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Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

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Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#261
post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York and winner of the Nobel in Economic Sciences Paul Krugman would disagree with you. He's full of economic pronouncements going as far as when markets are going to crash (immediately) and their specific cause (Trump elected). You can make the case that as a columnist, he's encouraged to make predictions but most Keynesians be…

Krugman walked that back and apologized and reflected on the fact that he to is human and liable to let his emotions get a hold of him.

Does the point not stand though?

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#262
post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the Keynesian view where you can move a lever (cause) and measure the changes (effect). Thats not Keynesian economics at all! Or rather it's a view that people from schools of thought completely opposite to Keynesian also believe. Does anyone not think this? Eg, Quantitative Easing: does anyone (Keynesian or not) think it does nothing?

Everything does something but it's hard->impossible to directly map cause to effect. The problem is there are numerous causes and effects all playing out at once and they all interact. Or to put it another way: it's the three-body problem extended to millions->billions of bodies which use psychology+perception as the main force instead of gravity.

also there Nth order effects which are confounding subsequent moves. This is why any idea that a certain party of president leads to good/bad economies is nearly impossible to tell, it could just be a lagging indicator from previous one(s)

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#263
post #19

The only school that has any explanation for this is the Austrian School of Economics. Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened. Mises and Hayek wrote big and hard to read books about it, but two that explain this to the layman are "Meltdown" b…

The Austrian School seems to have been wrong about the last 15 years' money printing causing inflation. In particular, the general Austrian school would have predicted a lot more inflation by now. The prediction on this has fared so poorly that the last 15 years has given rise to a school nearly diametrically opposite to the Austrian school: modern monetary theory. (My understanding of the Austrian response to this i…

Krugman's going to supply your steelman? Sorry, no. Krugman has a Nobel, but when he writes (at least for the last decade or two), he does so primarily as a propagandist, and secondarily (if at all) as an economist.

There's plenty of actual mainstream economists that can give you steelman responses to Austrian Economics. Don't go get them from Krugman. You won't get good steel from him; it will have too much straw in it.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#264
post #35

Thomas Sowell - he has many great books about economical principles - "Basic Economics" itself is extremely educational, and is regularly updated with examples of recent History.

Haven't read his econ book, but really loved Cosmic Justice. The guy is brilliant.

Beyond that, if you want something kind of fringe but real time, ZeroHedge is interesting. Lots of chaff, but some of the wheat is insightful.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like what I heard Tyler Cowen say a long time ago: a degree in economics is a great way to learn about a lot of ideas that sound good but don't work. (I'm paraphrasing, of course) I thought his point was great. There's some well-trodden ground in economics. If you learn nothing more but where the alligators are, you're probably going to do a lot better on that trip through the swamp you plan on taking. If nothing e…

Let's be a bit more specific here before people get the wrong idea. Economics doesn't work for predicting the stock market. Other than that, it works just fine. The principals of supply and demand and huge host of other issues are just fine and work great. It just doesn't translate to predicting equities.

> The principals of supply and demand and huge host of other issues are just fine and work great.

The principals of supply and demand are vague and flexible enough to be completely devoid of meaning.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe this sentiment is mostly a symptom of the extreme prevalence of charlatans who use economics as a marketing tool rather than a social science. Economics is really just accounting, statistics and psychology. But mostly accounting. I think people get really worked up about the “unknowable” parts and fail to see that accounting can open up tremendous insights if we only take the time to understand it well. If…

After reading quite a lot about economic policies it sounds a lot like some sort of engineering - you have some levers/gadgets that you can use, but you have to understand the consequences of each of them and how the interact with the "real world" of companies and people participating in the economy. Sure, people being certain about what's going to happen and when is akin to snake oil, but using good insight and tool…

That’s why I say it’s mostly accounting—you have to convert reality into quantities before you can engineer it, and accounting is the set of rules for measuring and manipulating those quantities. The difficulty lies in the fact that unlike physics, where units are essentially hard-coded into the fabric of reality, the unit in accounting is money which is a social construct.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#267
post #19

The only school that has any explanation for this is the Austrian School of Economics. Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened. Mises and Hayek wrote big and hard to read books about it, but two that explain this to the layman are "Meltdown" b…

"The only school that has any explanation for this is the Austrian School of Economics. Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened."

Mises is a big joke. Never made it past assistant professor. Never worked a day of his live in private enterprise. His theories describe barter economies in the middle ages; alas this quite well. Due to his lack of understanding of the principal nature of capitalism he offer no insights into economics.

"Credit expansion can bring about a temporary boom. But such a fictitious prosperity must end in a general depression of trade, a slump."

Ludwig von Mises

Von an outstanding an deep insight, not. While not explicit mentioning it, he suggests that this is a bad thing. Trick question: What kind of boom does not bring a credit expansion with it? His quote is just a tautology and offers no insight. Yes, the boom/bust cycle is an inherent feature of capitalism.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#268
Right now I am reading The Black Death in Egypt and England: a comparative study by Stuart Borsch. It compares the macroeconomic effects of the black death in England in Egypt. The relative power of the aristocracy to control or fail to control the supply and price of labor not only affected wages in the short term but agricultural productivity and eventually the foundation for industrialization and entrepreneurship.

I am only a third of the way through, but it so far seems thoroughly researched, without the dodgy understanding of economics in many (most?) historical nonfiction books. The only potential problem is that I want to believe that the dystopian sounding world ruled by mamluks was an economic disaster waiting to happen, so I am wary of my reading being overly credulous. It could be that irrigation dependent agriculture was more brittle infrastructure, but I haven't yet had time to finish or digest the book yet.

From the introduction

England:

> In spite of the disputes over many significant issues, scholars agree about certain aspects of the outcome in Western Europe, particularly northwestern Europe. In many areas, urban and rural wages rose, land rents declined, grain prices dropped, agricultural output became more diversified, and unemployment levels decreased. Furthermore, the percentage decrease of agrarian and total output was less than that of the population, and per capita incomes rose. Overall economic recovery was largely completed by the year 1500. Landholding systems were transformed, and the manorial system, which was on the wane in some areas, collapsed in many parts of Western Europe, and was replaced by tenant farming or small peasant landholdings. Where these conclusions are accepted, they are often accepted as an axiomatic response to the relative scarcity of labor and the abundance of land that accompanied depopulation. The concessions that landlords made to peasants also seem to be an obvious consequence of the relative scarcity of rural labor.

Egypt:

> Wages dropped precipitously, land rents increased, grain prices rose, agricultural output became less diversified, and unemployment levels increased. The percentage decrease in agrarian and total output was greater than that of the population, and per capita incomes plummeted. The landholding system did not undergo a radical transformation, and the aristocracy was able to successfully contest the demands of scarce rural labor. Furthermore, economic recovery was nowhere in sight by 1500; the agrarian system lay in ruins, and agricultural output had declined by approximately sixty-eight percent.

[1] https://smile.amazon.com/Black-Death-Egypt-England-Comparati...

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#269

"All" you have to do is watch "How the economic machine works (in 30 minutes)" by Ray Dalio: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0 Read his insights and watch his interviews. That's a good basic start. Everything more then that: Nobody really knows. I have read countless of books, but one thing you have to know: It is a market - period. Something has value just because another person wants to buy it (at a given…

I got about halfway through Principles when it came out and eventually gave up on it (had newborn twins at the time).

Was having a slow morning here so your comment led me on an hour and a half of checking out that video and some of his other content.

His videos seem a lot more approachable than the book.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's be a bit more specific here before people get the wrong idea. Economics doesn't work for predicting the stock market. Other than that, it works just fine. The principals of supply and demand and huge host of other issues are just fine and work great. It just doesn't translate to predicting equities.

> The principals of supply and demand and huge host of other issues are just fine and work great. The principals of supply and demand are vague and flexible enough to be completely devoid of meaning.

Respectfully, demand and supply are colloquial terms identifying two sides in an exchange.
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