> We never thought our startup would be threatened by the unreliability of a company like Microsoft You're new to Azure I guess. I'm glad the outage I had yesterday was only the third major one this year, though the one in august made me lose days of traffic, months of back and forth with their support, and a good chunk of my sanity and patience in face of blatant documented lies and general incompetence. One consume…
Too much capacity is money spent getting no return, up front capex, ongoing opex, physical space in facilities etc.
On cloud scales (averaged out over all the customers) the demand tends to follow pretty stable and predictable patterns, and the ones that actually tend to put capacity at risk (large customers) have contracts where they'll give plenty of heads-up to the providers.
What has been very problematical over the past few years has been the supply chains. Intel's issues for a few years in getting CPUs out really hurt the supply chains. All of the major providers struggled through it, and the market is still somewhat unpredictable. The supply chain woes that have been wrecking chaos with everything from the car industry to the domestic white goods industry are having similar impacts on the server industry.
The level of unreliability in the supply chain is making it very difficult for the capacity management folks to do their job. It's not even that predictable which supply chain is going to be affected. Some of them are running far smoother and faster and capacity lands far faster than you'd expect, while others are completely messed up, then next month it's all flipped around. They're being paranoid, assuming the worst and still not getting it right.
This is an area where buying physical hardware directly doesn't provide any particular advantages. Their supply chains are just as messed up.
The best thing to try to do is do your best to be as hardware agnostic as is technically possible, so you can use whatever is available... which sucks.