Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#201

Post by User23 » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 3:00 AM UTC

kwhitefoot wrote: post #128

at_a_remove wrote: post #64

I think that you can take all of the differentiators that exist for ICE vehicles (price, reliability, status ...) and then add in some new factors: 1) Range anxiety 2) Recharge concerns (plays into range anxiety) 3) Novel technology fears (will my trusted mechanic of twenty years be able to handle this or am I stuck with the dealership?) 4) "Handling" -- will this drive like my old ICE car? Apparently a major irritat…

Range anxiety regarding electric vehicles seems to be something that mostly afflicts those who do not have an EV. I have a 2015 Model S 70D with a range of about 330 km. In the three years and 70 thousand km that I have been driving it I have had only three occasions when I was anxious about the range. Most new EVs have better range than that so most buyers of new EVs from now on should have even less reason to be co…

This might be a Europe vs America thing. In Europe you can drive for an hour and be in another country. In the USA you can drive for an hour and be in the suburbs of the city you just left.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#202

Post by dreamcompiler » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 3:09 AM UTC

zhobbs wrote: post #146

dreamcompiler wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another data point: Tesla Model 3 Performance version will go 0-60 in 3.1 seconds (not quite as fast as the Corvette's 2.9) for $52k; about $10k less than the Corvette.

Just a small correction, Model 3 performance starts at $56k. I don't like that Tesla lists price with $4.3k in "fuel savings" subtracted out, we have to call them out on that.

Good point. I forgot to click the "actual price" button.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#203

Post by nikau » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 3:17 AM UTC

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #159

lowbloodsugar wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Re: #3 - handle what? Changing the oil? Replacing the clutch. Dealing with the camshaft gears shredding and destroying engine? Fixing any part of the gear box? Of the automatic gearbox? My belt tensioner isn't. The clutch on my ac is broken. My powersteering hydraulic line came loose and sprayed all over the road. My power steering pump needs replacing (a month after the fluid got dumped). Piston ring blown. Cylinder…

> So looking forward not to have to take the car to any kind of mechanic at all except for brakes and wiper fluid. You won't even need to go to a mechanic for brakes. Regen breaking means your brake pads are rarely actually used and will probably last a million miles. AFAIK, the only maintenance item you'll likely be taking an EV to is tires.

Ironically Teslas have issues with binding brakes due to lack of use.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#204

Post by nikau » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 3:50 AM UTC

lowbloodsugar wrote: post #133

at_a_remove wrote: post #64

I think that you can take all of the differentiators that exist for ICE vehicles (price, reliability, status ...) and then add in some new factors: 1) Range anxiety 2) Recharge concerns (plays into range anxiety) 3) Novel technology fears (will my trusted mechanic of twenty years be able to handle this or am I stuck with the dealership?) 4) "Handling" -- will this drive like my old ICE car? Apparently a major irritat…

Re: #3 - handle what? Changing the oil? Replacing the clutch. Dealing with the camshaft gears shredding and destroying engine? Fixing any part of the gear box? Of the automatic gearbox? My belt tensioner isn't. The clutch on my ac is broken. My powersteering hydraulic line came loose and sprayed all over the road. My power steering pump needs replacing (a month after the fluid got dumped). Piston ring blown. Cylinder…

I hope you didn't get a Tesla as they specify an AC service every two years

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#205

Post by nikau » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 3:59 AM UTC

protastus wrote: post #199

jagger27 wrote: post #85

The differentiator for me is battery weight. Mazda can't make an electric MX-5 Miata with current battery density as it would cease to be a Miata. One of the core improvements (in my opinion) between the 3rd and 4th generation Miatas is the diet it went on, and that was only 110 lbs in the 2.0l model. The Japan-only 1.5l lost over 300 lbs over the 3rd gen. Consider the Lotus Elise and the original Tesla Roadster. The…

Yes. Cars have steadily gotten heavier and the EV conversion is making this worse. Are most drivers aware though, or only racing enthusiasts? I think on a daily driver car, the weight increase has been masked since most people drive on smooth paved roads where there's no loss of traction (especially with ABS brakes and some form of traction control being standard). ICEs have improved power and efficiency to compensat…

For most drivers the weight is hidden by 8+ speed gearboxes, powerful fuel efficient engines and sticky tires compared to cars from 20 years ago.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#206

Post by muzani » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 4:18 AM UTC

fiftyfifty wrote: post #139

neogodless wrote: post #29

56 million cars sold last year. How many do you think were bought because they do not create emissions, or because of any serious consideration of the engineering behind them? People buy a Toyota Corolla or Prius because it's below the median price, reliable and efficient. They will buy it and then never think about it again because it'll "just work." People buy a Ford F150 because they either have some real use for…

I think several of your categories nailed what the vast majority of car owners are looking for: an transportation appliance. This is where I think EVs will eventually dominate the market, the only thing you will have to worry about is plugging it in. The simplicity of the electric drive train will make them even more reliable (and efficient) than the best gas vehicles today. No more oil changes. No more random fluid…

Sounds like Apple products.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#207

Post by rsj_hn » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 4:42 AM UTC

at_a_remove wrote: post #64

I think that you can take all of the differentiators that exist for ICE vehicles (price, reliability, status ...) and then add in some new factors: 1) Range anxiety 2) Recharge concerns (plays into range anxiety) 3) Novel technology fears (will my trusted mechanic of twenty years be able to handle this or am I stuck with the dealership?) 4) "Handling" -- will this drive like my old ICE car? Apparently a major irritat…

Repairability and maintainability is the big one for me. I don't mind buying a disposable car, but then that disposable car better last 10 years (or 150K miles) and cost 15K.

If they are selling cars for 40K, then those cars need to be cheap to maintain and service, so they can stay on the road for 30 years with say, 5K parts costs over those 30 years. Or stay on the road for 40 years with 20K parts costs, etc. There are many Toyotas and Hondas as well as good trucks that last forever -- basically with a lifetime limited by body rust. If you have a 2000 Celica, even if you aren't a mechanic, a brand new retail OEM AC compressor is $700 and you can get it replaced for $100 in labor. Strut replacement will cost you $400 retail parts with maybe $250 labor. 2000 Toyota Celicas drive great, you can pick one up for 2-3K, and maintain it for $500/year, it'll last another 10 years. 20mpg city, 30 mpg highway, handles well, with nice styling. When I start seeing numbers like that for 20 year old Teslas or Leafs, I'll know they are seriously addressing the mass market of ordinary car buyers, as it is the experience of users on the tail end of a car's life that determines the depreciation paid by those who buy the car new - which is the single largest cost of ownership for new car buyers - and so long term repair costs determine the overall value provided by the car for everyone who owns it across its lifecycle, even if they are only rotating through a series of three year leases.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#208

Post by rapjr9 » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 5:08 AM UTC

Here's a perspective I see little of in the news: In the globally warmed future the big differentiator will be low carbon cost to manufacture the car and low carbon cost to operate it. So tiny cheap EV's that cover 95% of most peoples use of a car will predominate. Low carbon impact will translate to low cost and basic functionality with "luxury" or "prestige" being negative selling points for cars, phones, everything. The future is not going to look like America does today. There will be no unboxing videos because the box will be simply functional or nonexistent to reduce trash. People will focus on product quality because they need it to last a long time. Disposable anything will disappear. It's predicted there will be 9 billion people on Earth in 2050, they can't possibly all have everything that some of the wealthier people have now. Infrastructure such as roads will shrink (smaller roads, fewer of them). Otherwise the future is endless war for everyone because there won't be enough of anything. Just imagine everyone in the world having a car and the simple math makes this conclusion inevitable. The role of marketing will shift from hyping features to creating convincing arguments about product durability and quality.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#209

Post by sliken » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 6:11 AM UTC

DennisP wrote: post #161

decafninja wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with this. Most people looking at say, a Model 3, are not cross shopping it vs. say, a Chevy Bolt or Nissan Leaf. Seems like they are more cross shopping vs. a BMW 3 series or Benz C class.

Yes but my point was, the range/recharging situation is a differentiator from other electrics for now, and reasonably practical, while acceleration far exceeds most gasoline cars in its price range. From a quick google, the fastest BMW 3-series is the 330i, at 5.3 seconds 0-60. The M240i xDrive does 4.2 seconds. For a few thousand more, the Model 3 Performance does 3.1. Tesla's instant response is another fun advanta…

I was shopping around for the m235i, 330i, x1, x2 and similar vehicles. Was rather disappointed about the configuration options, terrible headlights (worse than a prius), unless you pay for the premium. Zillions of options that really should be standard, things like ski pass thru and folding seats, stock radio that was pretty disappointing, and the nav system/idrive was pretty disappointing, much like a 10+ year old smart phone.

The Tesla options were a pleasure, lr, awd, or performance, interior color, exterior color, size of the wheels, and fsd or not.

Saw quite a few horror stories about the "wonder 4 cylinder", plastic timing chain gears, issues with the high pressure fuel pump, and then BMW halved their CPO warranty. One of the bmw forums mentioned a just out of warranty engine check light, going to the dealer, getting the all clear, having the engine sieze the next day, and a $20k bill. Sure it's just a single story, the next day there were 20 pages of similar stories. I had done the research to buy one of the "good" BMWs (the 6 cyclinder, no HFP issues, and no plastic timing chain gears). But then the model 3P came out, drove quite nicely, nice speech recognition, nice nav, and acceleration that puts a smile on my face every damn time.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#210

Post by maratc » Tue, Apr 06, 2021, 8:06 AM UTC

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #181

maratc wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That car can be Smart-sized: half as long. But imagine no parking space would be needed anymore.

Roads are still roads though. And they get pretty full now. Imagine rush hour with twice the traffic.

A massive robo-taxi company is well prepared to put several people going to a same place in a single taxi. I expect the full robo-traffic to actually be less than the traffic of vehicles occupied by owner alone.