Earlier quoted context omitted.
but we're not having deflation. With fewer and fewer people working, there's less and less supply with even larger demand, now that they're printing money like never before. As a result, we're going to get really really serious inflation of over 2%, 3%, maybe even more than 3%. It doesn't sound like much because we've become innured to it. But, it's really bad. Just think, you earned 100K in 1 year and 1 year later i…
At the moment, foreign demand for the dollar is so high that we are experiencing deflation (liquidity is still too low which is entirely why the fed is moving towards negative interest rates), in spite of the money printer going "brrrrr"
Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?
211–220 of 259 posts
Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?
#212Earlier quoted context omitted.
That analogy works when everybody is doing the same thing and it's common knowledge that the average person has their assets sitting in their castle, but we're talking about 2020 when that would be the exception, not the norm. You're acting like I would go on hackernews and tell everybody where my money is or something...
I assume if you were going to tell hackernews it would be with a Show HN post for your new pirate app that allows users to find where you have hidden the treasure in your house.
Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?
#213It also provides a system where DAI holders can lock their assets and receive 2%/year. So, if your concern is just to get a positive savings rate, you could take a look at it.
Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?
#214You have to look at real rates, not nominal rates. The only markets that have negative nominal rates are battling deflation (which the US is not) or have serious liquidity concerns at the moment. The Fed is unlikely to go negative as they face a very different beast. Here's a quick example. Let's say you're in a deflationary environment: in 1 year, your money actually buys you more than it did last year, let's say fo…
"So, since you don't want to store that money under your mattress"... I never understood/agreed with this argument. I'd much rather withdraw all my money and keep it in a safe than lock in a loss. I suppose for most people though the minor loss of principal outweighs that inconvenience, but for me, as a matter of principle, I refuse to be paid less than my principal (I didn't mean for that to come out as cheesy as it…
Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?
#215Earlier quoted context omitted.
> in 1 year, your money actually buys you more than it did last year, let's say for instance, 2% more. Under this weird environment It's worth pointing out that this is not "weird", but rather the natural state of things! The effect is so strong in computing that we still see it, but technological progress means everything in general gets easier to produce. This policy that "prices must always go up" is itself the ab…
> It's worth pointing out that this is not "weird", but rather the natural state of things! Except in health care, education, and real-estate - all three of which are needs more fundamental than personal computing or electronics.
Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?
#216Here's what I'm looking at... Since interest rates will be low, it could be a good buying opportunity for investment property. There is always risk here and with a rent strike looming there is potential for even more. I was already in the market for investment property so I've been following various markets (zillow lets you export a ton of data about historic property values and projections). Prices haven't fallen ye…
> I was already in the market for investment property I talked about buying a condo with my brother and renting it out but at the end of the day I'm just not comfortable just taking someone else's income because I happen to have the money on hand to make a down payment. It seems so predatory.
At the end of the day, somebody is going to rent them a place and I feel like I am one of the better people to do that. From my experience as a tenant, I think I can be a better landlord than someone whose only source of income is other people's rent.
Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?
#217Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's because you don't understand finance. Leverage is the easiest way to make a larger percentage on your money, as long as it's used prudently. Borrowing money to buy real estate and then collect income is a very common way to leverage your money. Over time that builds real wealth. My friend has bought 5 properties and is renting them all out. When he retires, the properties will have been paid for, and the renta…
Which is great in a rising market, but will ruin him when the market falls (which it looks like it's about to do). Leverage works both ways, it will amplify both gains and losses.
Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?
#218If you play to win, you are most likely following accepted best practices to maximize gains - in your career, socially, economically, and so on. You optimize to "cut the fat" regularly, stay with the trends and try to be the front-runner in everything. In this market, playing only as a winner amounts to taking on huge amounts of risk, because there's high volatility and little accepted wisdom or trends to follow. Any move that uses leverage could be the one that makes you wash out - and in the same way, being gregariously social to keep up appearances during a pandemic may kill you.
The "survivor" method is what it sounds like: playing to not lose. They are not just aiming for low numeric risk factors, though; the point is to have second, third etc. lines of defenses against black swans. Survivors will tend to look for overlooked niches and early diversification. They amass unlikely hoards while keeping their heads down, which leaves them isolated a lot of the time.
In general the optimal position for every market is where winner strategies intersect with survivor strategies: Find something that is relatively stable that nobody is talking about and move your money closer to it. Then when the business cycle picks up your portfolio magically turns into something positioned to capitalize.
Of course, the essential problem is that if nobody is talking about it, how are you going to discover it? If you wait until it hits the news, that's probably too late.
But business formation or repurposing presents another option. Down cycles are opportunities to start the next trend yourself, because the air is clear and you don't have heavy competition. When a market is competitive, everyone spends on sales and marketing to be the loudest voice. When it's quiet, "build it and they will come" becomes a great deal more plausible and you can really focus on product.
Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?
#219You have to look at real rates, not nominal rates. The only markets that have negative nominal rates are battling deflation (which the US is not) or have serious liquidity concerns at the moment. The Fed is unlikely to go negative as they face a very different beast. Here's a quick example. Let's say you're in a deflationary environment: in 1 year, your money actually buys you more than it did last year, let's say fo…
Good explanation. Also wrong. Denmark has a negative interest rate [1] but has had a (positive) inflation for a while [2]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_central_b... [2] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?location...
Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?
#220Earlier quoted context omitted.
This doesn't mean that the OP was wrong, but that the negative interest rate policy successfully prevented deflation.
Denmark does not use euro and their NIRP had more to do with keeping parity of krona to euro then fighting deflation.