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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#251

Post by ericb »

* VR finally takes off for real, creating the next app store style payday as killer apps come online.

* A VR content studio becomes a billion dollar business

* At the end of the 2020's, China hits a demographic wall it can't easily recover from.

* The ICE collapse begins in earnest in the latter half of 2020's.

* Bitcoin's value will crater as the untethering happens (See NY AG lawsuit), leading to a crypto winter

* Google has entered "Day 2" and will have a major competitor in the next 10 years. Day 2 can be seen by the anti-consumer wall of paid results it has, just like the stodgy competitors it beat 10 years ago had. Also, founders left.

* SPA's will be considered an anti pattern

* Massive recession hits

* Inflation

* Tesla becomes Amazon sized due to the intersection of falling battery prices, solar prices, and the tipping point for ICE practicality

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#254

Post by suyash »

wyxuan wrote: post #186

Here are mine: - Smartphones become a relic of the past, and are replaced by wearables - Onboard processing becomes non existent, and is replaced by low latency decentralized networks (a little like stadia) - Changes in climate ensure that the way we live our lives, and living in bunkers becomes popular - privacy doesn't matter as much as it did before - the US becomes displaced by China as the hegemon, but the desig…

Disagree on the smartphone one, they will actually be the main personal gadget replacing even laptops and complemented by other types of wearables.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#256

Post by cjbprime »

amelius wrote: post #177
air7 wrote: post #132

Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…

> 9. Global carbon emissions are not reduced, mostly because of lack of initiative by China and 3rd world countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China

This doesn't look positive:

> However, few plants have commenced construction since 2015, and it is now unlikely that this target will be met.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#257

Post by mv4 »

1. some cloud services (storage, delivery/CDN) are completely free.

2. AWS has won the cloud game, but had to dramatically simplify its offerings.

3. there are no truck drivers in the US.

4. VR is officially dead, like 3D TV now.

5. BestBuy is out of business.

6. AI assistants are now 100% autonomous and do not publish your data to the cloud.

7. IBM no longer mentions Watson and is now focused on quantum computing.

8. quantum computing is still not readily available, accessible, or practical.

9. there have been several major hacks where people's genetic data been stolen, and it's now being used against them.

10. major consolidation in online video services (Netflix, Disney+, Hulu, etc)

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#258

Post by mooreds »

Tech:

* Rdbms will still be then backbone of most internet facing applications.

* Java will still be around. So will COBOL.

* Python v4 will be under development.

* There will be only 3 cloud providers of any relevance (AWS, GCP, Azure).

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#259

Post by chubot »

chubot wrote: post #165

From my recent comment [1]: - VIDEO becomes what people thought VR/AR would be. Reality becomes mediated through video, not 3D graphics. This is analogous to all the technical components for social networks being there in 1993 (BBSes, Prodigy, CompuServe, AOL, etc.), but Facebook didn't exist until 2004. And in 2010 people and businesses still needed websites -- the web was still growing like crazy 20 years later. Yo…

Another prediction: there will be a swing back toward dynamic languages, or at least toward extremely fast PHP-like, R-like, shell-like iteration.

The language will either be dynamically typed or have an ultra fast (optional?) type checker. Or maybe 2 execution modes.

The constraints of human cognition change very slowly, and iterative feedback will be as valuable in 2030 as it ever was.

Right now there is a natural swing toward statically typed languages because so many huge codebases were built in dynamic languages (Wikipedia, YouTube, etc.), and people are understandably having trouble maintaining them. And the user base of web services has increased by an order of magnitude in the last decade, while Moore's law has stalled, so compiling to machine code with static types makes a lot of sense.

But in 2030 people will still want to iterate quickly on their code.

note: Maybe parallel / incremental typechecking will become commonplace. Fast feedback is incompatible with the status quo of single-threaded type checkers because type checking is a "global" algorithm, it scales non-linearly, and codebases are growing.

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