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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#221

Post by knzhou »

prox wrote: post #218
knzhou wrote: post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

Also, the more time you win, the closer we get to a cure, vaccin or way to deal with it better.

Indeed, you buy up time to get more medical supplies or figure out more effective treatments. For example, China is now getting over it, but is still producing ridiculous amounts of medical equipment, which will soon get delivered across the world -- even if you must have a peak, you want that peak to be after you get this equipment, not before.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#222

Post by hellofunk »

arcticbull wrote: post #158
aberoham wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

^^^ 2000% this, a large proportion can't change their ways, is not paying attention or simply doesn't care. It's shocking to still tonight walk past a packed pub on a Saturday night

Personally, I'm 30, have no contact with folks over 65, have no co-morbid conditions and so I have no reason to keep away from folks. I'm at zero risk. In fact if I get it now and develop an immunity, all the better. I have to assume the same is true of the folks at the pub -- otherwise it's them who are being irresponsible, not me.

I’ve seen this attitude quite a lot among younger people lately, it’s just super irresponsible and arrogant. In a situation like this, the responsibility must be shared, no one should consider themselves free from the responsibilities of stopping the spread this virus.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#223

Post by rusk »

phpnode wrote: post #204
cirrus-clouds wrote: post #135

Here is a discussion on Channel 4 on the approach taken by the UK government. https://youtu.be/C98FmoZVbjs?t=590 Debating are: - John Edmunds: a professor in the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - Tomas Pueyo: his modelling of the pandemic has gone viral on the web: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop... During the debate,…

I'm going to go with the guy who was awarded an OBE for his work in infectious disease control: https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2016/leading_infecti...

OBE is a political honour, not a scientific one.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#224

Post by Udik »

jfkebwjsbx wrote: post #195
mkl wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

50%×2% = 1%. 1%×67.5 million = 675,000.

Which is "like a million". Both the 50% and the 2% are very conservative.

Especially the 2% figure holds when intensive care is available. But if you plan to let millions get infected at the same time, there won't be any intensive care- there will probably be no care at all.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#225

Post by darkwater »

ubercow13 wrote: post #132
new2628 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At a larger level, "hurting the economy" may be the best thing to happen in a long time for (1) the environment, e.g. clean air, (2) family time, (3) cutting out some useless activities that go on due to sheer inertia, like formula-1, olympics, auto shows, most conventions, etc., (4) give people and societies a chance to slow down, think through things and refactor a system that was running full speed towards the wal…

Doesn't seem so clear. During a recession, you might have less money for investing green technologies. No one will be able to afford an electric car. You might get more family time but the stress of the main earner being unemployed will mean it's not high quality.

I really wonder why we can't all just slow down the money circulation. There are many business and people endangered by the situation? They can't earn enough money? Well they don't have to pay the full price for basic needs, mortgages etc. People living on this stop gaining money like before? Discounts for them as well, they just keep working for the greater good because we are in a unique situation. Rinse and repeat until we go full circle.

What's the problem here?

The (totally made up number) 15-20% of greedy people who put money first no matter what.

It's really sad.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#226

Post by magicsmoke »

thom wrote: post #38

You can read some of the rationale behind the plan here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... I'll be honest, I watched the announcement on Friday in open mouthed horror. I can't claim I have a concrete refutation for either the broad logic or the specific evidence underlying it, but even the best case scenario is a disaster of historic proportions. I wish us luck. I wish the rest of the wo…

You could think of this as the advantage of a decentralized world with every country making decisions and experimenting independently. Maybe the UK's approach is the right one, maybe it isn't. If it turns out to be more effective we'll learn something useful for future pandemics. If not then only the UK goes down the drain and we'll still learn something from it. Best of luck.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#227

Post by knzhou »

ubercow13 wrote: post #212

Modelling disease spread seems like the kind of scientific endeavour that one can dedicate one's whole life to becoming an expert in, and many people presumably do. Considering that, why should anyone give much credence to a random medium article on the topic by a 'silicon valley tech executive'? (lol) There are 10's of thousands of scientific research papers [1], by scientists, on COVID-19 already, and this guy is j…

Because the models the government's epidemiologists are using explicitly don't account for all possible actions.

Back when this was taking off in China, a bunch of epidemiologists came out and said it was completely uncontrollable there. They were wrong, because they hadn't accounted for the extreme actions the Chinese government was willing to take; it was not even a possibility in the models. The same story repeated itself for Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea. They defeated the models by taking effective actions that were "out of the training data" for epidemiology. Given these 5 examples, there's no reason other countries can't defeat the models too.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#228

Post by avocado4 »

This is the same thing China is doing, except China is also lying about it and saying they have "contained" it with extreme quarantine, in part to trick other nations into doing the same thing to tank their economies while China is going back to work and letting the virus spread.

Good for UK to step up amidst hysteria. Hopefully other democratic nations will follow suit.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#229

Post by new2628 »

ubercow13 wrote: post #132
new2628 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At a larger level, "hurting the economy" may be the best thing to happen in a long time for (1) the environment, e.g. clean air, (2) family time, (3) cutting out some useless activities that go on due to sheer inertia, like formula-1, olympics, auto shows, most conventions, etc., (4) give people and societies a chance to slow down, think through things and refactor a system that was running full speed towards the wal…

Doesn't seem so clear. During a recession, you might have less money for investing green technologies. No one will be able to afford an electric car. You might get more family time but the stress of the main earner being unemployed will mean it's not high quality.

> No one will be able to afford an electric car.

I realize my opinion may not be the mainstream one, but I think the 2008 financial crisis did more good for the environment than all the "green investments" of the past few decades.

> the stress of the main earner being unemployed

That can indeed be a problem for families. I hope the crisis will bring about some reduction in consumption/travel, downshifting, rethinking of priorities, simpler living.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#230

Post by patrec »

simonh wrote: post #42
chippy wrote: post #12

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/123882151552689766... appears to give a better explanation from the modellers. The aim is to flatten the curve, any herd immunity is a by-product but not the aim.

I think herd immunity is an integral part of the strategy. If a population never gets herd immunity, it will keep on getting infection breakouts and keep on having to impose lockdowns. The only way to stop doing lockdowns is either to prevent the ingress of the virus, ever, or eventually reach herd immunity. The virus is everywhere now, it’s part of the landscape, so preventing breakouts is just flat out not possible…

> so preventing breakouts is just flat out not possible

Why not?

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