Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#221

Post by techdragon » Wed, Mar 22, 2023, 7:09 PM UTC

admissionsguy wrote: post #217

techdragon wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the big wildcard for me will be the currently unanswered question of how easy will it be to use new technologies like ChatGPT, various image and voice generation tools/models, to create content that manipulates them directly or indirectly towards or away from things as desired by the current (and future) powerful and wealthy people who don’t want to lose their power or wealth. Humans being social animals makes me…

I don't think new technologies change anything in this regard. Democracy has always been fundamentally a contest between powerful factions shaping the public opinion to their liking. Does not matter whether it's done through pamphlets, tabloids, radio, TV, internet, or generative AI.

I completely agree, the question isn’t so much about complete immunity to such technological manipulation since that’s been an ongoing theme of history, but more a matter of if the current trend of awareness and resistance (be it conscious or unconscious resistance) to such manipulation, which undeniably functions as a component of the younger generation’s rejection of classical narratives with respect to the normative trajectory of adulthood… a large part of this is obviously social dynamics robbing them of the ability to have these things, but when you look at the people who are bathed in the propaganda and drink the cool aid and spend all their time desperately trying to hustle their way towards the ludicrously difficult traditional goals of a house in the suburbs with a backyard, big enough for the 2.5 kids to run around in, with a two car garage so the wife can go shopping while the husband is at work… and somehow they fucking afford this on a single income because that’s still something people pretend can happen.

The point being… it’s not a given that the current rejection/resistance to the normative cultural pressures will remain strong enough to prevent these younger generations from slowly bending towards conservatism the way the previous three/four generations have. And I was just highlighting the fact that we can’t yet tell if the component of this drive towards conservatism that’s powered by technological manipulation by the powerful (newspapers, then radio, then television, then cable tv (in America), then the internet, now social media) will continue to be ineffective of these people or if they will slowly be sway over time.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#222

Post by ManlyBread » Wed, Mar 22, 2023, 7:19 PM UTC

shagymoe wrote: post #134

erlich wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone in charge are already extremely wealthy. They have zero skin in the game. J. Powell, 50MM. Yellen, 20MM. There is no ability for them to empathize with a regular taxpayer. Whatever happens their lifestyle will not be impacted one bit. You have to ask: what drives someone in this position. And this is a question that only the 200k ultra high net individuals (30mm+) in the world can answer. I think people stop…

All good points. Let's remove the power to control money from these people.

Good idea, what's your plan?

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#223

Post by testbjjl » Thu, Mar 23, 2023, 4:13 AM UTC

UncleOxidant wrote: post #7

No, I remember 2007-2008 pretty clearly. That felt much more precarious. Right now it seems pretty clear that if your bank fails you're going to get your money. That's not to say that this isn't the start of some kind of a financial crisis. But it could be very different from 2008. In this case I think the risk is more towards high inflation - for example, if enough banks were to fail (hypothetically - I doubt this w…

During this crisis, the Dow will rise because investors, or those left with a job and money to invest know there will be bailouts. These layoffs will put people back in the office so the cities don’t collapse. I don’t know how that’s going to happen any other way.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#224

Post by csomar » Thu, Mar 23, 2023, 5:41 AM UTC

shagymoe wrote: post #131

nwah1 wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin regularly dives by orders of magnitude worse than the 2008 financial crisis. Angsty posting like this probably sounded really cool to people in high school, but I'm not sure why we should be impressed with your fact-free faux-radical grifterism.

The value of Bitcoin would not fluctuate wildly if it were the default currency. You're not even attempting to argue in good faith or imagine how things could be different. What you call "angsty" is what I call "rational". I see you're happy to continue experiencing these crises which are, in fact, happening. Also, I don't think you know what grifterism means, if that's even a word.

> The value of Bitcoin would not fluctuate wildly if it were the default currency.

I wouldn't think so. Many of our "crisis" are due to the value of "cash" or liquidity to fluctuate significantly. This is the case in the recent banking crisis. In the case of Bitcoin, this will be a deep dive in price. Now which one is better? I don't know.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#225

Post by somewhat_drunk » Thu, Mar 23, 2023, 8:59 AM UTC

UncleOxidant wrote: post #7

No, I remember 2007-2008 pretty clearly. That felt much more precarious. Right now it seems pretty clear that if your bank fails you're going to get your money. That's not to say that this isn't the start of some kind of a financial crisis. But it could be very different from 2008. In this case I think the risk is more towards high inflation - for example, if enough banks were to fail (hypothetically - I doubt this w…

Same. 2008 was a potential world destroyer. This is small peanuts by comparison.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#226

Post by FrontierPsych » Sat, Mar 25, 2023, 7:35 PM UTC

blablabla123 wrote: post #159

FrontierPsych wrote: post #100

2008 was bad. This is much worse, in my opinion. At least the loans were backed by real property in 2008. Homes that will have value and in fact have came back way, way more valuable than the bottom of that crash. What we have now is a crash in financial instruments themselves. It's about supply and demand. The USA has been printing up dollars like crazy since the beginning of the Covid pandemic. Simple supply and de…

But banks also had much more relaxed capital requirements. > It's about supply and demand. The USA has been printing up dollars like crazy since the beginning of the Covid pandemic. Indeed it's about supply and demand. The inflation is largely caused by a physical supply shortage. The current banking problems are separate from that and because some (smaller) banks didn't have to comply with Basel III and all.

>The inflation is largely caused by a physical supply shortage.

Of course that is the case. That is almost always the case. Too much money means people have more money to buy physical stuff, and there is always a shortage of stuff, supply chain or not. Even if all the computer chips and everything was manufactured in the USA for cars, there would still be a shortage of cars.

The physical supply shortage is caused by too much money in the system, not by supply chains or anything else.

If people didn't have as much money, then there would not be as much demand for physical supplies, and everything would adjust. "Sorry, I don't have money to buy a car." That means one less car is needed for total inventory. It adds up when 1 million people don't buy cars that would have if they had the money.

But there is so much money supply that people are bidding up the price of goods. The homeless are not contributing to the physical supply shortage, because they have no money. More money = more demand.

Read about any crash and you will see the same exact situation. Read about the Spanish Price Revolution - the Spanish hauled so much gold and silver in from the New World that it massively increased money supply, and the value of gold and silver went way down. Prices then go up relative to the money. Not only did Spain suffer, but it spread across Western Europe. Too many people with too much money chased too few goods.