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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

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Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#251

Post by colinmhayes »

ChadNauseam wrote: post #247

Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…

Rich people already have children that are more attractive than average. Being attractive is the biggest signal for generational wealth which reinforces the need for trophy spouses which reinforces the signal and so on.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#252

Post by ikurei »

snidane wrote: post #134
nokya wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am under the impression that instead of preparing for climate immigration, EU citizens are actually slowly but surely mutually brainwashing themselves into increasing hate towards immigrants as a whole. From what I read and understood about climate change, a tsunami of immigrants from southern hemisphere countries towards northern hemisphere countries is to be expected. I would rather have my elected ones work on a…

Europeans would rather go Japan - ie. keep their national identity and downsize, than America - healthy demographics, but constant cultural clashes and crime waves.

Do you think then that those crime waves in America are mainly caused by immigration, or by racial/cultural diversity? Care to elaborate?

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#253

Post by CabSauce »

maverick74 wrote: post #237
throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

What amazes me is how little we talk about hydrogen (H2) fuel cell vehicles. Because, unless we get a tremendous breakthrough in the next 5 years, electric battery vehicles will be a very big pain. -Batteries are terribly expensive (and prices are not going down as fast as expected) -Batteries degrade too fast -Batteries take too long to charge -Electricity prices are already going up terribly fast to take advantage…

I'm not particularly knowledgeable, but my impression is that hydrogen might work for specific applications, but we don't have a very efficient of generating it. It still takes substantially more energy than if we just store the energy in batteries.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#254

Post by collyw »

gmuslera wrote: post #109

If the next big things doesn't include how we generate and use energy, probably the really big next thing may be runaway climate change.

how can people actually believe this pseudoscience. What models have been accurate for a number of year? The IPCC one just averages others, so that is cheating.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#255

Post by aaronsimpson »

JasserInicide wrote: post #189
mikewarot wrote: post #94

Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for thos countries dependent on imported food or energy. It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them) Energy Blindness -- We'…

Deglobalization I mean, I think it'd be nice, but in the US our leaders are so fucking corrupt and owned by business interests that I don't see it happening until at least all the boomers/Gen Xers die off.

Is globalization really the result of corrupt leaders though, or a shift in corporate practice to accommodate the rising demands of consumers? It seems like no amount of corruption really matters as long as we're drinking lattes and eating avocado every day.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#256

Post by throwaway787544 »

Salgat wrote: post #241
throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

Are you purposely forgetting the billions in state and federal charger subsidies, and the billions in residential solar subsidies being paid out? Total US energy consumption right now is at the same level it was in 2007.

Many companies choose not to take subsidies/grants due to the restrictions they come with. Many areas of the country also have lobbyists preventing things like selling excess capacity back to the grid. The subsidies will also lower over time; the govt isn't going to pay people to use solar in 2040.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#257

Post by dont__panic »

ChadNauseam wrote: post #247

Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…

[Gattaca](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0119177/) is about the long term consequences of this exact technology for society.

In particular, the consequences for the children born naturally who don't benefit from this tech. They don't get any say in the decision, but end up heavily penalized, barred from certain jobs for "safety" reasons, aren't desirable partners... an underclass of society.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#258

Post by colinmhayes »

maverick74 wrote: post #237
throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

What amazes me is how little we talk about hydrogen (H2) fuel cell vehicles. Because, unless we get a tremendous breakthrough in the next 5 years, electric battery vehicles will be a very big pain. -Batteries are terribly expensive (and prices are not going down as fast as expected) -Batteries degrade too fast -Batteries take too long to charge -Electricity prices are already going up terribly fast to take advantage…

Big hydrogen subsidies in the climate bill that just passed the senate. Remains to be seen if it’ll build hype.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#259

Post by xpe »

collyw wrote: post #234
CalRobert wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is one of the reasons we moved from California to Ireland. People thought it was weird in 2013. Less so now.

They were telling us Manhattan would be underwater by now 20 years ago.

Please state your exact point.

One narrow interpretation is that one particular study that you did not cite got it wrong.

One broad interpretation is that we should not pay attention or give credence to the good faith estimates offered at the time.

I get tired of snarky one-liners that don't say what they mean. They do not promote useful discussion. My comment here would not be necessary if you took a few minutes to elaborate about what you meant.

Lastly: Estimates change. No model is perfect but some are useful.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#260

Post by collyw »

smitty1e wrote: post #108

Rebellion against the Surveillance Capitalism/State. We understand that granular metrics are needful for tuning an information system. Treating a society like an information system is totalitarian. Over time, the percentage of society rejecting totalitarianism will tend toward 100%

I hope so, but the last two and a half years hasn't given me much reason to believe it will happen. Most people I know willingly signed up for a vaccine based social credit system without much question.
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