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Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

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Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#201

Post by markhahn »

bosie wrote: post #52
dharmab wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably not everyone needs a hospital bed. Most are fine to take a few days of bed rest, many who would normally be hospitalized out of caution can be cared for by family at home with teledoc guidance, it's a small percentage at high risk who need hospital care.

a small percentage of a large number is still a large number. 80% infected within 1 year and ~10% of those require hospitalization. usa: 350m => 80% is 280M => ~30 million hospital/ICU beds for 2-4 weeks. this is on top of regular/ongoing hospitalisation. hence it hitting any african country or india with the same force would be devastating.

much less than 10% require hospitalization, though.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#202

Post by markhahn »

physicles wrote: post #145
haunter wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or just watch this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM

I live in Beijing and came back early Feb after the new year holiday. We’re doing all that stuff too, even the single use tissue in the elevators. The day after I got back we found out we had a case of covid-19 in our apartment block, so we were one of the first to get restricted entry/exit — each unit gets 2 cards and you have to present it when you enter or leave through the single open gate. I did 2 weeks going ou…

It's not clear to me whether the no-new-cases in China is real, temporary or biased sampling. Lockdown is a temporary measure to prevent any new infections is betting that something will change (vaccine, season-related drop in R0). It can't go on forever without destroying the economy. Do you think it's reasonable to trust reports of no new cases? Is the sense that is just "no new symptomatic cases that get reported officially", or really none? I find it difficult to believe that there can be no new cases in a vast country where almost everyone is susceptible, but perhaps I underestimate the degree of lockdown.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#203

Post by fspeech »

superpermutat0r wrote: post #173
fspeech wrote: post #89

The South Korean model: 1. Build up testing and contact tracing capabilities. 2. Massive mask making, everyone required to wear a mask in public. 3. Hospitals reconfigured to deal with covid patients. People can then go outside and mingle again.

What kind of masks are effective? The one I have seems weird, I just feel the water vapour touching my eyes when I exhale. I guess the mask would block the sneeze/cough projectiles and small spits while talking but if I were sitting in the public transit the water vapour would float around.

Wearing a mask is to protect others from your own droplets. This is CDC protocol: if a doctor suspects covid, the patient is given a mask to put on. If that is enough to protect the doctor in close proximity, it is good enough to protect the general public. Like herd immunity if we all wear masks in public, the chance of droplet exchange is greatly reduced. The quality of mask and the manner of mask wearing become irrelevant. This is why we need universal mask wearing. It is the fastest and cheapest way to get the economy back on its foot again.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#204

Post by netsharc »

treis wrote: post #184
netsharc wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I noticed the flatten the curve graphs have a horizontal line about "available beds". It probably also represents available healthcare workers, equipment, etc. Surely this line can be made to move. E.g. when China sent a plane with doctors and equipment to Italy. Or simpler, find suitable buildings and make hospitals out of them (easier said than done, obviously).

I seem to post this everywhere, but the flatten the curve math doesn't work. There's very little excess capacity in the system and in a scenario where half the country is infect about 1% of people would get care. Even if we perfectly flattened it over the rest of the year.

Assuming the curve represents the amount of people needing hospitalization; realistically, right now, even flattened, the peak will go above that capacity limit line, and everything inside the curve but above that line are the people who need the hospital but won't get it, so... dead people?

But hey, without the flattening, the number of dead will be a shitton, and they will come fast. Probably causing social panic. With the flattening (but still not enough capacity), there will be a few deaths a day but no "Holy fuck a whole Titanic's worth of people died today"...

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#205

Post by bosie »

markhahn wrote: post #201
bosie wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a small percentage of a large number is still a large number. 80% infected within 1 year and ~10% of those require hospitalization. usa: 350m => 80% is 280M => ~30 million hospital/ICU beds for 2-4 weeks. this is on top of regular/ongoing hospitalisation. hence it hitting any african country or india with the same force would be devastating.

much less than 10% require hospitalization, though.

the beauty of the equation is that you can fiddle with the numbers as much as you want, it will always lead to a collapse of the health care system

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#206

Post by DanBC »

j7ake wrote: post #183
DanBC wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Masks are not effective unless you combine them with all the other PPE and have training in how to use them. Without those masks increase your risk. Don't wear masks. Listen to literally all the medical advice telling you not to wear masks, unless you've been advised by people treating you to wear a mask. (eg one person in a family is infected and the family is self isolating).

That is not a good argument to not wear masks. You could also say "don't wash hands" because it's not effective unless you combine them with social distancing and other quarantine measures. A preventive measure does not need 100% effectiveness to be recommended. For example, washing your hands.

No, washing hands is effective even if you don't practice social distancing.

The problem with masks is not that they aren't 100% effective, it's that they are worse than no mask. They increase risk.

The only people who should be wearing masks are healthcare professionals are people with the illness who are self-isolating in a family home.

Here's an effective mask: https://twitter.com/missemjo/status/1239520762815488000/phot...

https://twitter.com/kimbo2205/status/1238089278565031936/pho...

Why are you pushing masks to cover the nose and mouth, and not goggles to cover the eyes? Or gloves for the hands?

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#207

Post by shock »

milanove wrote: post #134
shock wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know we can count on that at this stage: https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-c...

The article said the patient showed signs of recovery and then later on started showing signs of the virus again. I don't know if that means they conducted an exit test to confirm that she was negative for coronavirus after her first bout with it. Maybe it died down in her system, but wasn't completely gone when she was deemed healthy again and later on it flared up again for some reason.

There's another man who tested negative and then again got symptoms and tested positive again: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200315_13/

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#208

Post by matt_the_bass »

fspeech wrote: post #203
superpermutat0r wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What kind of masks are effective? The one I have seems weird, I just feel the water vapour touching my eyes when I exhale. I guess the mask would block the sneeze/cough projectiles and small spits while talking but if I were sitting in the public transit the water vapour would float around.

Wearing a mask is to protect others from your own droplets. This is CDC protocol: if a doctor suspects covid, the patient is given a mask to put on. If that is enough to protect the doctor in close proximity, it is good enough to protect the general public. Like herd immunity if we all wear masks in public, the chance of droplet exchange is greatly reduced. The quality of mask and the manner of mask wearing become ir…

I don’t understand why this is not mandated now everywhere. Yes I know supplies are limited but factories could start making these quickly if govt mandated them.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#209

Post by j7ake »

DanBC wrote: post #206
j7ake wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not a good argument to not wear masks. You could also say "don't wash hands" because it's not effective unless you combine them with social distancing and other quarantine measures. A preventive measure does not need 100% effectiveness to be recommended. For example, washing your hands.

No, washing hands is effective even if you don't practice social distancing. The problem with masks is not that they aren't 100% effective, it's that they are worse than no mask. They increase risk. The only people who should be wearing masks are healthcare professionals are people with the illness who are self-isolating in a family home. Here's an effective mask: https://twitter.com/missemjo/status/12395207628154880…

If wearing masks increase risk, why are they recommending healthcare professionals and those with symptoms to wear a mask? I don't see how you can explain that masks reduce risk for healthcare professionals but increase risk if you are not. The virus is unlikely to distinguish whether you are a healthcare professional or not.

If the argument is that training is needed to use mask effectively, then simply put out a video on how to properly wear mask. This is how they push out hand washing. They have posters and videos to show how to do it properly.

Goggles to cover eyes can decrease risk, just like mask. Gloves for the hands will prevent your bare hands getting dirty but won't help the spread of of the virus onto other surfaces as you touch things throughout the day.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#210

Post by lultimouomo »

notyourday wrote: post #182
lultimouomo wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

mAb114 and REGN-EB3 have shown success with lowering the mortality rate from ~70% to about 34%; they are cures. Sure, we don't have a cure for COVID, but this has nothing to do we the fact that we have cures for totally unrelated virus-caused diseases.

> mAb114 and REGN-EB3 have shown success with lowering the mortality rate from ~70% to about 34%; That's a claim in NYT. The papers are far more cautious because there is not enough data. ZMapp, for example, showed around 40-50% decrease, was well tolerated during the West Africa outbreak but was still canceled because after more data was crunched it was not possible to attribute that decrease in mortality to ZMapp i…

You objecting to arguments I didn't make... Of course vaccines are important! But we still have cures for several virus diseases. And I forgot to mention HCV! What once was an lifelong disease (once it got chronic) can now be cured in 3 months. How's that for a cure?
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