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Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

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201–210 of 234 posts

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#201

In simple terms, the Bank of England and UK Gov are pursuing conflicting economic policies, BoE trying to take money out of circulation through hiking up interest rates, whilst UK Gov is putting money into circulation by proposing massive debt funded tax cuts. The obvious incoherency of this then led to the markets losing confidence in the UK economy, crashing the value of the pound, which in turn makes the planned U…

Isn’t the simple option to simply reverse policies and do whatever returns confidence? No debt funded tax cuts, reduce excessive energy subsidies and so on? Sure it might be disastrous for Truss, or Government, or The Conservative party. But for the UK as a whole it must be the reasonable way out?

This is what any previous government would have done despite the embarrassment. However, in the same way our previous PM idolised Churchill, our current one idolises Thatcher who was famous for her “this lady’s not for turning” speech. This means that Liz Truss (our current PM) is highly unlikely to reverse course because in her head she’s having her “Thatcher moment” and must stay true to course in the face of any and all naysayers. This is despite the two situations being wildly different. Rather than admit any fault, the government are now trying to gaslight the entire country into believing that the currency crisis wasn’t caused by their announcement last week but by the energy crisis and covid. The whole thing is an absolute train wreck.

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#202
post #58

The Bank of England's announcement that they will restart QE (a.k.a. money printer goes brrr) on a "temporary basis" was driven off the back of UK pension funds facing massive margin calls due to the spike in gilt yields. There's a good article in the Financial Times that explains the mechanics behind it ("LDI: the better mousetrap that almost broke the UK"): https://www.ft.com/content/f4a728a5-0179-48bd-b292-f48e30f…

A cynic would say this is by design. The government created those funds to avoid paying pensions, and spend the money themselves (pension funds are designed to let the government spend all the money they collect, increasing government debt. They do not have the choice what to invest in), and this is merely a continuation of that policy. That these funds are going to crash is a certainty, they're designed to delay it…

It’ll also inflate away that pesky 2 trillion student loan debt that wasn’t ever going to be repaid, funny that!

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most popular candidate with the party members was Kemi Badenoch, a black woman, so it doesn’t seem credible that people voted against Rishi Sunak mostly because of race.

Well, supposedly the most popular was a black woman, the most competent was an Asian man, and who gets the post in the end? The most incompetent of them all, whose only advantage is being white. If that is not racism, I don't know what it is.

I reckon racism would have played a part with some of the Tory party members. However, I think Sunak’s bigger problem was that he came across as very, very swish, fake, metropolitan and brown nosey which the traditional Tory party membership (country folk) absolutely detest. The City job, the expensive suits and short trousers with loafers, the pretending to drive a car, the “my favourite tv program is Emily in Paris”, the “I’m a Coca Cola addict”, the “Thanks PM” meme. He was Team Brexit, but everything about his personality screamed Team Remain. Contrast this with Liz Truss who was Team Remain but who “welcomes any Britain to go join Ukraine and fight Putin”, bellows for tax cuts for the rich and generally presents herself as a very traditional almost rural conservative person. I think when you look at it through this lens it makes a lot more sense.

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They could have funded it by windfall taxes rather than borrowing.

No they couldn't have. The electricity companies aren't really making more money than normal, they're paying insane rates to import fossil fuels.

Energy suppliers are just middlemen and are making huge losses due to the price caps, but energy generators are making loads of money. (At least in operating profit; some - but not all - have had huge losses from writing off their Russian operations.)

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#205
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One way to stop this is to raise interest rates and pull pounds out of circulation but the government is terrified of popping the real estate bubble. I'm pretty sure i'm being naive here but... why? House ownership has become a huge problem for recent generations in the UK, I still haven't engaged with the market because it's so hard to get a foot in the door unless you have masses of disposable income. Popping the…

Not so much "the rich" as the vast majority of voters and a large section of the population. From "Rethinking the economics of land and housing": > One important effect has been on the interests and aspirations of the electorate: the last thirty years have witnessed an expansion in the number of voters who have a vested interest in the buoyancy of the housing market, and a marked decline in the constituency of voters…

This sums it up nicely. The entire UK economy is a stack of cards with home ownership at the very bottom. If property prices plummet, the whole thing goes down.

Not to mention that a large portion of MPs are also landlords so doing anything about it would not only harm the economy as a whole but would directly hurt their own income streams.

I would say that the internet has actually played a pivotal role in bringing about the situation we’re in now. Before, the rich could keep the information to themselves and rule the game. Now, the information is out there on the net for everyone to find. Now more and more people are trying to join the landlord game which leaves a smaller and smaller group of workers to actually keep the country running.

All of this was made even worse by the fact that Brexit ended up stopping the flow of people at the bottom of the pyramid keeping the whole thing up. The only way out of this situation is for companies to reduce the amount of money they pay out at the top and increase the amount they pay to the bottom, it’s the only way to avoid a housing crash. But companies will never do this voluntarily, they’ll have to be forced by a drastic legal minimum wage hike.

This likely won’t happen until Labour get in power. The problem is that this minimum wage hike, may bide some time, but will also lead to bankrupting many small to medium size businesses.

There really is no solution other than to let the house market crash as it should have done a long time ago, and to rebuild the economy based on actual productive work rather than the essentially fake money being generated through rising property prices which are outpacing wages. The problem is that if this were to happen, we are talking Great Depression scale levels of homelessness. I would say the effects may even be worse because a lot of people have become accustomed to a comfortable, modern existence and aren’t going to know how to survive if it’s taken away in the same way that people in the 1920s might have done. The one thing that might help is that technology has come such a long way with things like insulation and clothing that may lessen the worst of it.

No political party wants to be remembered as the one who caused the Depression because they will be so unpopular they may actually cease to exist. Some Tory MPs have been quoted as saying this is “an extinction level event” for the party. Some polls are showing that if an election were held tomorrow the tories would go from having 350 odd seats today, to somewhere between 3 and 70. And that’s just at the threat of mortgage rates going up to 6%, it hasn’t even happened yet.

If the conservatives went below fifty seats, the SNP would become the official opposition. For the last 100 years, the two main parties have been Labour and The Conservatives. The Tory party have been around in some form since 1834, if this were to happen (and it’s looking increasingly likely) it would be truly monumental in British politics.

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#206

In simple terms, the Bank of England and UK Gov are pursuing conflicting economic policies, BoE trying to take money out of circulation through hiking up interest rates, whilst UK Gov is putting money into circulation by proposing massive debt funded tax cuts. The obvious incoherency of this then led to the markets losing confidence in the UK economy, crashing the value of the pound, which in turn makes the planned U…

This seems pretty disingenuous to me. They aren't just choosing to pursue conflicting policy. The government acted first and FORCED the BOE to intervene to avert a crisis.

Here's potentially a better description: The new government came in and announced a series of policies that made it immediately clear to markets that inflation was not being taken seriously in the UK. This lead to a drastic, and I mean historically drastic, sell off on the long end of their bond market. Basically all capital markets in the UK were on the brink of freezing and probably shortly thereafter this would have become systemic.

This would have basically set the timer started on the UK being maybe a few weeks off from a humanitarian crisis. (if you think this is hyperbole understand that the entire energy storage capacity of UK is about 1% of their yearly use meaning capital financed energy flows are constantly necessary to keep the system running, the food situation is not that severe but still requires flows)

After all of this occurred, the BOE came in did the thing that they had zero other choice but to do which was to inject liquidity back into that segment of the bond market. I think they would be the first to tell you that this policy is a disaster. They had absolutely no choice.

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#207
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Between the tax cuts and the energy-price guarantee, the bigger problem is the energy-price guarantee that has been announced by the government. It will put a cap on fuel prices for consumers and the resulting deficit is planned to be funded by the treasury. The deficit is estimated to be more than 100 Billion pounds, and it is planned to be funded by government borrowing. This has resulted in a weaker pound.

> The deficit is estimated to be more than 100 Billion pounds If any of our US friends were wondering what that is in your currency, it's about 100 billion dollars (following our new PM's economic "experiments").

You stole my joke from yesterday! https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33009959

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#208
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bigger problem is the energy-price guarantee that Truss has announced that will put a ceiling on fuel price for consumers, with the difference born by the UK treasury - estimated outflow is more than 100 Billion pounds. This outflow is planned to be funded by borrowing, which has resulted in a weaker pound.

They really had no choice about that part. The spike (beyond their control) in energy prices was set to bankrupt hundreds or even thousands of small businesses and put many people in a situation of deciding between heat and food. The tax breaks though, were totally an own goal.

It is not beyond their control. Britain has significant amounts of gas production capacity, and they could thus pass emergency legislation to reduce the price. For instance, they could insulate the domestic market from foreign buyers by implementing export controls.

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#209

In simple terms, the Bank of England and UK Gov are pursuing conflicting economic policies, BoE trying to take money out of circulation through hiking up interest rates, whilst UK Gov is putting money into circulation by proposing massive debt funded tax cuts. The obvious incoherency of this then led to the markets losing confidence in the UK economy, crashing the value of the pound, which in turn makes the planned U…

Tax cuts aren't debt funded. Tax cuts are free. The (arguably excessive) government spending is what is debt funded.

Potato potahto.

Money comes in money goes out, the difference is made up with debt. Tweaking either the income or the outgoing knobs impacts the debt required. So a tax cut requires extra debt to make up the difference.

Re: Ask HN: What Is Happening in the UK?

#210

The banks/markets are in failing mode since 2012, with constant bailing out, quantitative easing. In USA, UE, UK... Causing banks addiction, and inflation 2020 was record money printing, causing inflation, so Liz Truss set a plan to reform quantitative easing to try reduce inflation, and the markets reacted bad The age old question, are banks to big to fail? What will happen to saving, mortgages, pensions etc... if y…

We are living in a zombie economy, the living are sacrificed to feed the dead. Bad companies, bad banks and, ultimately, bad ideas need to be allowed to die and successful ones allowed to take their place. You can’t fight the circle of life!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zombie_bank

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