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Ask HN: Is America in Recession?

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Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?

#21

Post by flag_fagger »

WarOnPrivacy wrote: post #3

America is in a 4 income economy - the number of typical incomes needed to reliably meet basic bills (rent,transpo,food,utils) in most markets. I've lived thru 8 recessions, none had achieved this level of difficulty. None had so completely barred new entrants to society.

I’m really curious about the 08 recession. I definitely remember some of the fallout, but I was young and insulated from much of what it meant. My parents were also lucky enough to be employed with a mortgage.

The one thing killing me in the economy is housing. Rent is up like crazy, but even more so rental criteria is ridiculous and competition is insane.

And this is in a dilapidated rust belt city with maybe one industry propping up the entire economy. It’s a bit cheaper than when I was in Florida a few years back, but not by a ton.

If I could figure out housing, all other problems would solve themselves, but it’s the one problem I can’t solve. My credit score took a battering during a long period of unemployment, and now I’m about as much of a pariah as a three time felon with two evictions, and I don’t even have an eviction.

But how was in after the 2008 crisis. How hard was it to find rent them. If you had a job, and income were the rents still ridiculous? Or was it easy enough to find a place if you had money?

Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?

#22

Post by WarOnPrivacy »

flag_fagger wrote: post #21
WarOnPrivacy wrote: post #3

America is in a 4 income economy - the number of typical incomes needed to reliably meet basic bills (rent,transpo,food,utils) in most markets. I've lived thru 8 recessions, none had achieved this level of difficulty. None had so completely barred new entrants to society.

I’m really curious about the 08 recession. I definitely remember some of the fallout, but I was young and insulated from much of what it meant. My parents were also lucky enough to be employed with a mortgage. The one thing killing me in the economy is housing. Rent is up like crazy, but even more so rental criteria is ridiculous and competition is insane. And this is in a dilapidated rust belt city with maybe one in…

> Rent is up like crazy, but even more so rental criteria is ridiculous and competition is insane.

Yes. People with solid jobs and money in the bank - people who've lived responsibly by saving before buying, almost no one will rent to them because of a zero credit score.

And we know a bit about competition too. We got our current rental in 2021. It was a FB ad, with a crayon drawing of the layout. It was up for less than 2hrs and had 50 applicants. We got it by offering 6 mos in advance + heavy security deposit.

Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?

#23

Post by nrhrjrjrjtntbt »

WarOnPrivacy wrote: post #15
nrhrjrjrjtntbt wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean the average number of full time jobs a single person needs to do to survive? or a couple? or a couple with kids?

Four incomes is the number of full-time jobs paying typical (most obtainable) wages. Presumably that would be 4 people. In my market: In mid 1990s one person could afford basic bills on typical, full-time wages. By 2007 living costs had doubled, most due to housing increases. For the next 12 years, wages and living costs mostly kept parity until 2020. During 2020, basic bills (mostly housing) rose and a typical wage-…

So for a single person you need 4 x ~$80k median income i.e. $320k for housing, health insurance, food etc. and other basics?

Or are we talking federal minimum i.e. 4 x 14k = 56k.

I guess you are talking min(min wage)

Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?

#24

Post by what »

WarOnPrivacy wrote: post #22
flag_fagger wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m really curious about the 08 recession. I definitely remember some of the fallout, but I was young and insulated from much of what it meant. My parents were also lucky enough to be employed with a mortgage. The one thing killing me in the economy is housing. Rent is up like crazy, but even more so rental criteria is ridiculous and competition is insane. And this is in a dilapidated rust belt city with maybe one in…

> Rent is up like crazy, but even more so rental criteria is ridiculous and competition is insane. Yes. People with solid jobs and money in the bank - people who've lived responsibly by saving before buying, almost no one will rent to them because of a zero credit score. And we know a bit about competition too. We got our current rental in 2021. It was a FB ad, with a crayon drawing of the layout. It was up for less…

People with solid jobs and money in the bank don’t generally have zero credit scores.

Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?

#25

Post by what »

kasey_junk wrote: post #13
ksaj wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people now forget that 50+ years ago, the husband was the sole bread winner, kept his job for most of his life, and could afford the house, car, 4 children and a few pets. I read somewhere that when women started working in the war efforts, businesses took advantage and skewed home prices and whatnot to make it so women had no choice but to continue working. This worked out well, because women wanted to work and…

“ the husband was the sole bread winner, kept his job for most of his life, and could afford the house, car, 4 children and a few pets.” We don’t _forget_ this. We refute it. It’s not true. It’s a dream that real estate developers _sold_ that wasn’t real. In 1975 the women’s labor participation rate stood right around 50% its around 55% now [0]. In 1975 the US home ownership rate was 65%, its 65% now [1]. There were…

It took me ages to find what you were referencing in [3], but it’s not inflation adjusted, so meaningless. I’ll assume the rest of your citations are equally meaningless.

Also home ownership rates, it’s by owner occupied dwellings, which would include owner occupied duplexes and triplexes. My building is technically owner occupied, he claims the in-law unit and receives mail there. But both flats are rented out.

Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?

#26

Post by bruce511 »

what wrote: post #24
WarOnPrivacy wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Rent is up like crazy, but even more so rental criteria is ridiculous and competition is insane. Yes. People with solid jobs and money in the bank - people who've lived responsibly by saving before buying, almost no one will rent to them because of a zero credit score. And we know a bit about competition too. We got our current rental in 2021. It was a FB ad, with a crayon drawing of the layout. It was up for less…

People with solid jobs and money in the bank don’t generally have zero credit scores.

It'll vary by location, but typically credit scores are a measure of -credit- management, not -money- management.

So people who are good at managing money, who tend to avoid credit, don't get a chance to demonstrate good -credit- management and hence end up with a low score.

This is one reason why getting a credit card, using it, and then paying it off in full every month is a valuable thing to do.

So for all the good money managers out there, be even smarter - build a good credit management history as a side effect of your good money management. That'll pay off in the long run.

Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?

#27

Post by kasey_junk »

what wrote: post #25
kasey_junk wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“ the husband was the sole bread winner, kept his job for most of his life, and could afford the house, car, 4 children and a few pets.” We don’t _forget_ this. We refute it. It’s not true. It’s a dream that real estate developers _sold_ that wasn’t real. In 1975 the women’s labor participation rate stood right around 50% its around 55% now [0]. In 1975 the US home ownership rate was 65%, its 65% now [1]. There were…

It took me ages to find what you were referencing in [3], but it’s not inflation adjusted, so meaningless. I’ll assume the rest of your citations are equally meaningless. Also home ownership rates, it’s by owner occupied dwellings, which would include owner occupied duplexes and triplexes. My building is technically owner occupied, he claims the in-law unit and receives mail there. But both flats are rented out.

Percentage of budget is naturally inflation adjusted…

The census owner % methodology is by respondent address. So if those are 3 addresses then that’s 33% owner occupied building. If you are all sharing an address and the landlord is the respondent then its 100% owner occupied. But importantly the methodology has been largely the same across measurement periods back to the 70s.

It gets harder before that because the census didn’t track the data.

Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?

#29

Post by bluecheese452 »

paulcole wrote: post #20
toomuchtodo wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“peak for ease of new entrance to society?” was the question you asked. Maximum earning power for anyone (minimum wage) was the answer. The lower your purchasing power, or access to purchasing power, the less ease for entrance to society, economically speaking. This coincides with the tail end of America’s post WW2 economic boom.

> Maximum earning power for anyone (minimum wage) was the answer. I think you meant to say “my answer” not “the answer.”

Why would you think that?

Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?

#30

Post by digital_sawzall »

WarOnPrivacy wrote: post #16
paulcole wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was 1968 awesome for everybody?

1968 was most awesome for white males. My mom managed to keep the family afloat on one income but she was working a higher-income job (w/ wages somewhat lower than the men below her). Winters could be tougher; we ate what we grew during the summer and didn't always have money for furnace fuel.

1968 was about 10 years after my grandparents migrated from Mexico to work at textile factories in the USA. They managed to buy a new house in a master planned community that was filled by other factory workers like themselves. He could never be mistaken for a white male, still he took english classes at night and started a side business as an umpire for baseball games and my grandmother started selling gold to the other factory workers during lunch time. They raised 3 kids, upgraded their house, bought a triplex, and a couple acre investment property.

Could any factory worker do that today?

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