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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
281–290 of 1001 posts
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#282Stripe will become a FAANG, or at least gain significant world relevance. Bio-hacking will become mainstream, causing significant backlash and become a sensitive, polarised topic. Startup equity / VC funding will change significantly, making it more fair & appealing for early employees.
What is bio-hacking vs doing pro-athlete level nutrition, drugs and fitness?
CRISPR / designer babies
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#2831. Merging of mobile/desktop OS (i.e. iOS and MacOS becoming one and the same). 2. A Microsoft first-party Android device is launched, following a similar attack strategy they are currently starting with Edge on Chromium: fork, improve, destroy. 3. ARM takes over... actually, a more bold prediction: x86-64 remains king, and ARM is not able to conquer beyond the mobile market, despite present-day feelers. 4. Self driv…
> Netflix purchases a small theater chain that shows its own films for free to subscribers, with excellent snacks for purchase. (or has this already happened?)
Not yet but Netflix recently bought and reopened New York City’s iconic Paris Theater (ostensibly to host limited showings of Netflix Original films so they're eligible for Academy Awards). They’re also interested in purchasing the Egyptian Theater in Hollywood.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/25/20982216/netflix-paris-t...
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#284Tech: * Rdbms will still be then backbone of most internet facing applications. * Java will still be around. So will COBOL. * Python v4 will be under development. * There will be only 3 cloud providers of any relevance (AWS, GCP, Azure).
Social:
* There will be more fission plants at the end of the decade than the beginning (worldwide) but fewer in the USA.
* The USA will still be the largest economy.
* There will be an artificial, scalable process for removing co2 from the atmosphere.
* There will be a war over Persian gulf oil, but the USA will be only peripherally involved.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#2851. As a result of worsening urban/rural political divide, the inhabitants of cities will start to believe they have more in common with fellow urbanites from different nations than with ruralites from their own nation. Major cities will begin to engage in diplomacy with each other directly and, probing the limits of their sovereignty, engage in informal treaties and lightweight alliances (of an economic and social so…
I strongly disagree with #2, and here is why.
First, I remember this exact same argument during the post .com collapse circa 2001/2002: "Everything is getting offshored to India, and all good developer salaries with it!" Software developer salaries have only accelerated since that time.
Second, I think that in 2020 the following things will still be true about software that are true today, and are a major reason for such high salaries:
1. Software productivity will still be essentially un-measurable: https://martinfowler.com/bliki/CannotMeasureProductivity.htm....
2. Despite #1, there will still be an order of magnitude or more difference between the best and average programmers.
3. The "winner take all" nature of markets will only increase.
If #1, #2 and #3 remain true, it means that capital will still be willing to make large bets to try to be on the "winning horse" because the returns will be so outsized, which means many businesses will be willing to overpay for programmers because everyone wants the best programmers but it will still be difficult to know exactly who those "best" programmers are.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#286- At least one country will declare animals "Non Human Persons" and outlaw non plant-based foods.
- Cryptocurrency will join other tech fads in the history books.
- Big corps (Apple/MS/Disney) will have their own political representation and will try to amend the constitution in their favor.
- More and better electric cars, still no L5 autonomy in sight.
- Japan will declare a population emergency and start a national project to develop artificial Japanese babies through cloning.
- The US will outlaw firearms completely after a major right wing revolt that will cause thousands of casualties, possibly following Trump losing and calling for an uprising.
- A safe alternative to smoking/vaping is introduced by one of the fastest growing startups in history.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#287Climate change has another decade of inaction by the USA.
Unification of Ireland.
Scotland will not leave the UK.
South East Asian countries will follow China's lead imposing dictatorial policies / invasion of their citizens privacy in the name of national security.
It'll be the year of Linux on the desktop, 10 years in a row
No Half Live 3 release.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#288Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…
I disagree strongly on number 6. Offliners would be as popular as people who still carry flip phones and lecture you about it. You can’t become mainstream without some kind of media. Vegans talk about veganism all the time on social media. That’s why everyone knows about it.
There’s power in negative space. People will maintain meatspace connections that won’t be mirrored online, which will create a sense of mystique and intrigue. People who aren’t immediately connected to off lines IRL will seek them out in a kind of pilgrimage.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#289Large (42”+), shared touch-enabled displays will become ubiquitous. Home televisions, conference room displays, and open-air marketing will become deeply interactive.
More than 50% of American homes will have voice controlled home automation in one or more rooms.
Unsheltered homeless populations recede to pre-2014 levels by 2023.
Javascript continues to dominate web development.
Renters rights and associated concerns become a main issue for the American left.
Scotland leaves the UK.
Grocery delivery and picking services account for the majority of groceries sold, the number of traditional supermarkets recede by 30%.
“Showroom shopping” (like Tesla) occupies 25% of street level retail.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#290Ooooooh I wanna add mine!
1. [WILL BET $100 with one person] Energy management (e.g. battery research, energy infrastructure development) becomes a far bigger concern. The forcing functions of high population, increased well-being, and a world that cannot sustain that well-being with current techniques will mean new types of energy reserves will need to be found, tapped, and converted into material wealth. Whatever country develops a strategic advantage in this field will win the 21st century, just as the U.S. won the 20th century through the Texas oil boom (with a little help from 2 world wars).
2. [LIKELY] A harder world will mean the increased rise and stay of authoritarianism and totalitarianism despite attempts to check it. The 1990s, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of the U.S. as the sole hyperpower was an abnormal state, and the 2020s will see the world finishing a decades-long readjustment to a truly multilateral world, with independent military pacts and spheres of influence by 2030.
3. [LIKELY] The United States' brightest days will still be ahead of it. The U.S. dollar will remain the world's reserve currency, and the U.S. market will still be the world's largest, unified, open commercial market, with a more-or-less natural balance of producers and consumers. There may be a recession or even depression, increased political polarization, and maybe even a major war between great powers, but tight federal policing over states, the lack of any militarily strong neighbors, resource availability, strong communications, and simple inertia will mean no serious discussion of systemic weaknesses on the scale of decolonization or secession like those held in the U.K.
4. [STRETCH, and I'll bet $50 with one person] The first JavaScript hardware stack will become commercially available. JavaScript becomes the new x86. Due to Moore's Law flatlining, as well as increased cloud dominance and serious work done behind a protocol, more and more companies will want JavaScript portability with high performance. The first company to embrace this wretched reality and deliver a JavaScript hardware stack that performs as well as a Chromebook may find demand to be higher than expected.
5. [LIKELY] Industrial IoT becomes synonymous with big data. Blob storage tasks like streaming media will be too fractured with proprietary technology to build a tooling ecosystem to get shared gains, and other tech like VR will still need to create the market, and sell to skeptical consumers with steadily decreasing median purchasing power. Enterprise remains a solid market, and more devices will get wired in the name of convenience over security and more analytics will be required out of every connected device.
6. [LIKELY] The Linux desktop finally becomes a thing. Please.
7. [HOPEFULLY] I'll be married to somebody I love and have kids :)