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Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

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201–210 of 226 posts

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin has been using ASICs for over 9 years now. Maybe you're thinking of Ethereum, which just moved off GPUs last year and as a result, destroyed the economics around mining with GPUs. So, that whole wasted cycles argument doesn't really hold up any longer. Bitcoin is a store of value. I can borrow against it as collateral, which gives it real value in finance.

> Bitcoin has been using ASICs for over 9 years now. Uhh...okay? My point is obviously that it's a waste of energy. If someone manages to mine it using vacuum tubes powered by an ox on a treadmill, do I have to mention that too? > Bitcoin is a store of value. I can borrow against it as collateral, which gives it real value in finance. I'm not disputing that some people are foolish enough to agree to park their money…

> My point is obviously that it's a waste of energy.

No, it isn't. We could get into why it isn't, but we both know your mind is made up because you haven't really dived into that yourself. Or if you do really care, start reading a bit of what Dan Held has to say.

https://danhedl.medium.com/pow-is-efficient-aa3d442754d3

> That doesn't make it a stable place to do so, which is, you know, a slightly important quality in a currency.

You're missing the entire point of bitcoin. There can only be 21m. It is something that no government can compete with.

Jack Mallers had an entertaining rant recently... https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/163788645657097832...

As we are seeing right now, banks aren't a stable place. Literally, hundreds of companies were on the verge of losing everything a week ago, until the government bailed them out. USD isn't a stable place either. You probably earn dollars (ie: you buy dollars as a result of working) and those dollars are consistently worth less due to inflation every second of the day. How is that a better model?

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#202

Note that this thread will have the same Danning-Kruger level of plausible but wrong info as would a banker forum discussing "do you think ChatGPT will be able to drive cars?".

I knew it would be like this yet still clicked in and immediately regretted after reading the first couple of top level threads

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bitcoin has been using ASICs for over 9 years now. Uhh...okay? My point is obviously that it's a waste of energy. If someone manages to mine it using vacuum tubes powered by an ox on a treadmill, do I have to mention that too? > Bitcoin is a store of value. I can borrow against it as collateral, which gives it real value in finance. I'm not disputing that some people are foolish enough to agree to park their money…

> My point is obviously that it's a waste of energy. No, it isn't. We could get into why it isn't, but we both know your mind is made up because you haven't really dived into that yourself. Or if you do really care, start reading a bit of what Dan Held has to say. https://danhedl.medium.com/pow-is-efficient-aa3d442754d3 > That doesn't make it a stable place to do so, which is, you know, a slightly important quality i…

> start reading a bit of what Dan Held has to say.

Okay, I read the article. And it's an exemplar of the comical reasoning that characterizes cryptocurrency.

First he compares it to Ford's and Edison's idea of using "units of energy" as currency, which didn't work because it was hard to transfer and store. Except that Bitcoin doesn't store energy, it expends it as waste heat. A true energy currency has inherent value because the energy can be used at will to do something useful. Bitcoin can't be converted back into energy. It derives its value from the amount of energy that it has already irreversibly wasted.

Then he argues that wasting energy will "produce more efficient worldwide energy markets with Bitcoin miners performing an arbitrage of electricity between global centers"...by making energy more expensive in places where it's currently cheap. He also apparently thinks that flared methane is a form of renewable energy.

Then he adds a few non-sequiturs about "thermodynamics" to sound sciency. "Doing stuff requires energy, therefore there's no such thing as waste". LMAO. Okay.

Then he tops this steaming pile off with the argument that wasting energy will incentivize the development of nuclear fusion by making energy so expensive that we'll have no choice. And sprinkles on some bullshit about the "Kardashev Scale", as if that's a real thing that has any meaning, to hook the uber-nerds.

I'm sorry, but...give me a fucking break. The fact that this guy passes for a thinker in the Bitcoin community is why people have a hard time taking it seriously. All this nonsense about the Kardashev Scale and "efficient arbitrage" and absurd use of "incentives" makes him sound like a character on Silicon Valley.

> There can only be 21m. It is something that no government can compete with.

I'm well aware of that, I just don't see why it's a good thing. Let's say all or nearly all the Bitcoins are mined someday, and it's the world's primary currency, and it doesn't behave erratically. Economic development continues so there's an ever-increasing amount of real stuff that's worth something, but that ever-increasing value has to be represented by a constant number of coins. So every coin becomes more valuable over time. As with any deflationary scenario, if I already have money I'm going to spend as little as possible because I know it'll have more buying power the longer I wait, and that will suppress economic growth and investment. But this is even worse than typical deflation--there is zero new money being created. If I'm a young person trying to establish my career and finances, how do I ever get a piece of this pie? Not only are there few jobs because people are disincentivized from paying for anything that isn't strictly necessary, but every piece of the pie is already owned by someone and there will never be any new pie. If anything there will be less because some people will take their keys to the grave with them.

> USD isn't a stable place either.

No currency is completely stable, but USD is a hell of a lot safer than BTC. I keep my personal savings in USD. Yes, it'll have less buying power a year from now. But I know its value won't be cut in half by next week. I have no such guarantee with Bitcoin. BTC enthusiasts love to make the argument that because the dollar isn't 100% safe, you should park your money in something that's completely unsafe. It's like saying that because I might get hit by a car tomorrow, I might as well take up recreational Russian roulette.

If you want to create an alternative currency that has mainstream adoption, you have to make something that's demonstrably better for the average person. You can't just say, "well the dollar isn't perfect, so you might as well use $CRYPTO_OF_THE_WEEK". And for the love of god, don't let the idiot who wrote that article do the talking for you.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I remember it the job market was doing well up until investments banks began failing in mid 2008. That is not the case today. Many large companies have already announced major job cuts. Because governments have announced that interest rates will remain high to increase unemployment. The idea is that more unemployment means more poverty and with people too poor to pay high prices producers will have to lower their…

> As I remember it the job market was doing well up until investments banks began failing in mid 2008 It was doing pretty similar to today in unemployment % terms until 2007, when that started getting worse too, with 6 years prior to that of declining incomes for virtually the entirety of the income distribution; if you call that “well”, then right now is doing great .

According to this site, the US unemployment are was low at the beginning of 2008: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE And according to this site, it was low in the EU region: https://www.dw.com/en/europes-unemployment-rate-hits-histori...

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My point is obviously that it's a waste of energy. No, it isn't. We could get into why it isn't, but we both know your mind is made up because you haven't really dived into that yourself. Or if you do really care, start reading a bit of what Dan Held has to say. https://danhedl.medium.com/pow-is-efficient-aa3d442754d3 > That doesn't make it a stable place to do so, which is, you know, a slightly important quality i…

> start reading a bit of what Dan Held has to say. Okay, I read the article. And it's an exemplar of the comical reasoning that characterizes cryptocurrency. First he compares it to Ford's and Edison's idea of using "units of energy" as currency, which didn't work because it was hard to transfer and store. Except that Bitcoin doesn't store energy, it expends it as waste heat. A true energy currency has inherent value…

He's right though. The number of people driving their cars to the nice air conditioned bank building every day globally, so they can sit there and accept your money uses a staggering amount of energy. Bitcoin's energy usage to secure itself is tiny in comparison. Especially given that it can be used to secure an infinite amount of value, with the same energy usage.

If you don't like Bitcoin's energy usage, then there are alternatives, like Ethereum, which now consume tiny bits of energy and secure similar amounts of value.

I also don't see Bitcoin as a currency. It is a commodity, like gold. You're looking at the price of BTC against USD, I'm looking at it like "How much can I borrow against it?" You don't go into the store with a nugget of gold and plop it on the counter, you buy gold because you feel like it will maintain its value over time. I can also leverage that gold by borrowing against it, the same with Bitcoin. That is how I can use it on a daily basis.

> But I know its value won't be cut in half by next week.

In the US. Other countries are not so lucky, should they just be stuck holding the short stick?

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#208
No.

I lived through GFC and 2023 is nothing like that. Sure, some banks will go bust, especially the ones who have duration/liability mismatch. They are systematically unimportant (by definition, else they would have had stricter regulation).

Fed is also doing what common people would prefer to happen - letting equity holders go bust (aka rich people) and protecting deposits (esp 100% of the poor are helped because, again by definition, they have in practice because the rich are already savvy enough (like Thiel) to pull out their at-risk deposits and move those to SIBs. So by guaranteeing 100% deposits, Fed encourages rich to continue parking money at smaller regional banks which is again something a lot of common people want - avoiding concentration into 5 big banks.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great idea! As someone who spent time volunteering for Bernie Sanders campaign, I'll wait here while you go do that: Good luck!

I was right there with you. We're collectively too stupid or too easily manipulated to enact the change we need.

THis is true, for a lot - not All, of us :)

I've been part of campaigns where the leader actually had the brains to act right. Power, sometimes, can be tricky to handle. BUt NOtfor ALL.

There are times, when those in power, acting with not so complete picture of this situation - or the information, are prone to look stupid with hindsight. NOT the case with all, but a minority of leaders!

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was right there with you. We're collectively too stupid or too easily manipulated to enact the change we need.

Gen-Z are absolute rockstars. I like to think that part of the surprise win for Dems in 2022 was boomers passing away (possibly accelerated due to anti-vax COVID deaths) and Gen-Z really coming out in the hopes of some sort of college loan relief. Hopefully down the road the millennials and gen-z become a large enough collective that they finally push out the garbage...although the establishment wont go down without…

> Gen-Z really coming out in the hopes of some sort of college loan relief.

Do Gen-Z have enough brains to understand that any sensible college loan relief must be accompanied by stringent control how colleges raise tuition? As it stands now loan relief is an invitation to the universities to keep raising tuition without limits.

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