental variables like you can in say in a physics experiment.

Astrophysics is kind of in the same boat. You can't really set up a proper test and control - you're forced to do what you can with the datasets that are available.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Economists do not claim to know the economy, much less to the point of becoming rich. They are far more likely to insist that nobody can know such thing. You must be thinking of somebody else.

Hardly. Economists may believe in the idea, for example, that you can't time the market, but I have yet to meet an economist who doesn't have very strong ideas about the types of policies or interventions that are good for bad for the economy, and again it often feels like you get 10 economists in a room and you get 10 different diverging opinions.

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#284
Perry Mehrling - The Money View. He has a course on coursera [1]. It’s the best explanation I’ve seen of how the economy works. It’s a bank centric view and focuses on balance sheets for analysis. Highly recommend it.

[1] https://www.coursera.org/lecture/money-banking/a-money-view-...

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#285
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please read carefully. The Agnelli family owns 43.4%, members of the Rothschild family own 21%, other big corporate/rich families interests own the rest. Lots of "Sirs", "Ladies" and "Baronesses" on the board of directors, as you can see below. From the Wikipedia page: Pearson PLC held a 50% shareholding via The Financial Times Limited until August 2015; at that time Pearson sold their share in the Economist. The Agn…

Isn't your thesis that this situation changed in 2015? I don't know for sure, but I always assumed the Economist has always been run by a bunch of Sirs and Ladies... I have read and quite liked the magazine for a couple decades and they have seemed consistently elitist, pro-market, and globalist during that time. It is something I like, that they have a strong identifiable editorial perspective, unlike newspapers tha…

Whether it is the Sirs/Ladies, or the Elkanns or the Rothschilds, they are interested in continuing the current status quo, enriching the 1% that they belong to, at the cost of everyone else.

The Economist used to be pro-small-business free market. At some point they started justifying outsourcing as "free trade", which benefited big companies like Apple, etc. and stagnated or starved small businesses (and the productivity/innovation that comes from it), not to mention labor providers (even highly educated ones, such as software engineers :-))

This has proven to be quite bad for the US and Europe (except the 1%, whose interests The Economist represents through ownership) - and it may get even worse when money-printing will stop working at some point.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#286
I have been reading A Farewell to Alms - Brief History of Economics [1]. Largely answers questions around why Industrial revolution happened when it did despite all the institutions existing well before that.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Farewell-Alms-Economic-History-Prince...

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#287
post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't translate to predicting anything, stock market included. Economics is an art, not a science. Society is the petri dish on whch experiments are carried out, and even in the smallest experiments, you can't really isolate environmental variables like you can in say in a physics experiment. Every economic theory is prefaced with "all other things remaining equal", which should invalidate them right then and th…

> You can't really isolate environmental variables like you can in say in a physics experiment. Astrophysics is kind of in the same boat. You can't really set up a proper test and control - you're forced to do what you can with the datasets that are available.

This confounds multiple factors.

As W. Brian Arthur has observed, vrtually all of economics ultimately boils down to questions of policy. There is effectively no theoretical (as opposed to policy-oriented) economics, let alone a truly experimental sort. This applies not just to orthodoxy, but many heterodoxies as well.

The notion that science is of necessity experimental is fundamentally false. Experiments are useful, but the core of science is that it is observational, you might call it experiential, with hypotheses and observational tests (of which experiments are one subclass) being used to form theories and models.

The scope of, say, experimental cosmology, meterology, geology, paleontology, evolutionary biology, and ecology are ... fairly small. Though not entirely nonexistent. Famous proofs, or validations, of Einsteins theory of general relativity were observational, based on star positions during solar eclipses and of Mercury's orbit. Neither of which lend themselves readily to laboratory experiments.

Similarly, simulations are a powerful tool in many disciplines.

Geology is an interesting case on several counts.

It's among the oldest of the natural sciences, dating back thousands of years, to at least ancient Greece (Theophrastus, 372–287 BCE, Peri Lithon). It has been almost entirely observational, rather than experimental. As recently as the late 18th century, the Earth was thoght to be unknowably old (James Hutton, I believe), and through the 20th, informed and scientific views differed by orders of magnitude. It wasn't until the 1st decade of the 20th century that early radiometric dating suggested even approximately the right range. The actual. value, plus or minus 1%, wasn't determined until the 1950s. And the central organising principle of a study dating back 2,400 years wasn't. finally accepted until 1965, having been proposed in modern form in 1912. That is, it's only 55 of 2,200+ years that geologists have formally had the foggiest notion of how their study actually works.

And even. still, in one major application, earthquake prediction, the field remains conspicuously incapable, at least where timing is concerned. Criminally so according to Italian courts: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/italian-scientist...

We've an exceptionally good idea of where earth movements are likely to occur, what landforms are especially vulnerable, and what construction methods most resilient. But precise timing eludes us -- at human scales events are effectively random.

Economics prides itself on its reliance on maths, dating to Alfred Marshall, to which I can only commend this Reddit thread:

https://old.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/bevb7u/why_is...

Economics, my own course of academic study, remains mired in wishful thinking, false models, self-serving theory, and rejection and suppression of well-grounded alternative or additional concepts. It specifically rejects thermodynamics (Georgescu-Roegen, Daly, Ayres, Hall, Keen, and others), evolution (Veblen), complexity (Arthur and others), and limits (John Stuart Mill, William Stanley Jevons, Kenneth Boulding, Meadows et al, and others). Even where at leaast some elements of the mainstream have resumed rational behaviour, policy and public discourse frequently have not.

Epistemic progress and ideology are all but incompatible. If not entirely. Until economics entirely rejects ideology it will not progress. Given its foundations in moral philosophy and the inherent self-serving dynamics of wealth -- "Wealth, as Mr Hobbes says is power" notes Smith. in one of the shortest and clearest sentences of Wealth of Nations, a book generally given to neither -- this seems a formidable challenge.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#290
post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you aware of the stock market, housing market, bond market, precious metals? Asset price inflation absolutely is happening. The FED up until now was able to keep the CPI increases fairly low even though they were creating trillions of dollars, because the money was locked into assets. This has had a severe effect on anyone in the market for these assets that have risen.

How do the assets lock up money? The stock market, no matter how enormous it's market cap, doesn't lock up any money. When I pay through the nose for Tesla stock, the other fellow then has some money that he either has to spend or park somewhere.

I forgot to mention that China sells us consumer goods at a very low price, keeping CPI down. With the dollars we give them for their goods they purchase US companies, bonds, and real estate. This pushes up prices of the assets they purchase. If the Chinese did not devalue their currency, americans would not be able to afford their products and we would see a rise in the CPI.
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