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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#241

Post by TheKarateKid »

king_magic wrote: post #17
haunter wrote: post #5

IsaacL nailed it the best https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027093 And surprisingly the WoW one is the most off :D

I think the Microsoft prediction is even more off...

You have to remember that in 2010, Windows was still saving its reputation from Vista, Office was stale, and OneDrive didn’t exist. I don’t think Azure did, and if so it was more enterprise focused.

Nadella’s excellent pivoting of MS into a cloud and services focused company saved Microsoft from a stagnant or declining state.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#242

Post by TheKarateKid »

> * Google will experience change in management. From there, it will be downhill for them (at least for the rest of the decade). > * Surprisingly enough, Apple will still stay relevant even though Steve Jobs will have to leave his position due to health problems or something else.

Unfortunately, both of these were spot-on.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#243

Post by tiborsaas »

dnautics wrote: post #168
DevKoala wrote: post #40

> Network analysis and data mining will claim their first major political scalp. That'll be a watershed moment: the politics of information are going to start being the kind of core liberal issue that environmental issues currently are. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025703 This poster saw it.

> Network analysis and data mining will claim their first major political scalp. Who's scalp was it? I don't know any politician who has been taken to task over network analysis and data mining. Fore sure not Obama, whose staffers have quietly chortled that they did far worse than Cambridge Analytica ever did. Definitely not Trump, his numbers are as even as they haev ever been. Maybe Zuckerberg? But he's still CEO o…

The EU? David Cameron?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#244

Post by switch007 »

onefuncman wrote: post #225
dnautics wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we're not really quite there yet. Give another 10 years.

are you saying you have a child with a cell phone or tablet that has location services explicitly turned off ? i dunno, seems negligent to me

If you're tracking them, so are other people. (Though, as we all know, the real, proper privacy fix is not having a phone.)

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#245

Post by CoolGuySteve »

buzzkillington wrote: post #236
CoolGuySteve wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing that always really bugged me about the "the language will figure it out" philosophy is the complete disregard towards carbon footprint. Like yeah, you can make an interpreted dynamic language that's pretty neat, but you can also make something like go, swift, or Julia that jits and also captures 90% of that ease of use while significantly reducing your hosting costs/energy consumption. Going forward I think…

>My prediction is 10 years from now we'll look at interpreters and language VMs as relics from a simpler time when clockrates were always increasing and energy was cheap. Funnily enough someone said that exact same thing 10 years ago in that thread: >* Functional programming / dynamic languages will go out of fashion. People still using them will be judged as incompetent programmers by the people who moved on to the…

> Wrong then wrong now.

While pithy, that's not actually an interesting rebuttal.

You should elaborate, especially since "huge corporations", namely Apple, Google, and Mozilla (I guess?), are the ones pushing Swift, Go, and Rust, respectively.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#246

Post by random314 »

jedberg wrote: post #240
scarface74 wrote: post #81

What’s amazing is how little changed. - Apple and Google are still the only two mobile operating systems that matter and they are still in relatively the same position. iOS still controls the high end where the money is and Android has the market share but the OEMs are not making any money. - Facebook is more profitable and popular. - Amazon is still the number one online retailer, the Kindle is still by far the most…

> Netflix is still the dominant streaming platform. Netflix didn't start streaming until 2011. So it wasn't a streaming platform at all in 2010.

I was streaming from Netflix in 2007.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#247

Post by xmprt »

scarface74 wrote: post #192
npo9 wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, the large players stayed about the same in the last decade but we also found some new large players. The entire app ecosystems was in the earliest infancy in 2010. AWS was in its infancy. Slack wasn’t released.

Slack isn’t a “large player” they are nowhere near being profitable and are nowhere in the same league as Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google or Microsoft. The app ecosystem was growing like crazy in 2010. It was a year and a half into “there is an app for that”. Facebook had already pivoted to being big in mobile. The same can be said about Uber. Once the companies have a profitable and sustainable business model that d…

Regardless of profitability I think people are spending a lot more money on the internet today as they were 10 years ago. Subscription services, gig economy, and online retail have exploded in the last 10 years in a way that I don't think many people predicted.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#248

Post by unnouinceput »

scarface74 wrote: post #162
koboll wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting how none of the commenters envisioned Microsoft repositioning itself to adapt to technological and business trends. Everyone seems to have thought they would either fight them and lose, or contract to becoming an IBM-like consulting business.

Also, look how much things changed between 2000 and 2010 compared to 2010 to 2020. Facebook didn’t exist. Apple was “beleaguered”. Google was in its infancy and Yahoo was still dominant (before the crash) Microsoft was seen as unassailable. Amazon was mostly just an interesting book seller. They were just getting into CDs and hadn’t even made the deal with Toys R Us yet. Netflix was struggling against BlockBuster ren…

Also Kodak was still king of photography. On decline but still king in 2000. Who'd thought in just 5 to 10 years would've become a nobody?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#249

Post by xixixao »

asveikau wrote: post #184
king_magic wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the Microsoft prediction is even more off...

There was one comment in the thread about what Steve Jobs will do at the end of the decade. As a ghost I suppose? (Another says he will step down due to his health, which is closer.) My favorite is the joke that Zuck will buy Portugal.

Jobs was alive in 2010.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#250

Post by robomartin »

The first thing that comes to mind when I look back at these kinds of predictions is what is being said today (or during the last few years) about how AI is going to enslave and destroy humanity. The other one is how robotics (+ AI) will lay waste to human employment.

Some of the people championing doomsday scenarios ought to be humbled by the reality of not being able to predict almost anything ten years out.

Until someone invents a real crystal ball...

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