Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

It’s more likely that legal shenanigans happen like VRA section 2 going away and deepening gerrymandering wars or looking for excuses to disqualify people from voting for “election integrity” and other creative democratic backsliding that would pass muster at SCOTUS.

- US starts a digital services trade war with the EU. It starts out with tariffs on digital services provided to the USA. EU responds in kind. Google Cloud, AWS and Azure lose a lot of clients over this, but they mitigate the damage by restructuring their business to avoid the tariffs. The tariffs don't achieve any policy change in the EU and eventually settle on a tolerable level.

- Significantly more restrictions and tightening on the US Visa Waiver Programme, with a small chance that it is rescinded altogether. VWP beneficiary countries threaten to retaliate in kind, but never do, because US tourism is too valuable.

- China continues to overtake the USA in growth in tech and digital services related exports. FVEY gets very nervous about this, but in practice nothing is done because of strong consumer demand.

- Coreweave faces solvency issues and numerous AI companies fundraising are forced to do their next raise at a down round.

- AI job loss is revealed to not actually be real. The cause of unemployment really is finally realized to be economic uncertainty caused by high inflation, interest rates and international trade policy uncertainty. Potential digital services tariffs and AI boom collapse make the situation much worse.

- Significantly more momentum behind the HIRE Act, with a small chance that it passes. If it does, tech giants close their EU/UK/Canada/Australia offices and move the roles to India.

- Russia / Ukraine "peace deal" is signed, but will be broken by Russia based on some false flag. Russia's invasion and occupation of Ukraine unfortunately continues, but doesn't progress.

- MAGA aligned actors interfere in the election of another country.

- USA conducts a "special operation" in Venezuela.

- Weaponized AI generated disinformation and fake audio/video/images starts to become more common. A major news story will break based on AI generated disinformation. It will be disproven quickly, but not before it has had a chance to spread.

JPEG-XL or AV2 with AVIF. I still dont believe AV2 would be a better technology. But regardless we need something better than JPEG. And WebP wont cut it. Arguably JPEG-XL isn't good enough either but we have to take what we have.

LLEVC + EVCv2, VVCv2, AV2, or H.267 early release. We need better video codec. H.264 High Profile is still 70% of all video usage. May be LLEVC could be a decent alternative if the recent testing showing 60% bitrate reduction were accurate.

Apple please open source your AAC-LC Encoder. It has been 10 years since you last update it and the release before that was 5 years so we are nearly 16 years since you last touched on it.

Battle of OLED and RGB LCD. It has been a long time since display technology was this exciting. We have Tandem WOLED and RGB OLED, battling RGB Mini LED and SQD - Mini LED. Both will drive quality and price improvements.

Safari - Please fix your multi Tab ( 10s to 100s of tabs ) issues. There are too many to even list but just copying 80 of what Firefox is doing is more than enough.

Oracle release ZFS, MySQL, Solaris and dTrace into certain foundation. With their licenses changed to BSD.

Bring back old 1.5mm typing distance keyboard on Laptops.

HyperScale Cloud competition. I still dont understand why all Cloud are so expensive. And dedicated server are not promoted enough.