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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#231

Post by codeulike »

knzhou wrote: post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

But where is South Korea going with its strategy - are they going to keep doing that forever? And whats China's long term strategy? Wuhan is still locked down.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#232

Post by knzhou »

hanoz wrote: post #91

I think we (UK) are trying to be too cute about managing the curve, like we can ramp it up to the capacity line then slam on the brakes with the big measures at exactly the right time and keep it ticking along there nicely through the spring and summer and have this thing wrapped up by the end of the year. It could all go very badly wrong. I get the impression we're being overly influenced by a few gurus of behaviora…

> keep it ticking along there nicely through the spring and summer and have this thing wrapped up by the end of the year. It could all go very badly wrong.

It certainly will go badly wrong. If you use all your NHS capacity for treating COVID-19 alone, and expect the majority of the population to get it, and don't want to overload the NHS, then simple estimates that anybody can make indicate that you're going to need to keep it "ticking" for 100 years. Any faster, and you will overload and cause the death rate to soar.

The government surely knows this, so I don't know why they're acting like they don't.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#233

Post by arcticbull »

freehunter wrote: post #208
arcticbull wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, but as I personally am not exposing myself to anyone over the age of 31, and I am not sick, I don't see the harm, or myself as contributing.

But if you are in contact with someone under 31 who has no choice but to be in contact with someone over 31... I guess the question you have to consider is how much to blame is each individual who chooses to ignore recommended procedures yet passes the virus on to someone who ends up dying.

Then why are they out? They have no excuse. My parents are older and so I'm not going to visit them, and instead call regularly. That's unfortunate but that's the safest thing to do.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#234

Post by polote »

knzhou wrote: post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

THe strategy in Asia seems to keep the virus under control but people in those countries are much more disciplined than European, not sure the measures they take would be as much effective in Europe.

The strategy of UK seems valid as long as you protect the more vulnerable, which they don't do.

What is the strategy after a lock down? You go back to work? It needs only one person infected to get the virus propagating again...

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#236

Post by arcticbull »

ta999999171 wrote: post #211
arcticbull wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Stop it because it's unimaginable that the UK government is intentionally trying to kill off it's old folks no matter how much money that may save the NHS, in no small part because that would be akin to a genocide for profit"

You don't study governments much, huh

I uh, ... what

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#237

Post by tomp »

arcticbull wrote: post #158
aberoham wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

^^^ 2000% this, a large proportion can't change their ways, is not paying attention or simply doesn't care. It's shocking to still tonight walk past a packed pub on a Saturday night

Personally, I'm 30, have no contact with folks over 65, have no co-morbid conditions and so I have no reason to keep away from folks. I'm at zero risk. In fact if I get it now and develop an immunity, all the better. I have to assume the same is true of the folks at the pub -- otherwise it's them who are being irresponsible, not me.

I think this as well. The only problem I learned about, is that there seems to be a chance of long-term respiratory damage (e.g. 20% lower lung capacity), which is as of now unlikely to be properly tracked / reported, but likely higher than the reported number of "critical" or "death" outcomes (which indeed are tiny in < 40s)

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#238

Post by [deleted] »

dharma1 wrote: post #213
mantap wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What exactly is the risk of needing hospitalisation if you are young? Does anybody know?

It's too early to say with reliable data. We will definitely know in 2-3 weeks with data from many European countries. In Italy, it looks like the percentage of younger hospitalised people is 12%, but growing. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-...

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#239

Post by edouard-harris »

Here is a rule of thumb that will be familiar to many who manage risk in a professional capacity:

The time to get creative is when you face a capped downside on the one hand, and an uncapped upside on the other. The time to get conservative is when you face the opposite condition.

The reason for this rule is that creative policies almost never work; but when they work, they have a much higher chance of working extraordinarily well than conservative policies do.

The UK is facing a capped upside and a huge potential downside. The UK is choosing to handle this situation with a creative experiment. This experiment will, in all likelihood, not succeed. And unfortunately most values of "not succeed", in this context, map to catastrophic outcomes.

Time, as always, will tell.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#240

Post by lubujackson »

I think this is really a battle against ignorance. Until people see results in front of them they aren't going to respect these rules without authoritarian measures.

Best is to shut everything down for a month THEN let 40s and under back to work. By then, hospitals will have been overrun but hopefully on the upswing and people will be a lot more sober and willing to listen.

I imagine once the shutdowns happen and reality sets in, people will not want to go out and expose themselves willingly and politicians will rather keep everyone locked up as long as possible, but that is a mistake too. Everything hits with a 2 week lag so it is import to trust the trends and the analysis rather than the current situation - I expect us to be too conservative on the way out just as we have been too cavalier on the way in.

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