Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#211

Post by Sohcahtoa82 » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 8:27 AM UTC

monkmartinez wrote: post #194

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So looking forward not to have to take the car to any kind of mechanic at all except for brakes and wiper fluid. You won't even need to go to a mechanic for brakes. Regen breaking means your brake pads are rarely actually used and will probably last a million miles. AFAIK, the only maintenance item you'll likely be taking an EV to is tires.

This just isn't factual. Every part of car will eventually wear out. Go spend some time on the Tesla forums and you'll see they are not even close to maintenance free.

Are you using "maintenance" in this context to refer to repairing parts that might wear out or break, such as perhaps a suspension component, or a door handle breaking?

Because I'm only considering "regular" maintenance that most people do every X miles or Y years. For a Tesla, the only "regular" maintenance is cabin filters, tire-related maintenance, brake fluid, an A/C. The 12V battery also needs replacement periodically.

I strictly use the word "maintenance" to refer to preventative care and replacement of consumables such as tires, filters, and washer fluid. Repairs of failed parts are something else.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#212

Post by Sohcahtoa82 » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 8:32 AM UTC

baybal2 wrote: post #178

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This differentiation is superfluous with EVs, and I believe we will not see this living much longer. Am I understanding your statement correctly? Are you implying that FWD/RWD/AWD doesn't matter for an EV? Because from a handling and safety perspective, it matters just as much in an EV as it does in an ICE.

Yes, EVs are predominantly city cars. Very heavy, and low-central centre of gravity. Nobody will be racing them, otherwise the stability provided by weight should be very good. However, I don't see a real reason for FWD electric cars other than those being retrofit models.

Okay, this is only true if you live in a warm and dry climate and don't have a lead foot.

> However, I don't see a real reason for FWD electric cars other than those being retrofit models.

FWD cars are far more stable than RWD. This is important when driving in the rain as it helps lessen the likelihood of hydroplaning. Non-performance cars aren't just FWD because it's cheaper than RWD to make, but because they're safer.

And if you live in a climate with a lot of snow, you'll definitely want AWD.

> However, I don't see a real reason for FWD electric cars other than those being retrofit models.

As I said, safety. Yes, the traction control in an EV works amazing, arguably better than an ICE, but even better is a drivetrain setup that reduces the need for it entirely.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#213

Post by baybal2 » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 8:46 AM UTC

maratc wrote: post #141

The futurologists think that most people would just stop buying cars altogether. Once there is a self-driving (electric) car that you can order from your phone and that will — cheaply! — take you from point A to point B, the need in owning a car will (mostly) disappear. The people would stop being car buyers. Instead, robo-taxi companies will buy most of the cars. For these, there would be no need in brands or market…

> some of them would just assemble and service their own fleets from readily-available parts, similar to how Amazon/Google/Microsoft self-assemble their own cloud servers (instead of buying them from Dell/HP).

Amazon/Google/Microsoft don't assembly their own servers, rather than they buy servers directly from OEMs who were previously selling to Dell/HP

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#214

Post by baybal2 » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 9:01 AM UTC

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #212

baybal2 wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, EVs are predominantly city cars. Very heavy, and low-central centre of gravity. Nobody will be racing them, otherwise the stability provided by weight should be very good. However, I don't see a real reason for FWD electric cars other than those being retrofit models.

Okay, this is only true if you live in a warm and dry climate and don't have a lead foot. > However, I don't see a real reason for FWD electric cars other than those being retrofit models. FWD cars are far more stable than RWD. This is important when driving in the rain as it helps lessen the likelihood of hydroplaning. Non-performance cars aren't just FWD because it's cheaper than RWD to make, but because they're sa…

> FWD cars are far more stable than RWD. This is important when driving in the rain as it helps lessen the likelihood of hydroplaning. Non-performance cars aren't just FWD because it's cheaper than RWD to make, but because they're safer.

No, when your centre of mass is not that engine block you don't get any of those benefits. FWD vehicles would otherwise be less stable than RWD because of having to fight the pendulum effect.

Remember, economic FWD only became possible thanks to computers both for nailing the best dynamic characteristics on design stage, and helping with dynamic control. That's why FWD were much more crashier before early-mid-nineties.

If there was an option to disable all safety electronics on a modern FWD car, most people would've decided against them in an instant after the first test drive.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#215

Post by sunstone » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 10:59 AM UTC

The coming sea change in electrifying transportation will include roads just as much as cars. Right now we are just barely off the bottom of the 'S' curve of transitioning from ICE to electric. But in about fifteen years we'll be near the middle of that curve and that's when we'll realize roads could be much better if the ICE cars where banned.

With only electric vehicles the air will cease to be continually poisoned by emissions and then roads and streets will start to move indoors. Covered roads will become practical with electric only vehicles and the majority of those e-vehicles will be a lot smaller than the current average ICE car because electric technologies make smaller vehicles much more practical. The current boom in e-bikes is just the beginning of a major trend to electric smaller vehicles.

A lot more quickly than you expect ICE vehicles will be restricted to the highways and periphery of towns and cities because they'll be too big, heavy and poisonous. In a word they'll become unsafe for urban transport and our cities will become much more healthy and livable.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#216

Post by imtringued » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 12:52 PM UTC

lowbloodsugar wrote: post #133

at_a_remove wrote: post #64

I think that you can take all of the differentiators that exist for ICE vehicles (price, reliability, status ...) and then add in some new factors: 1) Range anxiety 2) Recharge concerns (plays into range anxiety) 3) Novel technology fears (will my trusted mechanic of twenty years be able to handle this or am I stuck with the dealership?) 4) "Handling" -- will this drive like my old ICE car? Apparently a major irritat…

Re: #3 - handle what? Changing the oil? Replacing the clutch. Dealing with the camshaft gears shredding and destroying engine? Fixing any part of the gear box? Of the automatic gearbox? My belt tensioner isn't. The clutch on my ac is broken. My powersteering hydraulic line came loose and sprayed all over the road. My power steering pump needs replacing (a month after the fluid got dumped). Piston ring blown. Cylinder…

Other than oil dripping on to the parking lot I haven't had any ICE related problems. Sure the car needs a yearly inspection and oil changes but the costs have been minimal. I've spent more on window repairs, brake pad & discs, tires and broken power steer than on ICE related maintenance.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#217

Post by auiya » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 1:38 PM UTC

fomine3 wrote: post #197

auiya wrote: post #43

I see the comparison you're trying to make with the recent LG news, but here's why I think it's not fair to compare smart phones and cars in terms of commoditization. Smart phones in terms of styling are all basically a black glass slab at this point, styling barely comes into play. And it's not that phone manufacturers haven't tried, it's that people don't value smart phone styling as much. With cars on the other ha…

Exceptionally worked styling: the Apple logo

...which is then always covered up by some ugly case

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#218

Post by schwartzworld » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 1:45 PM UTC

throwawayboise wrote: post #20

schwartzworld wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Range could be less of an issue if charge speed is fast enough.

Range needs to be a few hundred miles regardless. Nobody wants to stop and recharge every 90 minutes. Range, charging speed, and availability of rapid charging points that is close to the availability of gas stations are all essential.

> Range needs to be a few hundred miles regardless

No way. Who drives that much day to day? A little electric vehicle for commuting / errands doesn't need that kind of range if it can charge fast enough. Sure, some people need more than that, but if you're taking a handful of long trips per year, you can just rent a car with longer range for those purposes.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#219

Post by JoeAltmaier » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 2:15 PM UTC

maratc wrote: post #210

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Roads are still roads though. And they get pretty full now. Imagine rush hour with twice the traffic.

A massive robo-taxi company is well prepared to put several people going to a same place in a single taxi. I expect the full robo-traffic to actually be less than the traffic of vehicles occupied by owner alone.

It'll sure take lots of tricks like that to mitigate the huge downside. At some point it just becomes a bus route.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#220

Post by nikau » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 2:27 PM UTC

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #211

monkmartinez wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This just isn't factual. Every part of car will eventually wear out. Go spend some time on the Tesla forums and you'll see they are not even close to maintenance free.

Are you using "maintenance" in this context to refer to repairing parts that might wear out or break, such as perhaps a suspension component, or a door handle breaking? Because I'm only considering "regular" maintenance that most people do every X miles or Y years. For a Tesla, the only "regular" maintenance is cabin filters, tire-related maintenance, brake fluid, an A/C. The 12V battery also needs replacement period…

What's the point of compartmentalizing it other than to push a misleading "EVs are cheaper" narrative?

If it costs money its adds to the total cost of ownership, whether its preventative maintenance or unscheduled break fix.

The only difference with preventative is its scheduled so you can organize the work to fit your schedule without much inconvenience.

At the end of the day you need to factor in the entire cost of the car over its lifespan and figure out at what distance the cost of ownership crosses over from ICE being cheaper to EV being cheaper.

This includes repairs, fuel/electricity, insurance, opportunity cost of not having the price difference to invest, etc.