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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#241

Post by kgwgk »

bonzini wrote: post #140
vanniv wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The average age of a fatal case is still north on 80 years. The UK plan is effectively to get as many people as possible that are young, and thus at a super low risk of needing hospitalization to get infected, so that they can recover and then be immune, thus making it hard for the virus to sweep through again. If 30% or more of the population were immune, it would be much harder to get a new outbreak started. With a…

> The UK plan is effectively to get as many people as possible that are young, and thus at a super low risk of needing hospitalization to get infected The risk is already not that low at 55-65. These are people that are working and thus very likely to catch it.

51% of patients requiring intensive care in Italy are in the 50-70 range. 12% are younger than 50.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#242

Post by arcticbull »

tomp wrote: post #237
arcticbull wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I'm 30, have no contact with folks over 65, have no co-morbid conditions and so I have no reason to keep away from folks. I'm at zero risk. In fact if I get it now and develop an immunity, all the better. I have to assume the same is true of the folks at the pub -- otherwise it's them who are being irresponsible, not me.

I think this as well. The only problem I learned about, is that there seems to be a chance of long-term respiratory damage (e.g. 20% lower lung capacity), which is as of now unlikely to be properly tracked / reported, but likely higher than the reported number of "critical" or "death" outcomes (which indeed are tiny in < 40s)

This is true of other some, but not all other coronaviridae so I suppose it's not a surprise but I also haven't heard any data on this.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#243

Post by LifeLiverTransp »

patrec wrote: post #201
pedro1976 wrote: post #39

The other countries are going for herd immunity too. The goal of all lock-downs and red zones is just to prevent the health system from collapsing.

Merkel apparently is trying to (or tried to), but was more coy about it. But none of the technocratic Asian governments seem to.

Because herd immunity assumes a way more behaviour and process control then you would have- even in a borg like society.

Its gerontocide, nothing more, nothing less - by incompetent/corrupt governments which will be swept away by this anyway. I greatly fear for my parents, elderly coworkers and those professors at my university.

A whole generation has grown up, incapable of proper reacting to catastrophes. What we see here, is basically appeasement to a biologic disaster, in hope of saving a ailing economy.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#244

Post by tomp »

hellofunk wrote: post #222
arcticbull wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I'm 30, have no contact with folks over 65, have no co-morbid conditions and so I have no reason to keep away from folks. I'm at zero risk. In fact if I get it now and develop an immunity, all the better. I have to assume the same is true of the folks at the pub -- otherwise it's them who are being irresponsible, not me.

I’ve seen this attitude quite a lot among younger people lately, it’s just super irresponsible and arrogant. In a situation like this, the responsibility must be shared, no one should consider themselves free from the responsibilities of stopping the spread this virus.

> In a situation like this, the responsibility must be shared

Why not in other situations though? The elites avoid taxes, Boomers have houses, banks are pumping up the asset bubble, while young people have student debt, can't buy a place to live (or even a car), have no assets and, if they're lucky and productive and high-earners, they "enjoy" 20% higher tax rate than owners of capital... Why exactly should anyone now act in a way that is detrimental to themselves, to save some other predators?

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#245

Post by arcticbull »

hellofunk wrote: post #222
arcticbull wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I'm 30, have no contact with folks over 65, have no co-morbid conditions and so I have no reason to keep away from folks. I'm at zero risk. In fact if I get it now and develop an immunity, all the better. I have to assume the same is true of the folks at the pub -- otherwise it's them who are being irresponsible, not me.

I’ve seen this attitude quite a lot among younger people lately, it’s just super irresponsible and arrogant. In a situation like this, the responsibility must be shared, no one should consider themselves free from the responsibilities of stopping the spread this virus.

Again, if you don't come into contact with the vulnerable (or anyone else who does) then you aren't putting anyone at risk and you are developing herd immunity which will in time likely end the virus.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#247

Post by RareSoft »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #165
mytailorisrich wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course the death toll in Wuhan/China has been relatively limited BECAUSE they took drastic measures. When people start to say "all this panic for that..." it means that the measures taken have worked, not that they were unnecessary.

Yup. The best case scenario is that restrictions are introduced, and they work so well that people complain that they were unnecessary. And remember folks, when it comes to exponential growth, the best time to act was yesterday.

The issue with that approach though is how do you effectively prevent reinfection of the region when all counter measures are suspended? Another carrier could reinfect the region again and all that previous work came to nothing.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#248

Post by simtel20 »

arcticbull wrote: post #158
aberoham wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

^^^ 2000% this, a large proportion can't change their ways, is not paying attention or simply doesn't care. It's shocking to still tonight walk past a packed pub on a Saturday night

Personally, I'm 30, have no contact with folks over 65, have no co-morbid conditions and so I have no reason to keep away from folks. I'm at zero risk. In fact if I get it now and develop an immunity, all the better. I have to assume the same is true of the folks at the pub -- otherwise it's them who are being irresponsible, not me.

You have a .2% mortality chance once you exhibit symptoms, right? That's much greater than no risk.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#249

Post by scythe »

prox wrote: post #218
knzhou wrote: post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

Also, the more time you win, the closer we get to a cure, vaccin or way to deal with it better.

I think the development of a vaccine in a few months is unlikely. I think however the identification of somewhat effective antivirals in a few months is probable. There are already two antiviral candidates in trials, which are simpler to run than vaccine trials: remdesivir and lopinavir+ritonavir. Also, "transmitted immunity" is being (re)developed:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/doctors-push-trea...

Antivirals won't stop the outbreak but they could save thousands of lives.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#250

Post by knzhou »

codeulike wrote: post #231
knzhou wrote: post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

But where is South Korea going with its strategy - are they going to keep doing that forever? And whats China's long term strategy? Wuhan is still locked down.

Wuhan had the great majority of cases in the entire world. The other provinces of China are more analogous to individual European countries. They locked down for a few weeks and have already come back up.

The long term strategies for Korea and China are the same: carefully identify new cases as they come in from outside, find their contacts, and isolate them as soon as possible. Temporarily lock down small regions on an individual basis if necessary. They've already been doing that with some new cases coming in from Italy.

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