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Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

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211–220 of 221 posts

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh that part is just a dumb joke. It's just thinking in the broader picture, people have been getting eaten by wild cats for thousands of years. We can continue doing that sustainably for another unit in the thousands of years. But if things start getting nuked? At BEST you happen to be in the far reaches of the Patagonia or maybe New Zealand, and even then the fallout may cause agonizing death. At least if you get i…

This must have been a small lion. A full grown lion will hit you like a train.

Yeah, usually the ones who go after humans aren't of the strongest variety but there is the odd case out of countries like Uganda as well [1]

[1] https://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/50349/20220416/huma...

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You used to be able to buy an 800 square foot house on a single middle class income, live on spam and potatoes, et cetera. It's still possible to buy a mobile home, eat spam and potatoes and support a family on a single middle class income.

The two scenarios are not comparable. For example, they would result in very different social environments, different access to education, employment etc.

You're right, the 2022 child would have vastly improved access to education. Mostly, but not entirely, due to the Internet.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#213
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bill Gates, for one. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/13/business/gates-foundation...

I gotta say, Bill Gates single-handedly owning the health infrastructure of the third world doesn’t put me at ease. This is a man who was ruthlessly capitalistic throughout his career, and hung out with a convicted rapist (Epstein) on a regular basis. At the very least, he’s an “ends justify the means”, willing to look the other way kind of guy. There’s no doubt the Gates foundation has done a lot for global health,…

> was ruthlessly capitalistic throughout his career

"was"?

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#214
post #69

I'm a PhD student in physics and I am really, really optimistic about how the field will be developing going forward. People are well aware of the glamorous fields of physics: cosmology and particle physics. These are the disciplines that concern the frontiers of the very large and the very small respectively. I don't care so much about those. The frontier that I'm most interested in is the most abstract one: complex…

If you were an optimistic science fiction writer, any ways in which this may change ordinary lives for the better?

There are too many fields in which advances in complex systems modelling will be revolutionary and I frankly don't have the knowledge to describe most those. Let me tell you about my own field, soft condensed matter physics.

A grand aim of soft matter physicists is to be able to describe biology in the quantitative language of physics. However, this is hard: biology is ridiculously complicated. However, as mentioned, we're slowly but surely making consistent progress. Advanced molecular simulation combined with machine learning appears to be an incredibly powerful approach that an entire generation of PhD students have begun to master. This has the add on effect in that it becomes easier to build theories if you have precise numerical undestanding of the physical system you're trying to study: something that simulation provides that traditional experiment doesn't.

Let's get onto the sci-fi. Imagine now that it's the 2050s and we've gotten to a point where the complexity of biology is manageable. Not fully solved: that's not going to happen any time soon. But manageable. At this point we can harness microbiology as an engineering tool. Viruses especially become active materials for construction: this has actually already happened [1], but in an extremely rudimentary way. Viruses are essentially spontaneously self-assembling molecular machines: even having a vague understanding of how they can be engineered promises a nanotechnology revolution. And that's just viruses. Imagine the other players of biology being actively used as tools for humanity: where does that even end?

We're taking our first teeny-tiny steps towards actually developing an understanding of biology in the same way we've developed an undestanding of electronics. We can't do it in the same way because the challenges are so much more tremendous, but we're honestly getting there. Ordinary lives won't so much as be changed for the better - rather, the meaning of "ordinary" life will be changed entirely.

[1] Fischlechner, M. and Donath, E. (2007), Viruses as Building Blocks for Materials and Devices.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#215

Open Source has been a resounding success. It has become so ubiquitous that we don't note it anymore. Its the normal. Moreover, its general cultural practices, openness, collaboration etc have also become norms. Back 20 years ago, this was unimaginable. A great change has happened. On top of that, user-generated content has become the king. Its not 6-figure columnists working for corporate outlets who are setting the…

Agree on crowdfunding, but a side-effect of that has been fragmentation of culture. That means that pop culture has had to increasingly pander to the lowest common denominator and get a lot worse: see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31024896 On user-generated content, I also think things have been getting a lot worse since the 2000s. What you refer to as the small forums on the fringes of the internet used to be…

> but a side-effect of that has been fragmentation of culture.

Is it a bad thing though?

In old times, the culture was harmonized, but this was through whatever those who controlled the centralized means of distribution wanted people to hear and see.

> That means that pop culture has had to increasingly pander to the lowest common denominator and get a lot worse

Totally disagree. First, the pop culture was always like that. In every age you find intellectuals and sensitive people complaining about how bad the mainstream culture has become. For example I don't see today's pop culture any worse than the 1980s, in which being selfish, material, hedonistic was being pushed and praised by entire media & music and that was something 'okay'.

But today we also have many subcultures. The people who couldnt get together, leave aside do anything together in the past, are now able to find each other and create collectives and live their lives how they want to. Not only in terms of culture and consumption of content actually - there are people who create different lifestyles.

> On user-generated content, I also think things have been getting a lot worse since the 2000s. What you refer to as the small forums on the fringes of the internet used to be its motor.

I think such belief is fueled more by nostalgia and also the lack of awareness of the people about the communities outside the few ones in which they participated back in 2000s.

Because even then, going to the 'wrong' forum would put you into an environmen totally different, even hostile, with 'quality' content being nonexistent.

The rest was the same - corporations have been doing the same things in the past too. Except, today you can eventually know which influencer is totally sold out and you can choose who to follow. And this is without talking about directly fan-funded creators like the ones who use Patreon - making $100k/month or more with the subscriptions of their fans and without needing to kowtow to anyone on the planet but their own fans.

> There was more connection and more humanity, and 'corporations' had far, far less power than today.

Only in your personal life, close social circle and family. Otherwise, corporate world and its standards were the defaults for entire society - from workplace to the economy, news and everything else.

> What is the vision or the bright future that we go to from here?

Big complicated topic. It depends on the reaction of the establishment and the existing order to the changes I described in my earlier post. I'd rather not enter such a large topic here.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#216
post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you were an optimistic science fiction writer, any ways in which this may change ordinary lives for the better?

There are too many fields in which advances in complex systems modelling will be revolutionary and I frankly don't have the knowledge to describe most those. Let me tell you about my own field, soft condensed matter physics. A grand aim of soft matter physicists is to be able to describe biology in the quantitative language of physics. However, this is hard : biology is ridiculously complicated. However, as mentioned…

Thanks, that's actually rather inspiring.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#217
post #127

Just reverse the question, what makes you believe all these negatives are true? You have some secret documents on R&D labs that you can say tech advancement stagnated? You probably don't understand how big world really is, you probably don't understand how many different companies are there working on making stuff more efficient. All mobile phones looking the same for last 5 years is not "tech advancement stagnated".…

What I see is that the most capable people I know are working on making ads more efficient, one of the most visible latest innovations is people delivering food on bicycles, and don't even get me started about crypto. So that's what I'm asking - what is there to be optimistic about? Say, in the 1950s you could be optimistic about all the home automation tech coming out, like dishwashers, washing machines, cars etc. g…

Again you focus on what you see. I wanted to point out that you might want to think on what you don't see or don't know.

Like all biochemical F500 companies or energy companies - do you happen to know any biochem engineers? I don't know any.

If you take look at F500 list it is not like Apple, Google or Facebook hire all the people, they hire something around 150k people each and there are a lot other companies that hire around the same amount of people.

There is no evidence that people at Pfizer are somehow less smart than ones working at Apple :)

I would never let any software developer run any part of oil refinery :)

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This must have been a small lion. A full grown lion will hit you like a train.

Yeah, usually the ones who go after humans aren't of the strongest variety but there is the odd case out of countries like Uganda as well [1] [1] https://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/50349/20220416/huma...

also something observable with wolves. those who attack humans are usually too sick to run after hares and deers. lucky for us they haven't figured out yet that humans are basically a free all you can eat buffet.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see what youre saying, but then again, think of those who are unfortunately disabled, maimed, disfigured, socially inept, etc who have never/may never have a fair shot at a relationship. For them, sex robots/robotic companions could be a fantastic thing given that theyd accept them unconditionally. It could have the ability to fill an emotional and/or physical void for them.

think of those who are unfortunately disabled, maimed, disfigured, socially inept, etc who have never/may never have a fair shot at a relationship None of those things stop people having relationships.

For some, they sure as hell do.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eaten by a lion can be a slow and painful death. It will be worse if they decide to play with you a bit before eating you alive. You will get bitten bite by bite with blood flowing out slowly. It is incredibly cruel process and can take hours if you're unlucky. It is hard to regard it as 'manly'. I will pick nuclear blast any day as I will be gone in less than a second.

Alot of us don't live in nuke target zones and will just die slowly of the collapse of civilization, nuclear winter, fallout etc anyways and it won't be due to our horrible decisions. Gimme the cat. I'll take agonizing hours over days.

Just do what I did and move to Washington DC. Problem solved.
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