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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

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Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#231

Post by abetusk »

danielheath wrote: post #139
abetusk wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did qualify that this was not including labor and the other hardware and electronics needed for such a system. The (relatively) high cost is most likely because of labor and (in my opinion) inflated hardware costs of battery and solar panels. Labor is a massive expense and can't be discounted but one could imagine a solar panel "kit" that just includes the hardware that you can install yourself. One could also imag…

> Labor is a massive expense and can't be discounted but one could imagine a solar panel "kit" that just includes the hardware that you can install yourself. Installing high-wattage DC lines without any training at all is a great way to get house fires. Also, I haven't got whole lot of un-shaded roof space. I don't understand why commercial solar isn't even bigger than it is - are they waiting for prices to come down…

People do all sorts of home renovation with lighting, fuse boxes, outlets and the like. I don't want to dismiss safety concerns but at the same time this is well within scope of many home owners.

> I don't understand why commercial solar isn't even bigger than it is - are they waiting for prices to come down, or what?

I think this is a really good question and I don't know the answer to it.

My not-very-well-informed opinion is that there are a confluence of factors involved:

* Infrastructure buildout, especially in the USA where the infrastructure projects take massive amounts of effort and the population is spread out over a large area of land, takes a lot of time, effort and money.

* The prices involved aren't as lucrative yet as they could be. When the price per MWh is 1/10 that of coal, then we'll see huge rollout (in my opinion).

* Adoption/rollout is happening but, in some places at least, there's government capture preventing widespread rollout/adoption (Pennsylvania?)

* Aging infrastructure prevents large scale energy injection at random points.

To the last point, here in New York state, I've heard one has to pay to first do a survey if the site where you want to build a solar array can actually inject that much more energy into the grid (at a cost of $10k+ or more) and even then, you're limited by what the aging energy infrastructure can support, capping the amount of energy available.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#232

Post by jinto36 »

hattmall wrote: post #91
abetusk wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea being that consumer items will, more and more, be able to take DC directly instead of expecting AC. For example, any device that takes in USB power with a 120VAC "wall wart" plug can just be used with a buck convert plug instead or being powered directly from the DC current. LED lighting is taking in AC then converting to DC to power the LEDs. Your phone is taking in AC then converting to DC to power it. You…

How inefficient is the conversion process really though?

It varies pretty wildly, often efficiency ends up being dependent on the load since power supplies usually get optimized for a certain load range. Individually, the numbers might not look too bad, but when you think about how many individual AC->DC supplies you have, the losses can add up.

I've been involved in a side project developing a consumer-friendly rating of "power quality" for AC devices and AC->DC power supplies which summarizes efficiency over a range of loads, as well as incorporating power factor measurements. We've been testing common devices such as USB power supplies for phones and such, as well as things like laptop power supplies, due to how numerous they are. We've had a few surprises, for example, Apple power supplies generally don't fare that well.

Power Quality Score: https://pqs.app/ Detailed test data is public for some devices but not all, since we're trying to find paths to revenue starting with subscriptions for full test results. Let us know if you have feedback.

You might also be interested in the Youtube channel of my friend/PQS collaborator, where he's done some "deep dive" videos of testing some of the devices in the PQS database- particularly AC->DC USB power supplies due to how ubiquitous they are now- https://www.youtube.com/c/AllThingsOnePlace/ .

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#233

Post by kragen »

candiodari wrote: post #106
abetusk wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is this hard to believe? Not for nothing but there are solar bitcoin farms that are popping up for precisely this reason. In the region where I live (upstate New York, USA), there are solar panel fields where just five years ago there was nothing.

One reason is that this will make it a matter of survival for energy companies and governments to mandate connection to the grid and buying of electricity, for fear of having these critical companies fail. Because this is not going to make all energy cheaper. It's going to massively increase the cost of "legacy" energy while making some types of energy free. Perhaps they will use a "social" cost-sharing, or ... well…

PV can scale down pretty far, yeah, but it can also scale up. Having guys crawl around on rooftops trying not to damage your shingles is a lot more expensive than just setting up some panels in a field. The majority of PV getting installed is utility-scale, not household-scale, so you can buy cheap PV energy and live half a block from a supermarket and half a block from a chichi cafe.

As for costs, there's been concern for more than a decade about the "utility death spiral" scenario: some users disconnecting from a grid would spread the fixed costs of things like transmission and black start over a smaller number of remaining users, leading more of them to disconnect, and so on. So far it hasn't materialized anywhere, but as far as I know it could. I don't think the same scenario is likely with "legacy energy" like gasoline and natural gas, because the fixed costs are so low.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#234

Post by collyw »

CalRobert wrote: post #144
unpopularopp wrote: post #20

Climate migration. What happens Europe now/since 2015 is nothing that will come in the next couple of years. And the individual countries and so as the EU is pretty much unprepared. I'd even say that will be one of the cause of downfall of the union.

This is one of the reasons we moved from California to Ireland. People thought it was weird in 2013. Less so now.

They were telling us Manhattan would be underwater by now 20 years ago.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#235

Post by mcv »

pavlov wrote: post #198
baobob wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like this definitely needs to be expanded. What makes you think that? Their currency is stronger than before the war (despite internal fragility) They have the entire continent of Europe by the balls on oil/gas They've made an absolute killing in the energy sector this year due to the fear and scarcity they have created. They're making steady gains in their war in Ukraine They have the ear and economic heart o…

All of these are illusions. The currency is propped up by the government because it's not freely exchanged anymore. Europe is making a massive turn away from Russian energy despite the medium-term pain. The Russian military has achieved very little in five months of warfare. And China genuinely doesn't care about Russia. If the Russian Federation were to balkanize into smaller states, the Chinese leaders certainly wo…

> If the Russian Federation were to balkanize into smaller states, the Chinese leaders certainly wouldn't mind.

There's some territory there that the USSR took from China back when China was weak. Once those roles are reversed, who's to say China won't start looking in that direction?

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#237

Post by maverick74 »

throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

What amazes me is how little we talk about hydrogen (H2) fuel cell vehicles.

Because, unless we get a tremendous breakthrough in the next 5 years, electric battery vehicles will be a very big pain.

-Batteries are terribly expensive (and prices are not going down as fast as expected)

-Batteries degrade too fast

-Batteries take too long to charge

-Electricity prices are already going up terribly fast to take advantage of the boom (and blaming the war, and everything else to justify it's rise)

-Batteries pollute a lot more than previously though

-recycling Batteries is hard

-Batteries component materials are rare

-if you get into a crash your Battery will most likely be affected - which means you will probably have to spend almost the price of a new vehicle

Can we bet a little more on the most abundante substance on the universe?

I know it also has it's problems... But they do seen less...

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#238

Post by StefanWestfal »

Normille wrote: post #127
TMWNN wrote: post #43

The likely shutdown of all Russian gas to Germany this winter, resulting in a) 5-10X rise in home heating costs, and b) complete shutdown of many industries, resulting in a c) depression in the German (and thus European) economy

Let's hope so!

Why would you hope for suffering of millions?

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#239

Post by throwaway787544 »

SamuelAdams wrote: post #194
throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

Also note that “half of all new cars sold” does not mean half of all vehicles on the road. People will keep using their ICE cars for 10-20 years after their manufacture date. I’m curious to see the actual projections of cars on the road that are electric vs ICE. My guess is, by 2040, it might be 25% (in the USA).

About 1/4 of cars on the road globally will be electric but Europe and China will have a larger share than USA. Still, that means something like 25% of gas stations and parking lots worldwide having fast chargers. If they can't make that number, imagine the impact on driving when 1/4 of drivers are frustrated and their trips unrealistic. Passenger car ownership itself may fall, which would both hit the auto industry and bolster mass transit companies. But at the same time demand would be surging for ICE vehicles / infrastructure and gas prices will probably rise due to their devestment in anticipation of the EV revolution.
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